People who take their baseball statistics seriously usually have little patience for the RBI. It often measures opportunity more than production and has been used by fans to prop up the reputations of some pretty mediocre hitters. The player that comes to mind first in this context is Joe Carter and for good reason. Here is a list of the worst hitters (ranked by OPS divided by league OPS) to knock in 100 runs:
Year Name RBI OPS LOPS OPS+
1997 Joe Carter 102 .683 .768 .889
1895 Lave Cross 101 .684 .761 .899
1993 Ruben Sierra 101 .678 .745 .910
1894 Lou Bierbauer 107 .743 .814 .913
1893 Farmer Vaughn 108 .703 .736 .955
1936 Marv Owen 105 .750 .784 .957
2000 Paul O'Neill 100 .760 .792 .960
2004 Tony Batista 110 .728 .756 .963
1996 Travis Fryman 100 .766 .795 .963
1990 Joe Carter 115 .681 .704 .967
1983 Tony Armas 107 .707 .728 .972
1929 H. Kelly 103 .760 .783 .972
1897 Kid Gleason 106 .722 .741 .975
1897 Billy Shindle 105 .723 .741 .976
1934 Ray Pepper 101 .732 .750 .977
1899 Herman Long 100 .697 .710 .982
1896 Heinie Reitz 106 .728 .741 .982
1996 Joe Carter 107 .782 .795 .983
1953 Ray Jablonski 112 .735 .747 .985
2000 Joe Randa 106 .781 .792 .986
Where: OPS - the player's OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) that year
LOPS - the league's OPS that year
OPS+ - OPS / LOPS
Not only does Joe Carter top this list, but he is the only player listed more than once, holding down the 10th and 18th slots as well. If I had extended this list to the worst 200 seasons (out of the 1625 seasons with 100 or more RBIs), Joe Carter would have had seven entries on the list and no one else would have appeared more than three times. This combination, mediocre hitting and high RBI totals, have caused many people in the baseball research community to view Carter as a highly overrated player. But was he? How much of Carter's success was due to the hitters getting on base ahead of him and how much to his performance in RBI situations? My first attempt at answering this was to take his performance in 1990 (when he knocked in 115 runs with a .232 batting average) and break it down by each of the 24 game situations (with outs ranging from zero to two and men on base going from bases empty to full). I next tackled the age-old question: how many RBIs would Joe have had batting cleanup for the 1967 White Sox? Here's the inevitable chart leading up to my guess. On the left is the number of plate appearances Carter had in each of the 24 game situations and the number of RBIs he got in them. On the right, is the number of plate appearances the clean-up hitter for the 1967 White Sox had in the same situations:
------ Joe Carter ------ 1967 CHI A
Times Up RBIs Times Up
MenOn 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2
--- 154 101 81 5 2 3 208 83 84
F-- 31 46 53 3 8 7 29 38 54
-S- 5 21 26 1 7 3 12 25 41
FS- 8 28 29 1 5 11 11 16 13
--T 4 4 15 1 0 6 3 8 24
F-T 4 13 16 4 8 3 0 7 5
-ST 3 15 15 4 7 3 2 10 1
FST 4 10 11 3 14 6 1 1 7
Assuming Carter hit as well as each of the 24 situations (and we wouldn't want to detract from his clutch ability), our 1967 version would've produced 82 RBIs instead of 115. The surprising conclusion from all of this is that it's better having Roberto Alomar and Tony Gwynn hitting in front of you than Ken Berry and Tommy McCraw.
But what if we had replaced Carter in the San Diego lineup with someone else? How many runs would an average hitter had driven in while batting in the same situations as Carter? To determine this, I first figured out the average number of RBIs in each of the 24 game situations. Next, I calculated the number of times each hitter got up in these situations and, using the data from the first step, came up with the RBIs an average hitter would've ended up with. Finally, I subtracted his expected from actual RBIs to yield his RBI production. This method effectively levels the playing field--a lead-off hitter is no longer hurt by batting so frequently with the bases empty, and the expectations for a hitter like Carter, who got up over 240 times in 1990 with men in scoring position, would rise in accordance with his opportunities to drive in those extra runs.
To continue picking on Joe Carter, here's his breakdown, compared to the league average RBIs in each situation:
------ Joe Carter ------ 1990 NL
Times Up RBIs Average RBIs/AB
MenOn 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2
--- 148 96 77 5 2 3 .023 .020 .021
F-- 29 44 50 3 8 7 .061 .070 .067
-S- 5 20 22 1 7 3 .130 .140 .169
FS- 8 26 26 1 5 11 .220 .252 .242
--T 4 4 15 1 0 6 .484 .492 .223
F-T 4 13 16 4 8 3 .537 .579 .313
-ST 3 15 15 4 7 3 .518 .505 .289
FST 4 10 11 3 14 6 .733 .828 .503
Now, the left-hand side of this table is a little different than the my earlier one because, except for the bases-loaded case, I've removed walks and hit-by-pitches from the equation. My feeling is that I didn't want to penalize hitters with a good eye (or an elbow in the strike zone). I suppose some might disagree with this, but one criticism of RBIs is that it rewards players who swing at everything. One example: from 1995 to 1997, Barry Bonds walked 122 more times than Joe Carter with men in scoring position. Part of this was a huge disparity in intentional walks and in a lot of other cases Bonds' reputation caused pitchers to simply pitch around him. For years, Boston sportswriters criticized Ted Williams for not expanding his strike zone with men in scoring position. I tend to side with Ted on this one.
Back to the chart, an average hitter with 148 times up with no outs and none on would be expected drive in about three and a half runs. Carter drove in five. If you complete the table, you end up with an expected RBI total of 89. Subtracting this from the 115 runs he actually drove in, it turns out that he accounted for 26 MORE runs than an average player would've in the same situations. Frankly, this is not what I expected to find. I mean, this is a guy who hit .232 and, while he had some power, 24 home runs is not a tremendous amount for an outfielder. He hit somewhat better with men in scoring position, but a .267 batting average (with 7 home runs) doesn't seem to account for all those extra RBIs. In the 1991 Elias Baseball Analyst, they tried to explain this by noting the extra opportunities and concluding that "RBIs are not an equal opportunity statistic." But given the same opportunities, an average hitter would've had 26 fewer RBIs.
How did he do it? Here's how he hit with each of the eight combinations of men on base:
MenOn AB H 2B 3B HR SF RBI ERBI --- 321 68 12 0 10 0 10 7.6 F-- 123 28 7 0 7 0 18 8.7 -S- 47 11 2 0 1 0 11 8.6 FS- 60 14 3 0 2 0 17 15.7 --T 18 5 0 0 2 0 7 5.9 F-T 26 8 0 1 0 4 15 14.8 -ST 18 6 2 0 0 2 14 11.0 FST 21 7 1 0 2 2 23 16.7
A single isn't going to do much for your RBI totals with a man on first. In those situations, Carter produced 9.3 more RBIs than expected, despite a .228 batting average, by hitting a lot of doubles and home runs. He exceeded expectations nearly as much with the bases loaded, courtesy of two grand-slams and a batting average over .300. It's not too hard to see why Elias missed this: the first situation was lumped with the bases-empty case, while the 22 at-bats with the bases loaded were too few to noticeably raise his average with men in scoring position.
One other thing that helped was the performance of his runners on base. In 1990, a runner typically scored from second on 60.9% of singles. Joe Carter hit 25 singles that year with a man on second. The runner scored 23 times, or 8 more than you'd expect. This might be due to the speed of the runners ahead of him (Bip Roberts, Roberto Alomar and Tony Gwynn), the type of singles Joe Carter hit (or more to the point, how deep the outfielders played when he was at the plate), or the luck of the draw.
Finally, one of the reason why people viewed Joe Carter as a mediocre hitter was his low on-base percentage, which was primarily due to his low walk totals. An inability to walk, however, does not prevent you from driving in runs. As mentioned above, we try not to penalize batters who drew a lot of walks by ignoring all but bases loaded walks from our study, but at the same time we do not in any way penalize batters who seldom walk.
Here are the top marks in RBI production from 1960 to 2004Note 1:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO
Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 137 52.3 84.7
Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 147 65.6 81.4
Sammy Sosa 1998 CHI N 158 78.1 79.9
Mark McGwire 1999 STL N 147 68.7 78.3
Roger Maris 1961 NY A 141 67.2 73.8
Harmon Killebrew 1969 MIN A 140 67.7 72.3
Sammy Sosa 2001 CHI N 160 88.4 71.6
Jim Gentile 1961 BAL A 141 72.0 69.0
Andres Galarraga 1996 COL N 150 81.9 68.1
Willie Stargell 1971 PIT N 125 59.0 66.0
Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A 121 55.2 65.8
Billy Williams 1972 CHI N 122 56.4 65.6
Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 110 44.4 65.6
Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A 128 63.3 64.7
Willie Mays 1962 SF N 141 76.4 64.6
Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 126 61.7 64.3
Luis Gonzalez 2001 ARI N 142 77.9 64.1
Ken Griffey 1997 SEA A 147 83.0 64.0
Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 137 73.4 63.6
Orlando Cepeda 1961 SF N 142 78.9 63.1
Where: ERBI - expected RBIs
RPRO - RBIs minus expected RBIs
I thought it was odd that four of the top 20 marks were from 1961.
And the worst marks:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 35 72.9 -37.9 David Eckstein 2004 ANA A 35 72.7 -37.7 Luis Castillo 2000 FLA N 17 53.1 -36.1 Darren Lewis 1999 BOS A 40 74.1 -34.1 Joey Cora 1998 SEA-CLE 32 65.8 -33.8 Omar Vizquel 1993 SEA A 31 64.0 -33.0 Gary Disarcina 1997 ANA A 47 79.9 -32.9 Sonny Jackson 1966 HOU N 25 57.8 -32.8 Felix Fermin 1989 CLE A 21 53.7 -32.7 Cristian Guzman 1999 MIN A 26 58.5 -32.5 Gary Pettis 1987 CAL A 17 49.2 -32.2 Rey Sanchez 2000 KC A 38 70.1 -32.1 Brian Hunter 1999 DET-SEA 34 65.6 -31.6 Ryan Freel 2004 CIN N 28 59.4 -31.4 Tony Womack 1998 PIT N 45 76.2 -31.2 Enzo Hernandez 1971 SD N 11 42.0 -31.0 Tom Goodwin 1996 KC A 35 65.6 -30.6 Harold Reynolds 1987 SEA A 35 65.5 -30.5 Brian Hunter 1997 DET A 45 75.1 -30.1 Larry Bowa 1977 PHI N 41 71.0 -30.0
The league leaders from 1960 to 2004:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO Roger Maris 1960 NY A 112 64.1 47.9 Roger Maris 1961 NY A 141 67.2 73.8 Harmon Killebrew 1962 MIN A 126 68.4 57.6 Al Kaline 1963 DET A 101 59.1 41.9 Mickey Mantle 1964 NY A 111 58.2 52.8 Willie Horton 1965 DET A 104 61.9 42.1 Frank Robinson 1966 BAL A 122 63.3 58.7 Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A 121 55.2 65.8 Frank Howard 1968 WAS A 106 59.9 46.1 Harmon Killebrew 1969 MIN A 140 67.7 72.3 Frank Howard 1970 WAS A 126 66.1 59.9 Harmon Killebrew 1971 MIN A 119 72.2 46.8 Dick Allen 1972 CHI A 113 52.0 61.0 Reggie Jackson 1973 OAK A 117 72.9 44.1 Jeff Burroughs 1974 TEX A 118 71.0 47.0 George Scott 1975 MIL A 109 65.0 44.0 Lee May 1976 BAL A 108 66.6 41.4 Reggie Jackson 1977 NY A 110 67.8 42.2 Jim Rice 1978 BOS A 139 76.6 62.4 Fred Lynn 1979 BOS A 122 65.9 56.1 George Brett 1980 KC A 118 61.7 56.3 Eddie Murray 1981 BAL A 78 50.3 27.7 Hal McRae 1982 KC A 133 79.1 53.9 Jim Rice 1983 BOS A 126 85.6 40.4 Dave Kingman 1984 OAK A 118 75.1 42.9 Don Mattingly 1985 NY A 145 93.0 52.0 Jose Canseco 1986 OAK A 117 79.7 37.3 George Bell 1987 TOR A 134 89.1 44.9 Jose Canseco 1988 OAK A 124 77.9 46.1 Ruben Sierra 1989 TEX A 119 82.8 36.2 Cecil Fielder 1990 DET A 132 79.4 52.6 Cecil Fielder 1991 DET A 133 83.6 49.4 Mark McGwire 1992 OAK A 104 54.4 49.6 Frank Thomas 1993 CHI A 128 76.8 51.2 Frank Thomas 1994 CHI A 101 60.9 40.1 Albert Belle 1995 CLE A 126 76.3 49.7 Albert Belle 1996 CLE A 148 92.7 55.3 Ken Griffey 1997 SEA A 147 83.0 64.0 Albert Belle 1998 CHI A 152 91.6 60.4 Rafael Palmeiro 1999 TEX A 148 85.1 62.9 Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 137 73.4 63.6 Jim Thome 2001 CLE A 124 71.7 52.3 Alex Rodriguez 2002 TEX A 142 80.3 61.7 Carlos Delgado 2003 TOR A 145 86.4 58.6 David Ortiz 2004 BOS A 139 90.3 48.7
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO Eddie Mathews 1960 MIL N 115 63.2 51.8 Orlando Cepeda 1961 SF N 142 78.9 63.1 Willie Mays 1962 SF N 141 76.4 64.6 Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 115 58.1 56.9 Willie Mays 1964 SF N 111 55.0 56.0 Willie Mays 1965 SF N 112 56.7 55.3 Willie Mays 1966 SF N 103 53.2 49.8 Hank Aaron 1967 ATL N 105 51.2 53.8 Willie McCovey 1968 SF N 105 58.9 46.1 Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 126 61.7 64.3 Johnny Bench 1970 CIN N 148 87.1 60.9 Willie Stargell 1971 PIT N 125 59.0 66.0 Billy Williams 1972 CHI N 122 56.4 65.6 Willie Stargell 1973 PIT N 119 57.2 61.8 Mike Schmidt 1974 PHI N 116 67.0 49.0 Willie Stargell 1975 PIT N 90 49.3 40.7 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 111 64.3 46.7 George Foster 1977 CIN N 149 93.1 55.9 Dave Parker 1978 PIT N 117 62.2 54.8 Dave Winfield 1979 SD N 118 66.8 51.2 Mike Schmidt 1980 PHI N 121 68.6 52.4 Mike Schmidt 1981 PHI N 91 47.8 43.2 Dale Murphy 1982 ATL N 109 73.3 35.7 Dale Murphy 1983 ATL N 121 69.1 51.9 Mike Schmidt 1984 PHI N 106 68.5 37.5 Dave Parker 1985 CIN N 125 80.5 44.5 Mike Schmidt 1986 PHI N 119 68.2 50.8 Andre Dawson 1987 CHI N 137 81.4 55.6 D. Strawberry 1988 NY N 101 61.2 39.8 Kevin Mitchell 1989 SF N 125 66.9 58.1 Barry Bonds 1990 PIT N 114 64.8 49.2 Will Clark 1991 SF N 116 63.0 53.0 Darren Daulton 1992 PHI N 109 58.7 50.3 Barry Bonds 1993 SF N 123 61.5 61.5 Jeff Bagwell 1994 HOU N 116 61.5 54.5 Dante Bichette 1995 COL N 128 76.8 51.2 Andres Galarraga 1996 COL N 150 81.9 68.1 Jeff Bagwell 1997 HOU N 135 79.4 55.6 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 147 65.6 81.4 Mark McGwire 1999 STL N 147 68.7 78.3 Todd Helton 2000 COL N 147 88.6 58.4 Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 137 52.3 84.7 Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 110 44.4 65.6 Albert Pujols 2003 STL N 124 69.8 54.2 Barry Bonds 2004 SF N 101 41.7 59.3
The highest RBI Production value from 1960 to 2004 was Barry Bond's 84.7 in 2001. In the past few years, Bonds has had amazingly few RBI opportunities, since he is walked often with men on base. Here is the chart again showing how Joe Carter hit with men on base:
MenOn AB H 2B 3B HR SF RBI ERBI --- 321 68 12 0 10 0 10 7.6 F-- 123 28 7 0 7 0 18 8.7 -S- 47 11 2 0 1 0 11 8.6 FS- 60 14 3 0 2 0 17 15.7 --T 18 5 0 0 2 0 7 5.9 F-T 26 8 0 1 0 4 15 14.8 -ST 18 6 2 0 0 2 14 11.0 FST 21 7 1 0 2 2 23 16.7
The same chart for Bonds in 2001:
MenOn AB H 2B 3B HR SF RBI ERBI --- 278 82 12 2 46 0 46 9.7 F-- 109 40 9 0 14 0 32 10.1 -S- 27 12 5 0 4 0 13 5.2 FS- 31 10 2 0 3 0 16 8.4 --T 11 4 0 0 3 1 10 6.7 F-T 12 3 1 0 1 0 5 5.9 -ST 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 1.5 FST 6 4 2 0 2 1 13 4.9
Because of all his walks, Bonds got up much less in all situations, but he got up far less frequently in RBI opportunities. Carter got up 198 times with men in scoring position. Bonds managed to knock in 137 runs in 2001, despite getting up only 91 times with men in scoring position. If Bonds had had the same opportunities as Joe Carter, and had performed at the same level in those additional opportunities, Barry Bonds would have driven in 233 runs that year.
This got me to wondering who had the highest expected RBI total from 1960 to 2004.
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO Miguel Tejada 2004 BAL A 150 114.3 35.7 Mike Sweeney 2000 KC A 144 113.9 30.1 Paul Molitor 1996 MIN A 113 111.6 1.4 Bret Boone 2001 SEA A 141 111.3 29.7 Derek Bell 1996 HOU N 113 107.8 5.2 Manny Ramirez 1999 CLE A 165 104.1 60.9 Carlos Delgado 1999 TOR A 134 104.1 29.9 Dean Palmer 1998 KC A 119 103.9 15.1 Jay Buhner 1996 SEA A 138 103.2 34.8 Jim Rice 1986 BOS A 110 102.1 7.9
It's probably not too surprising that most of these are from the last ten years.
The league trailers each year from 1960 to 2004:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO Ken Hamlin 1960 KC A 24 50.0 -26.0 Nellie Fox 1961 CHI A 51 76.2 -25.2 Luis Aparicio 1962 CHI A 40 66.8 -26.8 Nellie Fox 1963 CHI A 42 66.9 -24.9 Billy Moran 1964 LAA-CLE 21 39.4 -18.4 Dick Howser 1965 CLE A 6 22.9 -16.9 Zoilo Versalles 1966 MIN A 36 53.5 -17.5 Ruben Amaro 1967 NY A 17 37.1 -20.1 Mark Belanger 1968 BAL A 21 47.4 -26.4 Bert Campaneris 1969 OAK A 25 48.7 -23.7 Horace Clarke 1970 NY A 46 70.0 -24.0 Ed Brinkman 1971 DET A 37 57.0 -20.0 Rick Auerbach 1972 MIL A 30 49.1 -19.1 Mark Belanger 1973 BAL A 27 54.3 -27.3 Dave Chalk 1974 CAL A 31 55.6 -24.6 Paul Blair 1975 BAL A 31 53.7 -22.7 Bob Randall 1976 MIN A 34 55.8 -21.8 Bert Campaneris 1977 TEX A 46 70.6 -24.6 Julio Cruz 1978 SEA A 25 48.6 -23.6 Alfredo Griffin 1979 TOR A 31 60.6 -29.6 Rick Burleson 1980 BOS A 51 73.5 -22.5 John Wathan 1981 KC A 19 35.3 -16.3 Larry Milbourne 1982 3 Teams 26 48.6 -22.6 Rick Manning 1983 CLE-MIL 43 69.0 -26.0 Jackie Gutierrez 1984 BOS A 29 56.5 -27.5 Jack Perconte 1985 SEA A 23 51.9 -28.9 Spike Owen 1986 SEA-BOS 45 71.2 -26.2 Gary Pettis 1987 CAL A 17 49.2 -32.2 Ozzie Guillen 1988 CHI A 39 62.0 -23.0 Felix Fermin 1989 CLE A 21 53.7 -32.7 Pete O'Brien 1990 SEA A 27 50.4 -23.4 Luis Sojo 1991 CAL A 20 46.6 -26.6 Omar Vizquel 1992 SEA A 21 45.9 -24.9 Omar Vizquel 1993 SEA A 31 64.0 -33.0 Mark McLemore 1994 BAL A 29 52.7 -23.7 Otis Nixon 1995 TEX A 45 72.2 -27.2 Tom Goodwin 1996 KC A 35 65.6 -30.6 Gary Disarcina 1997 ANA A 47 79.9 -32.9 Joey Cora 1998 SEA-CLE 32 65.8 -33.8 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 35 72.9 -37.9 Rey Sanchez 2000 KC A 38 70.1 -32.1 David Eckstein 2001 ANA A 41 69.8 -28.8 Neifi Perez 2002 KC A 37 63.4 -26.4 Luis Rivas 2003 MIN A 43 67.3 -24.3 David Eckstein 2004 ANA A 35 72.7 -37.7
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO Julian Javier 1960 STL N 21 45.3 -24.3 Maury Wills 1961 LA N 31 57.1 -26.1 Julian Javier 1962 STL N 39 66.0 -27.0 Julian Javier 1963 STL N 46 66.3 -20.3 Maury Wills 1964 LA N 34 53.2 -19.2 Glenn Beckert 1965 CHI N 29 52.1 -23.1 Sonny Jackson 1966 HOU N 25 57.8 -32.8 Sonny Jackson 1967 HOU N 24 43.7 -19.7 Hal Lanier 1968 SF N 27 49.0 -22.0 Hal Lanier 1969 SF N 35 57.2 -22.2 Glenn Beckert 1970 CHI N 36 63.5 -27.5 Enzo Hernandez 1971 SD N 11 42.0 -31.0 Marty Perez 1972 ATL N 28 50.5 -22.5 Felix Millan 1973 NY N 37 65.6 -28.6 Larry Bowa 1974 PHI N 36 65.8 -29.8 Tim Foli 1975 MON N 29 54.5 -25.5 Frank Taveras 1976 PIT N 24 45.0 -21.0 Larry Bowa 1977 PHI N 41 71.0 -30.0 Ivan DeJesus 1978 CHI N 35 61.5 -26.5 Larry Bowa 1979 PHI N 31 59.0 -28.0 Ozzie Smith 1980 SD N 35 62.3 -27.3 Ozzie Smith 1981 SD N 21 37.1 -16.1 Ozzie Smith 1982 STL N 43 64.1 -21.1 Doug Flynn 1983 MON N 26 53.3 -27.3 Doug Flynn 1984 MON N 17 36.8 -19.8 Rafael Santana 1985 NY N 29 56.5 -27.5 Vince Coleman 1986 STL N 29 56.1 -27.1 Vince Coleman 1987 STL N 43 65.6 -22.6 Willie McGee 1988 STL N 50 67.5 -17.5 Vince Coleman 1989 STL N 28 50.6 -22.6 Jose Uribe 1990 SF N 24 46.0 -22.0 Brett Butler 1991 LA N 38 54.7 -16.7 Brett Butler 1992 LA N 39 58.3 -19.3 Otis Nixon 1993 ATL N 24 50.0 -26.0 Darren Lewis 1994 SF N 29 49.1 -20.1 Kevin Stocker 1995 PHI N 32 56.5 -24.5 Rey Ordonez 1996 NY N 30 57.3 -27.3 Edgar Renteria 1997 FLA N 52 73.3 -21.3 Tony Womack 1998 PIT N 45 76.2 -31.2 Tony Womack 1999 ARI N 41 70.5 -29.5 Luis Castillo 2000 FLA N 17 53.1 -36.1 Placido Polanco 2001 STL N 38 62.7 -24.7 Doug Glanville 2002 PHI N 29 52.0 -23.0 Cesar Izturis 2003 LA N 40 66.1 -26.1 Ryan Freel 2004 CIN N 28 59.4 -31.4
One of the things that struck me about the leaders above was the presence of several members of the Colorado Rockies. So it seems that a park factor is in order here. I used the same three-year averaged park factor that I used in my article on the Value Added method. At the same time I decided to take into account the level of offense in each league when comparing across eras. With an assist from Ralph Caola, I decided to divide each player's park adjusted RBI Production by the average number of runs scored in the league that season to determine his RBI Production "Wins" that season. Note 2 The top seasons after this adjustment:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW
Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 137 52.3 84.7 .926 48.4 88.6 9.4
Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 147 65.6 81.4 .990 64.9 82.1 8.9
Harmon Killebrew 1969 MIN A 140 67.7 72.3 1.034 70.0 70.0 8.5
Dick Allen 1972 CHI A 113 52.0 61.0 1.037 53.8 59.2 8.5
Roger Maris 1961 NY A 141 67.2 73.8 .949 63.8 77.2 8.4
Sammy Sosa 1998 CHI N 158 78.1 79.9 1.037 81.0 77.0 8.4
Willie Stargell 1971 PIT N 125 59.0 66.0 1.021 60.2 64.8 8.3
Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 126 61.7 64.3 .989 61.0 65.0 8.0
Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A 121 55.2 65.8 1.117 61.7 59.3 8.0
Mark McGwire 1999 STL N 147 68.7 78.3 .985 67.7 79.3 7.9
Sammy Sosa 2001 CHI N 160 88.4 71.6 .967 85.5 74.5 7.9
Jim Gentile 1961 BAL A 141 72.0 69.0 .972 70.0 71.0 7.8
Billy Williams 1972 CHI N 122 56.4 65.6 1.109 62.5 59.5 7.7
Willie Stargell 1973 PIT N 119 57.2 61.8 .966 55.2 63.8 7.7
Frank Robinson 1966 BAL A 122 63.3 58.7 .992 62.8 59.2 7.6
Kevin Mitchell 1989 SF N 125 66.9 58.1 .972 65.0 60.0 7.6
Frank Howard 1970 WAS A 126 66.1 59.9 .960 63.4 62.6 7.5
Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 110 44.4 65.6 .970 43.1 66.9 7.5
Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 115 58.1 56.9 1.000 58.1 56.9 7.4
Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A 128 63.3 64.7 .963 61.0 67.0 7.3
Where: ParkF - park factor
ER/P - expected runs adjusted for park factor
RP/P - RBI production adjusted for park factor
RPRW - RBI production wins
The worst seasons:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW Neifi Perez 2000 COL N 71 90.6 -19.6 1.291 117.0 -46.0 -4.6 Neifi Perez 1998 COL N 59 79.6 -20.6 1.250 99.5 -40.5 -4.4 Walt Weiss 1995 COL N 25 48.5 -23.5 1.333 64.7 -39.7 -4.3 Ivan DeJesus 1978 CHI N 35 61.5 -26.5 1.128 69.4 -34.4 -4.3 Walt Weiss 1996 COL N 48 66.2 -18.2 1.289 85.4 -37.4 -4.0 Larry Bowa 1974 PHI N 36 65.8 -29.8 1.050 69.1 -33.1 -4.0 Felix Fermin 1989 CLE A 21 53.7 -32.7 1.019 54.7 -33.7 -3.9 Mark Belanger 1968 BAL A 21 47.4 -26.4 1.003 47.5 -26.5 -3.9 Glenn Beckert 1970 CHI N 36 63.5 -27.5 1.129 71.7 -35.7 -3.9 Larry Bowa 1971 PHI N 25 53.3 -28.3 1.026 54.7 -29.7 -3.8 Joey Cora 1998 SEA-CLE 32 65.8 -33.8 1.053 69.2 -37.2 -3.7 Enzo Hernandez 1971 SD N 11 42.0 -31.0 .955 40.1 -29.1 -3.7 Larry Bowa 1977 PHI N 41 71.0 -30.0 1.039 73.8 -32.8 -3.7 Julian Javier 1962 STL N 39 66.0 -27.0 1.105 72.9 -33.9 -3.7 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 35 72.9 -37.9 1.012 73.8 -38.8 -3.6 Neifi Perez 2002 KC A 37 63.4 -26.4 1.132 71.8 -34.8 -3.6 Sonny Jackson 1966 HOU N 25 57.8 -32.8 .947 54.8 -29.8 -3.6 David Eckstein 2004 ANA A 35 72.7 -37.7 .972 70.6 -35.6 -3.5 Omar Vizquel 1993 SEA A 31 64.0 -33.0 1.008 64.6 -33.6 -3.5 Tony Womack 1998 PIT N 45 76.2 -31.2 1.016 77.4 -32.4 -3.5
The league leaders:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW Roger Maris 1960 NY A 112 64.1 47.9 0.932 59.7 52.3 5.9 Roger Maris 1961 NY A 141 67.2 73.8 0.949 63.8 77.2 8.4 Harmon Killebrew 1962 MIN A 126 68.4 57.6 1.035 70.7 55.3 6.2 Al Kaline 1963 DET A 101 59.1 41.9 1.042 61.6 39.4 4.8 Mickey Mantle 1964 NY A 111 58.2 52.8 1.010 58.8 52.2 6.4 Willie Horton 1965 DET A 104 61.9 42.1 1.026 63.5 40.5 5.1 Frank Robinson 1966 BAL A 122 63.3 58.7 0.992 62.8 59.2 7.6 Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A 121 55.2 65.8 1.117 61.7 59.3 8.0 Frank Howard 1968 WAS A 106 59.9 46.1 0.967 57.9 48.1 7.0 Harmon Killebrew 1969 MIN A 140 67.7 72.3 1.034 70.0 70.0 8.5 Frank Howard 1970 WAS A 126 66.1 59.9 0.960 63.4 62.6 7.5 Harmon Killebrew 1971 MIN A 119 72.2 46.8 1.029 74.3 44.7 5.7 Dick Allen 1972 CHI A 113 52.0 61.0 1.037 53.8 59.2 8.5 Reggie Jackson 1973 OAK A 117 72.9 44.1 0.933 68.0 49.0 5.7 Jeff Burroughs 1974 TEX A 118 71.0 47.0 0.981 69.6 48.4 5.9 George Scott 1975 MIL A 109 65.0 44.0 1.013 65.9 43.1 5.0 Lee May 1976 BAL A 108 66.6 41.4 0.945 62.9 45.1 5.6 Reggie Jackson 1977 NY A 110 67.8 42.2 0.985 66.8 43.2 4.7 Jim Rice 1978 BOS A 139 76.6 62.4 1.107 84.8 54.2 6.4 Fred Lynn 1979 BOS A 122 65.9 56.1 1.072 70.6 51.4 5.4 George Brett 1980 KC A 118 61.7 56.3 0.997 61.5 56.5 6.3 Tony Armas 1981 OAK A 76 48.7 27.3 0.951 46.3 29.7 3.6 Hal McRae 1982 KC A 133 79.1 53.9 1.004 79.4 53.6 6.0 Cecil Cooper 1983 MIL A 126 91.8 34.2 0.931 85.5 40.5 4.5 Dave Kingman 1984 OAK A 118 75.1 42.9 0.930 69.9 48.1 5.4 Don Mattingly 1985 NY A 145 93.0 52.0 0.974 90.5 54.5 5.9 Jose Canseco 1986 OAK A 117 79.7 37.3 0.930 74.1 42.9 4.6 Mark McGwire 1987 OAK A 118 76.7 41.3 0.927 71.1 46.9 4.7 Jose Canseco 1988 OAK A 124 77.9 46.1 0.963 75.0 49.0 5.6 Bo Jackson 1989 KC A 105 70.4 34.6 0.982 69.1 35.9 4.1 Cecil Fielder 1990 DET A 132 79.4 52.6 1.025 81.4 50.6 5.8 Jose Canseco 1991 OAK A 122 76.7 45.3 0.940 72.1 49.9 5.6 Mark McGwire 1992 OAK A 104 54.4 49.6 0.961 52.3 51.7 6.0 Frank Thomas 1993 CHI A 128 76.8 51.2 0.986 75.7 52.3 5.5 Frank Thomas 1994 CHI A 101 60.9 40.1 0.981 59.8 41.2 3.9 Albert Belle 1995 CLE A 126 76.3 49.7 0.987 75.3 50.7 4.9 Albert Belle 1996 CLE A 148 92.7 55.3 0.996 92.4 55.6 5.1 Ken Griffey 1997 SEA A 147 83.0 64.0 1.001 83.1 63.9 6.4 Albert Belle 1998 CHI A 152 91.6 60.4 1.002 91.8 60.2 5.9 Rafael Palmeiro 1999 TEX A 148 85.1 62.9 1.055 89.8 58.2 5.5 Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 137 73.4 63.6 0.975 71.5 65.5 6.1 Jason Giambi 2001 OAK A 120 70.3 49.7 0.990 69.6 50.4 5.1 Alex Rodriguez 2002 TEX A 142 80.3 61.7 1.091 87.6 54.4 5.6 Carlos Delgado 2003 TOR A 145 86.4 58.6 1.036 89.5 55.5 5.7 David Ortiz 2004 BOS A 139 90.3 48.7 1.080 97.6 41.4 4.1
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW Eddie Mathews 1960 MIL N 115 63.2 51.8 0.925 58.4 56.6 6.7 Orlando Cepeda 1961 SF N 142 78.9 63.1 0.981 77.4 64.6 7.1 Willie Mays 1962 SF N 141 76.4 64.6 0.989 75.5 65.5 7.2 Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 115 58.1 56.9 1.000 58.1 56.9 7.4 Willie Mays 1964 SF N 111 55.0 56.0 1.008 55.4 55.6 6.9 Willie Mays 1965 SF N 112 56.7 55.3 1.049 59.5 52.5 6.5 Willie Mays 1966 SF N 103 53.2 49.8 1.020 54.3 48.7 5.9 Hank Aaron 1967 ATL N 105 51.2 53.8 1.015 52.0 53.0 6.9 Willie McCovey 1968 SF N 105 58.9 46.1 0.995 58.6 46.4 6.8 Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 126 61.7 64.3 0.989 61.0 65.0 8.0 Johnny Bench 1970 CIN N 148 87.1 60.9 1.004 87.5 60.5 6.7 Willie Stargell 1971 PIT N 125 59.0 66.0 1.021 60.2 64.8 8.3 Billy Williams 1972 CHI N 122 56.4 65.6 1.109 62.5 59.5 7.7 Willie Stargell 1973 PIT N 119 57.2 61.8 0.966 55.2 63.8 7.7 Johnny Bench 1974 CIN N 129 84.7 44.3 0.980 83.0 46.0 5.5 Willie Stargell 1975 PIT N 90 49.3 40.7 0.991 48.9 41.1 5.0 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 111 64.3 46.7 1.031 66.3 44.7 5.6 George Foster 1977 CIN N 149 93.1 55.9 1.021 95.0 54.0 6.1 Dave Parker 1978 PIT N 117 62.2 54.8 1.058 65.9 51.1 6.4 Dave Winfield 1979 SD N 118 66.8 51.2 0.938 62.6 55.4 6.5 Mike Schmidt 1980 PHI N 121 68.6 52.4 1.069 73.4 47.6 5.9 Mike Schmidt 1981 PHI N 91 47.8 43.2 1.076 51.4 39.6 5.1 Jack Clark 1982 SF N 103 70.6 32.4 0.976 68.9 34.1 4.2 Dale Murphy 1983 ATL N 121 69.1 51.9 1.069 73.9 47.1 5.7 Gary Carter 1984 MON N 106 72.6 33.4 0.947 68.7 37.3 4.6 Dave Parker 1985 CIN N 125 80.5 44.5 1.049 84.4 40.6 5.0 Mike Schmidt 1986 PHI N 119 68.2 50.8 1.050 71.6 47.4 5.7 Andre Dawson 1987 CHI N 137 81.4 55.6 1.041 84.7 52.3 5.8 D. Strawberry 1988 NY N 101 61.2 39.8 0.940 57.5 43.5 5.6 Kevin Mitchell 1989 SF N 125 66.9 58.1 0.972 65.0 60.0 7.6 Barry Bonds 1990 PIT N 114 64.8 49.2 0.970 62.9 51.1 6.0 Will Clark 1991 SF N 116 63.0 53.0 0.956 60.2 55.8 6.8 Darren Daulton 1992 PHI N 109 58.7 50.3 1.000 58.7 50.3 6.5 Barry Bonds 1993 SF N 123 61.5 61.5 0.963 59.2 63.8 7.1 Jeff Bagwell 1994 HOU N 116 61.5 54.5 0.948 58.3 57.7 6.2 Barry Bonds 1995 SF N 104 59.7 44.3 0.980 58.6 45.4 4.9 Barry Bonds 1996 SF N 129 66.5 62.5 0.964 64.2 64.8 6.9 Mike Piazza 1997 LA N 124 69.0 55.0 0.924 63.8 60.2 6.5 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 147 65.6 81.4 0.990 64.9 82.1 8.9 Mark McGwire 1999 STL N 147 68.7 78.3 0.985 67.7 79.3 7.9 Sammy Sosa 2000 CHI N 138 88.1 49.9 0.974 85.7 52.3 5.2 Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 137 52.3 84.7 0.926 48.4 88.6 9.4 Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 110 44.4 65.6 0.970 43.1 66.9 7.5 Jim Thome 2003 PHI N 131 78.8 52.2 0.932 73.4 57.6 6.2 Barry Bonds 2004 SF N 101 41.7 59.3 1.036 43.2 57.8 6.2
And finally, the league trailers:
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW Ken Hamlin 1960 KC A 24 50.0 -26.0 1.007 50.3 -26.3 -3.0 Nellie Fox 1961 CHI A 51 76.2 -25.2 0.994 75.8 -24.8 -2.7 Luis Aparicio 1962 CHI A 40 66.8 -26.8 0.970 64.8 -24.8 -2.8 Nellie Fox 1963 CHI A 42 66.9 -24.9 0.980 65.5 -23.5 -2.9 John Kennedy 1964 WAS A 35 52.7 -17.7 1.024 53.9 -18.9 -2.3 Rich Rollins 1965 MIN A 32 48.6 -16.6 1.028 49.9 -17.9 -2.3 Zoilo Versalles 1966 MIN A 36 53.5 -17.5 1.074 57.4 -21.4 -2.8 Jose Tartabull 1967 BOS A 10 25.3 -15.3 1.120 28.4 -18.4 -2.5 Mark Belanger 1968 BAL A 21 47.4 -26.4 1.003 47.5 -26.5 -3.9 Larry Brown 1969 CLE A 24 45.4 -21.4 1.009 45.8 -21.8 -2.7 Ed Brinkman 1970 WAS A 40 64.0 -24.0 0.961 61.5 -21.5 -2.6 Ed Brinkman 1971 DET A 37 57.0 -20.0 1.034 59.0 -22.0 -2.8 Doug Griffin 1972 BOS A 35 50.2 -15.2 1.077 54.1 -19.1 -2.7 Mark Belanger 1973 BAL A 27 54.3 -27.3 1.003 54.4 -27.4 -3.2 Dave Chalk 1974 CAL A 31 55.6 -24.6 0.945 52.5 -21.5 -2.6 Jim Sundberg 1975 TEX A 36 54.5 -18.5 0.996 54.3 -18.3 -2.1 Bob Randall 1976 MIN A 34 55.8 -21.8 1.020 56.8 -22.8 -2.9 Rick Burleson 1977 BOS A 52 73.8 -21.8 1.137 84.0 -32.0 -3.5 Rick Burleson 1978 BOS A 49 68.0 -19.0 1.109 75.5 -26.5 -3.1 Alfredo Griffin 1979 TOR A 31 60.6 -29.6 1.024 62.1 -31.1 -3.3 Rick Burleson 1980 BOS A 51 73.5 -22.5 1.052 77.4 -26.4 -2.9 Alfredo Griffin 1981 TOR A 21 35.3 -14.3 1.076 38.0 -17.0 -2.1 Alfredo Griffin 1982 TOR A 48 68.5 -20.5 1.095 74.9 -26.9 -3.0 Glenn Hoffman 1983 BOS A 41 65.7 -24.7 1.064 69.9 -28.9 -3.2 Jackie Gutierrez 1984 BOS A 29 56.5 -27.5 1.071 60.6 -31.6 -3.5 Jack Perconte 1985 SEA A 23 51.9 -28.9 1.003 52.1 -29.1 -3.2 Spike Owen 1986 SEA-BOS 45 71.2 -26.2 1.019 72.5 -27.5 -3.0 Harold Reynolds 1987 SEA A 35 65.5 -30.5 1.052 68.9 -33.9 -3.4 Ozzie Guillen 1988 CHI A 39 62.0 -23.0 0.997 61.8 -22.8 -2.6 Felix Fermin 1989 CLE A 21 53.7 -32.7 1.019 54.7 -33.7 -3.9 Al Newman 1990 MIN A 30 51.0 -21.0 1.075 54.8 -24.8 -2.9 Manuel Lee 1991 TOR A 29 52.4 -23.4 1.046 54.8 -25.8 -2.9 Omar Vizquel 1992 SEA A 21 45.9 -24.9 1.007 46.2 -25.2 -2.9 Omar Vizquel 1993 SEA A 31 64.0 -33.0 1.008 64.6 -33.6 -3.5 Mark McLemore 1994 BAL A 29 52.7 -23.7 1.053 55.5 -26.5 -2.5 Otis Nixon 1995 TEX A 45 72.2 -27.2 1.037 74.8 -29.8 -2.9 Darryl Hamilton 1996 TEX A 51 78.7 -27.7 1.055 83.0 -32.0 -3.0 Gary Disarcina 1997 ANA A 47 79.9 -32.9 1.019 81.4 -34.4 -3.4 Joey Cora 1998 SEA-CLE 32 65.8 -33.8 1.053 69.2 -37.2 -3.7 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 35 72.9 -37.9 1.012 73.8 -38.8 -3.6 Rey Sanchez 2000 KC A 38 70.1 -32.1 1.048 73.4 -35.4 -3.3 David Eckstein 2001 ANA A 41 69.8 -28.8 1.027 71.7 -30.7 -3.1 Neifi Perez 2002 KC A 37 63.4 -26.4 1.132 71.8 -34.8 -3.6 Luis Rivas 2003 MIN A 43 67.3 -24.3 1.012 68.1 -25.1 -2.6 David Eckstein 2004 ANA A 35 72.7 -37.7 0.972 70.6 -35.6 -3.5
Name Year Team(s) RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW Julian Javier 1960 STL N 21 45.3 -24.3 1.093 49.5 -28.5 -3.3 Maury Wills 1961 LA N 31 57.1 -26.1 1.063 60.7 -29.7 -3.3 Julian Javier 1962 STL N 39 66.0 -27.0 1.105 72.9 -33.9 -3.7 Julian Javier 1963 STL N 46 66.3 -20.3 1.096 72.7 -26.7 -3.5 Curt Flood 1964 STL N 46 60.6 -14.6 1.105 67.0 -21.0 -2.6 Glenn Beckert 1965 CHI N 29 52.1 -23.1 1.040 54.2 -25.2 -3.1 Sonny Jackson 1966 HOU N 25 57.8 -32.8 0.947 54.8 -29.8 -3.6 Tommy Helms 1967 CIN N 35 48.4 -13.4 1.125 54.4 -19.4 -2.5 Hal Lanier 1968 SF N 27 49.0 -22.0 1.000 49.0 -22.0 -3.2 Hal Lanier 1969 SF N 35 57.2 -22.2 1.000 57.2 -22.2 -2.7 Glenn Beckert 1970 CHI N 36 63.5 -27.5 1.129 71.7 -35.7 -3.9 Larry Bowa 1971 PHI N 25 53.3 -28.3 1.026 54.7 -29.7 -3.8 Marty Perez 1972 ATL N 28 50.5 -22.5 1.082 54.6 -26.6 -3.4 Larry Bowa 1973 PHI N 23 49.4 -26.4 1.044 51.5 -28.5 -3.4 Larry Bowa 1974 PHI N 36 65.8 -29.8 1.050 69.1 -33.1 -4.0 Tim Foli 1975 MON N 29 54.5 -25.5 1.068 58.2 -29.2 -3.5 Frank Taveras 1976 PIT N 24 45.0 -21.0 1.011 45.4 -21.4 -2.7 Larry Bowa 1977 PHI N 41 71.0 -30.0 1.039 73.8 -32.8 -3.7 Ivan DeJesus 1978 CHI N 35 61.5 -26.5 1.128 69.4 -34.4 -4.3 Larry Bowa 1979 PHI N 31 59.0 -28.0 1.022 60.3 -29.3 -3.5 Omar Moreno 1980 PIT N 36 61.7 -25.7 1.032 63.6 -27.6 -3.4 Ivan DeJesus 1981 CHI N 13 27.3 -14.3 1.069 29.1 -16.1 -2.1 Ozzie Smith 1982 STL N 43 64.1 -21.1 1.017 65.2 -22.2 -2.7 Doug Flynn 1983 MON N 26 53.3 -27.3 0.992 52.9 -26.9 -3.3 Larry Bowa 1984 CHI N 17 34.3 -17.3 1.094 37.5 -20.5 -2.5 Rafael Santana 1985 NY N 29 56.5 -27.5 0.979 55.3 -26.3 -3.2 Vince Coleman 1986 STL N 29 56.1 -27.1 0.994 55.8 -26.8 -3.2 Vince Coleman 1987 STL N 43 65.6 -22.6 1.011 66.4 -23.4 -2.6 Willie McGee 1988 STL N 50 67.5 -17.5 1.010 68.1 -18.1 -2.3 Vince Coleman 1989 STL N 28 50.6 -22.6 1.026 52.0 -24.0 -3.0 Billy Hatcher 1990 CIN N 25 45.3 -20.3 1.041 47.2 -22.2 -2.6 Brett Butler 1991 LA N 38 54.7 -16.7 0.989 54.1 -16.1 -1.9 Mark Lemke 1992 ATL N 26 43.0 -17.0 1.043 44.9 -18.9 -2.4 Otis Nixon 1993 ATL N 24 50.0 -26.0 1.001 50.0 -26.0 -2.9 Walt Weiss 1994 COL N 32 48.7 -16.7 1.186 57.7 -25.7 -2.8 Walt Weiss 1995 COL N 25 48.5 -23.5 1.333 64.7 -39.7 -4.3 Walt Weiss 1996 COL N 48 66.2 -18.2 1.289 85.4 -37.4 -4.0 Kirt Manwaring 1997 COL N 27 41.0 -14.0 1.233 50.6 -23.6 -2.6 Neifi Perez 1998 COL N 59 79.6 -20.6 1.250 99.5 -40.5 -4.4 Neifi Perez 1999 COL N 70 80.1 -10.1 1.293 103.5 -33.5 -3.4 Neifi Perez 2000 COL N 71 90.6 -19.6 1.291 117.0 -46.0 -4.6 Juan Pierre 2001 COL N 55 70.0 -15.0 1.226 85.8 -30.8 -3.3 Juan Pierre 2002 COL N 35 56.2 -21.2 1.184 66.5 -31.5 -3.5 Jose Hernandez 2003 3 Teams 57 77.0 -20.0 1.070 82.4 -25.4 -2.8 Ryan Freel 2004 CIN N 28 59.4 -31.4 0.953 56.6 -28.6 -3.1
The career leaders in RBI Production Wins:
Name RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW Barry Bonds 1843 1053.0 790.0 .974 1025.8 817.2 90.4 Hank Aaron 1594 937.0 657.0 1.012 948.1 645.9 79.5 Willie Stargell 1492 902.6 589.4 1.002 904.4 587.6 72.6 Willie McCovey 1518 952.7 565.3 .993 946.4 571.6 70.8 Mark McGwire 1414 809.4 604.6 .966 782.2 631.8 66.5 Reggie Jackson 1702 1189.5 512.5 .966 1149.1 552.9 65.7 Harmon Killebrew 1448 891.7 556.3 1.038 925.8 522.2 64.4 Mike Schmidt 1595 1029.2 565.8 1.036 1065.8 529.2 64.1 Frank Robinson 1444 950.7 493.3 1.000 951.2 492.8 60.3 Eddie Murray 1917 1459.6 457.4 .978 1427.1 489.9 55.5 Willie Mays 1194 744.0 450.0 .994 739.3 454.7 55.2 Sammy Sosa 1530 1037.6 492.4 1.003 1040.6 489.4 52.1 Billy Williams 1465 986.4 478.6 1.065 1050.4 414.6 51.7 Dick Allen 1119 708.3 410.7 1.008 713.7 405.3 51.7 Jeff Bagwell 1510 1045.3 464.7 .987 1032.2 477.8 51.6 Frank Howard 1111 724.6 386.4 .982 711.3 399.7 50.0 Dave Winfield 1833 1445.0 388.0 .969 1399.8 433.2 49.9 Boog Powell 1187 806.6 380.4 .987 795.8 391.2 49.5 Ken Griffey 1444 955.8 488.2 1.015 970.6 473.4 48.0 Frank Thomas 1439 972.3 466.7 .998 970.3 468.7 47.2
And the career trailers:
Name RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW Larry Bowa 525 843.5 -318.5 1.040 877.3 -352.3 -42.8 Don Kessinger 527 717.7 -190.7 1.075 771.7 -244.7 -29.9 Omar Vizquel 715 986.5 -271.5 1.012 998.6 -283.6 -29.2 Alfredo Griffin 527 779.2 -252.2 1.005 783.4 -256.4 -28.7 Mark Belanger 390 631.1 -241.1 .973 614.3 -224.3 -27.5 Ozzie Smith 793 1029.0 -236.0 .986 1014.4 -221.4 -27.0 Otis Nixon 318 544.0 -226.0 1.019 554.4 -236.4 -24.8 Brett Butler 578 804.8 -226.8 .987 794.2 -216.2 -24.8 Walt Weiss 386 567.2 -181.2 1.083 614.4 -228.4 -24.7 Maury Wills 437 654.9 -217.9 .968 633.8 -196.8 -23.9 Willie Wilson 585 799.3 -214.3 1.001 800.2 -215.2 -23.6 Neifi Perez 400 516.1 -116.1 1.205 621.6 -221.6 -23.1 Ozzie Guillen 619 841.9 -222.9 .990 833.8 -214.8 -22.4 Rey Sanchez 387 592.8 -205.8 1.012 600.0 -213.0 -21.9 Bud Harrelson 267 450.8 -183.8 .985 443.9 -176.9 -21.6 Tim Foli 501 660.9 -159.9 1.028 679.7 -178.7 -21.5 Mark McLemore 615 823.5 -208.5 1.009 831.3 -216.3 -21.4 Luis Aparicio 603 766.0 -163.0 1.015 777.3 -174.3 -21.3 Ed Brinkman 461 617.6 -156.6 1.009 623.4 -162.4 -20.3 Bert Campaneris 646 835.2 -189.2 .971 810.8 -164.8 -20.0
When I wrote an earlier version of this article years ago (and a link to it is here) I did an extra adjustment for the position played by the hitter, but I'm not going to do that this time around. In addition to raising or lower each player's expected RBI based upon the position he played, I also considered and rejected doing a similar adjustment based upon his slot in the batting order. Despite my decision not to do these adjustment, I thought it might be interesting to display the cumulative RBI production numbers both by batting order and defensive position. First, by batting order:
-------------- Batting Order Position --------------
Year LG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1960 NL -86 -41 184 185 77 15 -65 -38 -232
1961 NL -164 -80 145 219 138 81 -42 -80 -218
1962 NL -140 -121 197 249 164 52 13 -98 -315
1963 NL -83 -7 177 178 122 55 -58 -101 -282
1964 NL -76 -64 162 285 158 -4 -47 -97 -317
1965 NL -50 -5 193 186 104 23 -77 -98 -276
1966 NL -81 -94 184 210 146 17 21 -77 -326
1967 NL -78 -45 200 242 81 47 -44 -120 -283
1968 NL -41 -75 177 223 72 47 -27 -149 -226
1969 NL -43 -43 244 333 143 12 -78 -194 -375
1970 NL -71 -179 309 375 131 64 -81 -161 -388
1971 NL -130 -79 266 349 68 32 -36 -166 -303
1972 NL -96 -17 179 299 145 30 -75 -117 -348
1973 NL -26 -91 184 294 110 90 -46 -189 -326
1974 NL -79 -162 246 252 167 52 -46 -109 -320
1975 NL -47 -102 133 292 189 80 -86 -155 -306
1976 NL -69 -96 204 187 151 58 -22 -88 -326
1977 NL -136 -140 233 274 230 85 -72 -132 -342
1978 NL -84 -151 209 315 166 17 -16 -154 -303
1979 NL -64 -122 196 356 121 47 -33 -119 -380
1980 NL -120 -139 169 286 173 81 -54 -102 -294
1981 NL -61 -46 154 203 78 -10 -65 -74 -178
1982 NL -119 -71 141 289 182 77 -36 -132 -332
1983 NL -72 -51 180 217 174 27 2 -148 -329
1984 NL -101 4 164 242 157 16 1 -165 -318
1985 NL -71 -60 163 253 146 63 -3 -148 -343
1986 NL -100 -47 146 236 123 37 30 -101 -325
1987 NL -87 -11 185 302 134 101 -43 -210 -372
1988 NL 13 -48 202 203 127 5 -25 -133 -345
1989 NL -70 -18 176 315 63 16 -22 -116 -345
1990 NL -75 11 157 284 186 2 -52 -147 -366
1991 NL -101 -16 190 273 230 -9 -71 -148 -350
1992 NL -67 -50 216 250 138 9 -36 -157 -303
1993 NL -169 -77 154 295 227 175 -48 -105 -451
1994 NL -136 -60 229 287 116 40 -62 -77 -337
1995 NL -142 -117 286 309 170 45 -29 -155 -367
1996 NL -182 -65 402 388 166 75 -115 -186 -484
1997 NL -149 -82 356 257 177 114 -36 -156 -481
1998 NL -161 -87 320 407 295 64 -111 -179 -548
1999 NL -215 -85 436 457 237 74 -114 -197 -594
2000 NL -284 -91 444 436 259 116 -113 -187 -580
2001 NL -215 -122 581 431 161 66 -75 -229 -597
2002 NL -167 -87 412 382 128 49 -104 -123 -490
2003 NL -217 -39 376 431 159 55 -24 -168 -574
2004 NL -140 -95 317 347 281 70 -48 -147 -585
-------------- Batting Order Position --------------
Year LG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1960 AL -47 -25 140 192 27 73 -44 -101 -214
1961 AL -137 -93 199 301 128 58 -45 -93 -318
1962 AL -75 -8 169 247 78 1 -13 -104 -295
1963 AL -82 -84 121 128 128 128 -27 -46 -266
1964 AL -81 -69 115 250 125 41 -60 -54 -267
1965 AL -68 -110 198 185 142 37 -61 -60 -263
1966 AL -63 -23 176 175 102 -8 -42 -39 -279
1967 AL -107 -35 161 182 79 60 -25 -75 -240
1968 AL -59 -51 156 185 96 11 -27 -87 -223
1969 AL -71 -47 248 315 136 -27 -87 -117 -351
1970 AL -24 -28 232 219 131 14 -31 -167 -347
1971 AL -26 -80 242 198 99 63 -12 -157 -326
1972 AL -131 -18 200 193 78 71 -2 -135 -255
1973 AL -86 -104 129 200 147 4 -40 -91 -158
1974 AL -128 -66 128 187 112 78 -62 -75 -174
1975 AL -57 -60 95 181 42 104 -32 -133 -141
1976 AL -98 -54 144 169 98 -21 -56 -16 -165
1977 AL -177 -142 128 187 179 111 -36 -74 -177
1978 AL -211 -61 183 263 135 25 -20 -140 -173
1979 AL -141 -89 234 228 176 49 -27 -191 -239
1980 AL -192 -66 236 271 106 78 -66 -163 -204
1981 AL -91 -51 109 146 15 24 -13 -50 -89
1982 AL -166 -6 184 284 81 10 -15 -146 -227
1983 AL -164 -14 243 229 150 24 -58 -186 -224
1984 AL -204 14 247 202 83 116 -41 -146 -272
1985 AL -151 -52 221 246 79 64 21 -148 -280
1986 AL -79 -67 238 117 146 86 -27 -139 -274
1987 AL -135 -68 190 209 112 93 -18 -139 -245
1988 AL -114 -108 230 197 146 33 -33 -140 -211
1989 AL -166 -161 279 224 85 87 -39 -107 -204
1990 AL -100 -29 147 250 50 -2 0 -123 -193
1991 AL -111 7 215 254 104 50 -52 -228 -238
1992 AL -111 35 191 250 78 -29 -55 -135 -225
1993 AL -162 -112 260 320 131 50 -126 -137 -224
1994 AL -137 -91 240 191 152 -3 -48 -146 -158
1995 AL -138 -64 231 251 74 47 -44 -128 -229
1996 AL -152 -113 232 328 130 92 -71 -144 -303
1997 AL -192 -99 281 222 215 71 -84 -166 -248
1998 AL -175 -54 232 364 116 -45 -87 -111 -241
1999 AL -191 -91 218 308 172 12 -6 -165 -257
2000 AL -146 -138 241 327 39 69 5 -127 -270
2001 AL -190 -114 289 272 170 -28 -24 -126 -250
2002 AL -149 -87 277 325 99 36 -88 -190 -222
2003 AL -102 -24 268 198 54 33 -77 -161 -188
2004 AL -135 -36 197 248 32 25 -65 -50 -214
Nothing too earth-shaking here. The middle of the order features the hitters with the power necessary to drive in more than their expected number of RBIs. I did expect to see the ninth slot in the American League improve more than it did in 1973, when it stopped being filled with pitchers. On the other hand, the ninth in the NL has gotten much worse over the last ten years and AL hasn't.
RBI Production by position:
Year LG P C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF PH 1960 NL -230 4 108 -100 75 -35 83 29 85 -18 1961 NL -192 -46 142 -120 61 -93 89 50 160 -49 1962 NL -284 38 160 -168 0 -161 162 109 195 -52 1963 NL -269 66 125 -107 8 -144 144 100 114 -35 1964 NL -297 -1 180 -102 98 -108 146 12 129 -57 1965 NL -252 19 126 -79 102 -149 32 111 132 -42 1966 NL -269 52 184 -76 47 -130 54 87 126 -75 1967 NL -243 -42 116 -83 119 -125 126 65 123 -59 1968 NL -203 27 146 -71 41 -141 111 24 90 -25 1969 NL -342 -58 300 -146 69 -166 155 25 213 -51 1970 NL -341 14 312 -208 108 -203 150 66 157 -55 1971 NL -278 8 264 -69 94 -256 115 20 166 -63 1972 NL -302 -1 243 -105 86 -165 140 83 81 -60 1973 NL -315 -32 152 -87 129 -193 187 56 119 -15 1974 NL -288 -4 233 -119 63 -164 118 92 118 -47 1975 NL -292 -6 268 -75 55 -194 59 33 176 -26 1976 NL -295 -27 205 -76 105 -127 159 -3 117 -57 1977 NL -304 82 273 -133 59 -262 150 29 147 -43 1978 NL -285 7 225 -93 32 -194 81 5 195 27 1979 NL -330 31 198 -114 116 -148 138 1 169 -60 1980 NL -271 88 145 -136 89 -173 113 1 202 -58 1981 NL -182 5 129 -87 71 -94 82 19 62 -4 1982 NL -297 43 208 -88 58 -131 49 29 162 -33 1983 NL -330 44 143 -101 130 -141 92 91 76 -3 1984 NL -308 84 146 -111 80 -134 46 40 200 -44 1985 NL -312 68 143 -21 31 -128 83 17 172 -53 1986 NL -305 17 179 -85 144 -106 56 20 127 -46 1987 NL -344 8 228 -54 140 -188 37 57 182 -67 1988 NL -295 -1 174 -31 75 -87 67 2 180 -82 1989 NL -303 -36 228 -53 75 -64 128 -55 148 -68 1990 NL -327 -34 185 -28 58 -127 118 13 202 -60 1991 NL -291 -22 152 -28 109 -90 127 -55 158 -61 1992 NL -276 -16 173 -61 124 -130 92 5 123 -34 1993 NL -391 62 198 -98 158 -161 193 -28 158 -92 1994 NL -335 21 206 -60 77 -85 111 -73 145 -9 1995 NL -346 15 207 -96 98 -141 181 -118 232 -32 1996 NL -414 49 234 -180 152 -182 250 -4 156 -59 1997 NL -428 82 273 -93 140 -158 96 -14 189 -87 1998 NL -492 8 398 -126 137 -221 150 0 241 -95 1999 NL -507 -55 312 -104 191 -218 241 1 251 -111 2000 NL -531 -12 369 -152 98 -210 223 16 271 -71 2001 NL -526 -90 295 -103 111 -197 258 20 335 -102 2002 NL -459 -33 243 -129 61 -151 329 -7 247 -103 2003 NL -496 -6 337 -75 73 -200 246 22 178 -79 2004 NL -511 -100 287 -36 169 -161 237 53 137 -73
Year LG P C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF DH PH 1960 AL -204 -41 185 -92 29 -53 171 -6 48 x -37 1961 AL -280 31 242 -147 -44 -122 90 80 177 x -27 1962 AL -276 -34 139 -96 14 -68 185 19 157 x -40 1963 AL -236 62 130 -108 -8 -75 69 44 177 x -53 1964 AL -247 -4 143 -123 21 -44 152 21 131 x -50 1965 AL -233 -57 175 -63 -13 -59 181 8 113 x -51 1966 AL -250 -26 162 -120 53 -81 116 35 136 x -25 1967 AL -216 -47 177 -82 2 -80 173 -23 109 x -12 1968 AL -196 20 159 -60 -10 -121 151 -1 95 x -38 1969 AL -313 -55 231 -71 88 -113 133 13 150 x -65 1970 AL -321 19 109 -119 82 -96 245 9 141 x -70 1971 AL -288 38 206 -75 79 -186 103 45 119 x -43 1972 AL -250 30 296 -106 7 -114 42 48 88 x -43 1973 AL -0 21 137 -110 10 -231 52 17 14 118 -26 1974 AL -1 -53 140 -87 -17 -151 43 -27 152 43 -41 1975 AL -1 7 115 -100 45 -154 24 -54 63 71 -16 1976 AL -0 -74 159 -110 -1 -157 49 -41 96 89 -9 1977 AL -1 -14 152 -218 65 -266 39 -2 154 99 -9 1978 AL -0 -29 124 -201 42 -191 131 11 36 123 -46 1979 AL 0 -48 114 -131 2 -269 77 38 129 143 -55 1980 AL -0 -63 201 -204 65 -227 114 -75 67 122 2 1981 AL x -40 15 -78 23 -97 34 -1 114 57 -27 1982 AL x -69 64 -214 21 -150 146 19 56 162 -35 1983 AL -0 -69 118 -160 -36 -139 134 -44 66 160 -28 1984 AL -1 -63 203 -197 -6 -232 65 -7 143 147 -53 1985 AL -0 -54 224 -194 45 -212 54 -47 76 180 -73 1986 AL -0 -78 124 -167 81 -211 27 -62 169 134 -15 1987 AL -1 -104 279 -234 25 -163 88 -35 96 84 -34 1988 AL -0 -15 188 -215 -36 -161 28 -28 171 115 -47 1989 AL -0 -19 209 -81 -93 -201 71 -30 104 81 -40 1990 AL -0 -23 172 -137 -32 -156 15 21 102 86 -46 1991 AL 0 -45 135 -166 -32 -154 55 -52 171 137 -49 1992 AL x -66 170 -105 23 -214 39 21 28 137 -33 1993 AL -1 2 241 -147 -44 -178 63 -77 42 131 -31 1994 AL 1 -35 182 -146 21 -164 40 -112 109 133 -27 1995 AL -0 -43 297 -188 6 -163 -36 -124 119 157 -24 1996 AL -1 -90 247 -254 12 -135 74 -117 189 127 -54 1997 AL 2 -88 345 -202 -34 -213 51 -76 176 86 -47 1998 AL x -118 251 -171 -44 -159 9 -53 188 131 -34 1999 AL -0 -105 178 -174 -49 -122 13 -68 183 197 -52 2000 AL -0 -68 246 -233 -25 -140 23 41 106 104 -56 2001 AL -0 -111 233 -138 26 -93 -34 -13 17 128 -16 2002 AL x -176 229 -177 17 -28 36 -26 104 62 -41 2003 AL x -65 89 -163 21 -75 65 -57 73 129 -20 2004 AL x -34 154 -187 64 -103 63 -77 7 113 -1
Note: the league of a game is determined by the league of the home team for the purposes of these charts. This is only a problem when dealing with the dreaded inter-league play.
Again, nothing shocking in these charts. I found it mildly interesting looking at the change in some of the positions through the years, most notably center-field and left-field.
So where does all this leave Joe Carter? Well, for all his 100 RBI seasons, he's wasn't among the career leaders in RBI Production. Since 1960, Carter was the 85th best hitter in this category. The hitters surrounding him on the list:
Name RBI ERBI RPRO ParkF ER/P RP/P RPRW George Hendrick 1111 895.2 215.8 .999 894.4 216.6 26.1 Joe Carter 1445 1190.5 254.5 1.012 1204.3 240.7 26.0 Tony Oliva 947 715.7 231.3 1.042 745.5 201.5 25.6
Which probably isn't bad company to be in.
All in all, I'm still not a fan of the RBI, even in this form. If we are going to go to all the trouble of looking at the context of a player's performance, it probably makes more sense to use something like the Value Added approach, since RBI Production focuses on one part of the offensive equation while ignoring others, like how all those RBI opportunities got on base to begin with. Still, even if the argument for this new statistic might have been less than compelling, I hope that at least some of the material presented was interesting.
Seasonal and career RBI Production data for all players from 1960 to 2004 is here.
It should be noted that we don't not have complete play-by-play coverage for all these years. See the article on the Value Added method for a discussion of the missing games. In this article, we are going to ignore missing games since we have no way of knowing the situations each batter appeared in. In our charts, then, if a player is credited with fewer RBIs than he actually had, it is because we are missing some of his games.
The number of runs per 9 innings in each league from 1960 to 2004:
NL xxx0 xxx1 xxx2 xxx3 xxx4 xxx5 xxx6 xxx7 xxx8 xxx9 196x 8.50 9.14 9.04 7.64 8.08 8.06 8.19 7.68 6.84 8.17 197x 9.07 7.83 7.75 8.30 8.30 8.27 7.98 8.79 8.04 8.46 198x 8.06 7.79 8.15 8.24 8.15 8.14 8.34 9.08 7.75 7.88 199x 8.46 8.24 7.75 9.04 9.31 9.30 9.42 9.24 9.21 9.99 200x 10.07 9.47 8.92 9.32 9.34 AL xxx0 xxx1 xxx2 xxx3 xxx4 xxx5 xxx6 xxx7 xxx8 xxx9 196x 8.79 9.16 8.91 8.16 8.14 7.91 7.79 7.39 6.84 8.19 197x 8.37 7.78 6.96 8.60 8.23 8.63 7.99 9.12 8.49 9.45 198x 9.03 8.17 9.00 9.03 8.90 9.20 9.31 9.90 8.79 8.68 199x 8.69 8.98 8.68 9.50 10.54 10.24 10.84 9.98 10.17 10.63 200x 10.77 9.85 9.79 9.80 10.11