By Tom Ruane
A while back, I started collecting my Retrosheet posts in a place on the web-site. This series eventually grew to encompass several articles. Here are the others:
Fun With Retrosheet Data Fun With Retrosheet Data, the Sequel Fun With Retrosheet Data, Episode 3 Fun With Retrosheet Data, Episode 4 Fun With Retrosheet Data, Episode 6 Fun With Retrosheet Data, Episode 7
I hope at least some of this is of general interest and, as always:
Thanks for your patience.
A note on the scope of the data presented in these articles:
As of this writing, the data used in these articles does not include any of the Negro Leagues that are now considered by MLB to be part of the "Major Leagues" as of December 2020. These leagues are the Negro National League from 1920 to 1931 and 1933 to 1948, the Eastern Colored League from 1923 to 1928, the 1929 American Negro League, the 1932 East-West League, the 1932 Negro Southern League, and the Negro American League from 1937 to 1948.
This omission is not in any way a reflection upon the major league status of those leagues (or for that matter any additional leagues that may come under the Major League umbrella in future years), only that I did not have access to data associated with these leagues while I was researching and writing these articles. In light of this, any data presented in this article, as well as my use of the term "major leagues," should be viewed in light of this omission.
List of Articles (starting with most recent)
Three-Out Innings with No Official At-Bats (April 16, 2023) ERA Qualifiers and the Number of Batter-Pitcher Matchups (November 7, 2021) Fun With Batting Orders (August 5, 2021) Most Consistent Pitchers (May 11, 2021) The Most Homogeneous Batting Orders (May 6, 2021) Most Consistent Hitters (April 25, 2021) Pitchers Doing Random Things In The Most Consecutive Games (February 2, 2021) Players Doing Random Things In The Most Consecutive Games (January 24, 2021) Extra-Inning Season and Career Batting Records (October 19, 2019) Extra-Inning Single Game Batting Records (September 29, 2019) Second (and third) Generation Major League Players (September 14, 2019) Perhaps the Most Improbable Comebacks From 1901 to 2018 (May 13, 2019) Runs Produced By The Most and Fewest Hits (September 12, 2018) Changes In Pitch Outcomes: 1988-2016 (July 2, 2017) Fun with a Team's OPS (June 20, 2016) A Look at Run Differentials (June 18, 2016) Starting Pitching Lines (May 24, 2015) The Greatest Incomplete Starts (May 20, 2015) Most Surprising Pitching Performances (July 5, 2014) Both Starting Pitchers Making MLB Exits (May 26, 2014) Both Starting Pitchers Making MLB Debuts (May 19, 2014) The Age of Starting Lineups (May 5, 2014) Hot Starts to Careers, the Pitching Edition (April 29, 2014) Hot Starts to Careers, the Batting Edition (April 28, 2014) Hard to Hit Pitchers (April 5, 2014) Unique Batting Lines (August 26, 2012) Come-From-Behind Wins and Losses (July 8, 2012) A Tour of Team Pitching Logs (July 7, 2012) A Tour of Team Batting Logs (July 5, 2012) Consecutive Winless Starts (June 23, 2012) Low-Hit Clusters (June 19, 2012) When Winning Streaks Collide (June 14, 2012) Defensive Juggling (May 8, 2012) Incomplete Games By Position (April 8, 2012) A Look at Triple-Crown Leaders (December 19, 2011) Do Only Slow Runners Ground into a Lot of DPs? (December 15, 2011) The Homering-est Teammates (and Multiple Debuts) (December 12, 2011) Multiple Hitting Streaks (November 29, 2011) The Most Exciting Games (October 28, 2011) League Leaders With the Fewest Games Played (October 14, 2011) Nelson Cruz Made Me Do It (October 15, 2011) Players With The Highest Percentage of Post-Season Homers (October 7, 2011) Doubling Their Home Runs (September 27, 2011) Top Hitting Streaks By Batting Order and Defensive Position (September 27, 2011) Come-From-Behind Batting Champions, An Update (September 26, 2011) Best Career Marks By Park (September 24, 2011) Come-From-Behind Batting Champions (September 23, 2011) Best Career Hitters By Lineup Position (September 18, 2011) Best Hitters By Lineup Position (September 16, 2011) More Than You Ever Wanted to Know About 1-0 Games (September 15, 2011) Best/Worst Month for a Team's Pitchers (September 14, 2011) Batters Supporting Starting Pitchers (September 10, 2011) Most Strikeouts Between Hits Allowed... And Then Some (September 5, 2011) Double-Digits In Strikeouts and Hits Allowed (September 3, 2011) Bases-Loaded Plate Appearances (August 31, 2011) Palindromic At-Bat Line (August 27, 2011) Most At-Bats With the Bases Loaded (August 25, 2011) Starting Infields, Then And Now (August 24, 2011) Easy schedule runs (July 15, 2011) Parity Comes to MLB (May 29, 2011) Two .400 Hitters on a Team (May 3, 2011) Pitcher versus Team (July 22, 2010) Expected Pitcher Match-Ups (July 21, 2010) Consecutive Starts With IPs greater than or equal to Hits (July 19, 2010) Consecutive Starts With Ks greater than or equal to IPs (July 17,2010) Pitcher Match-Ups (July 16, 2010) Most Blown Saves Combo (June 3, 2009)
A while back I wrote an article about batting lines. And not the new-age ones containing things like walks, strikeouts, pitches seen and left-on-base. I was talking old school:1
Mantle cf 4 1 2 4
Sure, the box score had a header line identifying what each column meant, but if you didn't know that the numbers represented at-bats, runs, hits and RBIs, why were you even looking at a box score in the first place?
This time around, I'd like to look at pitching lines. In particular, those of starting pitchers. And I would like to use the classic version from the same era as the batting lines above. Ones like:
Gibson 9 3 1 1 1 12
I probably don't have to tell you, but this includes innings pitched, hits, run and earned runs allowed, walks and strikeouts.
So what is most common pitching line? First, I should probably describe the scope of the study. I will be looking at starting pitchers of every game played from 1914 to 2014, a total of 171,891 games or 343,782 lines.
Before I get to the most popular line, think of the total number we're dealing with (343,782) and try to come up with a guess of how often the most common line occurred. Do you have a number in your mind?
Was it 132?
It turns out that there are no common pitching lines. The most frequent one appears on average once every 2,604 times (or a little more than once a season). Here are the top ten:
1914-2014 (343,782 total) Cnt IP H R ER BB SO First Last Frequency 132 9 4 0 0 1 4 1915 2011 1 in 2604 127 9 6 1 1 1 3 1914 2012 126 9 5 0 0 1 4 1914 2010 120 9 5 1 1 1 4 1914 2009 116 9 5 1 1 1 3 1914 2009 116 9 5 1 1 2 3 1914 2012 114 9 6 1 1 2 4 1914 2004 114 9 4 0 0 1 5 1914 2014 114 9 6 1 1 1 4 1914 2011 112 9 4 0 0 2 5 1914 2011
Well, the first thing that jumps out at me is that while these might have been common in the olden days of baseball, they are not likely to occur during the days of pitch counts and lots of strikeouts. As a matter of fact, while they occurred 25 times in 1914, only one of these showed up in 2014 (thanks to James Shields). And despite there being three major leagues in 1914 instead of the two we have today, there were nearly 30% more opportunities last year.
So next I looked at them by eras. I decided to break the games into three relatively equal chunks, giving me these groupings: 1914 to 1959, 1960 to 1989, and 1990 to 2014.
Here are the five most popular pitching lines for each of those periods along with their ranking in the other eras:
1914-1959 (115,506 total)
--- Rank --
Cnt IP H R ER BB SO 60-89 90-14 Frequency
77 9 6 1 1 1 3 26 1504 1 in 1500
71 9 4 0 0 1 2 249 5247
67 9 5 1 1 2 3 17 3164
66 9 7 1 1 2 3 56 5247
66 9 7 2 2 2 2 707 18608
Note: rare lines are often tied with hundreds or thousands of others. For example, the two lines ranked as the 5247th most common from 1990 to 2014 both occurred four times, as did 2003 others. And the last line above happened only once in the most recent period, by Kent Bottenfield in 1993.
1960-1989 (112,206 total)
--- Rank --
Cnt IP H R ER BB SO 14-59 90-14 Frequency
55 9 4 0 0 2 5 65 1137 1 in 2040
55 9 5 0 0 1 4 25 666
52 9 6 1 1 1 5 121 764
50 9 5 1 1 1 4 30 587
49 9 5 0 0 2 5 207 1759
49 9 6 0 0 1 5 193 764
1990-2014 (116,070 total)
--- Rank --
Cnt IP H R ER BB SO 14-59 60-89 Frequency
61 7 6 2 2 1 4 1245 113 1 in 1903
58 7 6 1 1 1 5 4368 327
57 7 5 2 2 1 5 2133 609
57 7 5 1 1 1 4 2133 113
55 7 5 1 1 1 3 2622 609
All of which is a rather roundabout way of demonstrating something we already knew: pitching lines look very different today than they used to. But when was the tipping point, the few years when a good outing went from being nine to seven innings? Well, to answer this, I created a breakdown of how many innings starting pitchers went each year from 1914 to 2014. The first few lines of the chart looks like this:
Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 1914 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.5 2.2 0.7 0.5 3.5 0.6 0.3 3.0 0.8 0.5 4.0 1.0 0.4 5.8 1.0 0.5 9.8 0.9 0.5 13.3 1.3 0.7 38.8 5.8 9 1915 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 2.6 1.0 0.9 3.0 1.1 0.5 3.6 1.2 0.5 4.4 0.8 0.5 8.2 1.3 0.5 14.0 1.3 1.0 40.6 5.0 9 1916 0.4 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.5 2.5 1.2 0.3 2.6 1.0 0.6 4.6 1.0 0.5 5.2 1.4 0.7 9.0 1.3 0.7 13.0 1.4 0.8 37.4 6.3 9 1917 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 2.5 0.7 0.4 2.6 1.0 0.6 3.4 1.2 0.6 4.3 1.3 0.5 7.7 0.7 0.4 14.2 1.5 0.9 40.7 5.9 9 1918 0.5 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.7 0.5 0.6 2.3 1.0 0.4 3.1 0.8 0.4 3.9 0.6 0.3 7.2 0.8 0.7 16.5 1.3 1.3 42.1 7.8 9 1919 0.4 1.1 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 2.2 1.3 0.3 2.0 0.8 0.5 2.3 0.8 0.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 4.2 0.9 0.5 8.1 1.0 0.3 14.8 1.3 0.7 42.4 6.3 9
And the last few like this:
Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 2009 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 2.3 1.4 1.7 3.8 2.6 2.2 14.1 4.3 4.5 22.3 3.8 3.7 17.8 1.9 1.2 5.4 0.3 0.2 2.6 0.0 6 2010 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.1 1.1 3.8 2.2 2.1 11.6 4.4 4.4 22.0 4.5 4.2 19.5 2.0 1.7 7.3 0.3 0.1 2.6 0.0 6 2011 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 3.4 2.0 2.3 11.4 4.4 4.2 22.7 4.7 4.5 19.2 1.9 2.4 6.8 0.2 0.4 2.9 0.0 6 2012 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.8 1.3 1.6 4.1 2.6 2.4 12.6 4.4 4.5 21.4 4.5 4.9 18.0 2.3 1.6 5.7 0.3 0.2 2.3 0.0 6 2013 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 3.7 2.6 2.4 13.0 4.4 4.8 21.8 4.3 4.6 19.4 2.2 1.4 5.4 0.5 0.2 2.0 0.0 6 2014 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.0 1.2 3.6 2.6 2.1 12.4 4.5 5.0 22.2 5.0 4.9 19.6 1.9 1.6 5.6 0.4 0.3 2.0 0.0 6
Hopefully the contents of these charts are easy to understand. For each third of an inning from zero to nine, I have the percentage of starts of that length during the year. The "9+" column has the percentage of starts greater than nine innings while the "TOP" column is just what you'd expect: the inning length with the highest percentage.
The complete chart is in the notes.2
As expected, the nine-inning column dominates most of the century, reaching its high-water mark with the 42.4% in 1919. From there, the percentage steadily declines, dropping below a third for the first time in 1943, and staying below that level for good four years after that. 1978 was the last year that a fifth of all starts went the regulation distance and by 1984, they had dropped out of the top spot for good.
What might be somewhat surprising is that it was replaced at the top by the seven rather than the eight-inning start, the latter having peaked as early as 1918, never exceeding the 16.5% it hit that year. The trend toward shorter stints has continued, and since 2001 the order has been six, seven and then five inning starts. Absent a change in the scoring rule requiring a starter to finish the fifth, or an increase in the roster size permitting a team to carry fifteen or more pitchers, it's hard to imagine this trend continuing much further, and in fact things seem to have stabilized this century.
Here are the most popular lines over that period:
2001-2014 (68,024 total) Cnt IP H R ER BB SO 42 6 5 2 2 2 5 41 7 5 1 1 2 5 40 6 5 2 2 2 6 39 7 5 1 1 1 4 38 7 4 1 1 1 6
One thing you've probably noticed is that the most common pitching lines tend to be good ones. All of the ones we shown so far would be considered quality starts today. And that makes sense: the more hits, runs and walks a pitcher allows, the harder it is to match another one exactly. But there have been some truly awful outings that have been duplicated. Here are the non-unique pitching lines with the lowest game scores over the last 101 years:
Cnt IP H R ER BB SO GS Player Date Player Date 2 2.2 9 11 11 2 1 -5 Doug Bird 5-24-1983 Jose Lima 8-24-2002 2 3.1 11 10 10 3 1 -4 Mark Mulder 8-10-2000 Kevin Tapani 4-24-2001 2 2.1 11 9 9 2 1 -2 George Murray 9-12-1926 Edinson Volquez 6- 7-2013 2 1.1 8 9 9 3 0 -1 Jason Jacome 4-15-1996 R.A. Dickey 6-13-2004 2 2.2 9 10 10 2 2 0 Andy Benes 4- 4-2001 Steve Sparks 5-22-2004 2 3 11 9 9 2 1 0 Cy Moore 8- 2-1933(2) David Williams 9-11-2006
How many pitching lines are unique?
Well, lots of them. I mentioned earlier that this study looked at 343,782 starting pitching performances. These generated 108,423 different lines. Of those 62,077 (57.3%) occurred only once. As a result, a fan attending a baseball game over the past century has had slightly worse than a one in three chance of witnessing something singular.3
But has this also changed from one era to the next? Now that pitchers are throwing fewer innings, is there a greater chance they will duplicate a previous performance? Here is the breakdown by the three time periods we used before:
Years Total Unique Pct 1914-1959 115506 25391 22.0 1960-1989 112206 18789 16.7 1990-2014 116070 17897 15.4 1914-2014 343782 62077 18.1
So there are fewer unique lines in the last few decades, but fans still have a pretty good chance of seeing something each day that has never happened before.
Are some pitchers more distinctive than others?
There are two ways I wanted to look at this one. The first: what percentage of a pitcher's starts were unique? And: what is the average number of times his pitching lines have occurred?
I looked at all pitchers with at least 200 starts between 1914 and 2014 and here were the pitchers with the highest percentage of unique pitching lines:
Tot %Uni Avg Player First Last 773 38.68 6.83 Nolan Ryan 1966 1993 346 34.97 8.24 Sam McDowell 1961 1975 221 34.84 10.13 J.R. Richard 1971 1980 268 32.84 12.18 Milt Gaston 1924 1934 603 32.67 7.57 Randy Johnson 1988 2009 294 31.29 13.30 Jimmy Ring 1917 1928 323 30.65 13.34 Wes Ferrell 1927 1941 263 30.04 10.42 Vern Kennedy 1934 1945 483 29.40 12.07 Bobo Newsom 1929 1953 484 29.34 13.31 Bob Feller 1936 1956 Where: Tot - total number of starts %Uni - percentage of those that were unique Avg - the average number of time a start of his was produced First/Last - the years of their first and last start.
And the ones with the lowest average occurrences:
Tot %Uni Avg Player First Last 773 38.68 6.83 Nolan Ryan 1966 1993 603 32.67 7.57 Randy Johnson 1988 2009 346 34.97 8.24 Sam McDowell 1961 1975 208 26.44 9.45 Joe Shaute 1922 1934 397 25.69 9.58 Bobby Witt 1986 2001 222 29.28 9.68 Sam Jones 1951 1964 221 34.84 10.13 J.R. Richard 1971 1980 203 24.14 10.29 Jason Bere 1993 2003 237 28.27 10.41 Bob Turley 1951 1963 263 30.04 10.42 Vern Kennedy 1934 1945
Both of these lists purport to show the most distinctive pitchers of the last 101 years and while there are a few surprises (Joe Shaute?), many of the names are ones you probably expected to see. Before doing the study, I was pretty confident that Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Sam McDowell and Bob Feller would be near the top.
Nolan Ryan's percentage of unique starts should probably be even higher. There are 27 instances since 1914 of a pitching line being produced by a pitcher twice and by no one else. Here are the first and last times this was done:
Player IP H R ER BB SO First Last Ray Caldwell 7 13 5 5 2 2 6- 4-1918 4-22-1921 Mat Latos 7 1 1 1 1 4 7-29-2009 6-30-2014
With one exception, no player has managed to do this more than once. You probably guessed who that exception is:
Player IP H R ER BB SO First Last
Nolan Ryan 9 5 2 2 6 13 8-17-1973 7-14-1978
9 3 2 2 3 12 4- 7-1975 5-30-1979
4.1 4 6 5 6 5 6- 2-1978 9-15-1983
9 5 2 1 2 13 7-27-1982 8-22-1989
On to the least distinctive pitchers. These lists are a little harder to predict. First, the lowest percentage of unique pitching lines:
Tot %Uni Avg Player First Last 290 7.24 19.99 Joe Horlen 1961 1972 217 7.83 15.32 Jeff Francis 2004 2014 265 7.92 18.68 Jered Weaver 2006 2014 224 8.48 16.77 Aaron Cook 2002 2012 200 8.50 20.01 John Buzhardt 1958 1968 300 9.00 15.89 Jarrod Washburn 1998 2009 250 9.20 17.47 Paul Maholm 2005 2014 203 9.36 15.57 Mark Redman 1999 2008 245 9.39 18.60 Rick Reed 1988 2003 263 9.51 17.57 Joel Pineiro 2000 2011
There is a huge difference between this list and the previous one. In any given start, Nolan Ryan was more than five times more likely to produce a unique line than Joe Horlen.
This list is dominated by modern pitchers with relatively low strike out rates. Well, with the exception of Jered Weaver, who once led the AL in strikeouts.
And the ones with the highest average of occurrence:
Tot %Uni Avg Player First Last 240 10.83 23.39 Harry Breechen 1943 1953 343 18.37 22.89 Lon Warneke 1931 1945 261 13.03 22.72 Preacher Roe 1944 1954 232 14.22 22.07 Sal Maglie 1945 1958 245 20.41 21.72 Johnny Sain 1942 1953 665 13.83 21.65 Warren Spahn 1942 1965 377 13.79 21.64 Burt Hooton 1971 1985 277 21.66 21.49 Jeff Pfeffer 1914 1924 239 17.15 21.46 Mort Cooper 1938 1947 237 15.19 21.40 Larry Jansen 1947 1956
The weird thing here is that no one is on both lists. John Buzhardt comes the closest to making the second, and he's in 27th place. And Harry Breechen comes closest to make the first with a 33rd place showing. I'm not sure why, but eight of the ten on the second list were active during the 1940s.
I thought (or at least was hoping) it might be worth our while to do the same analysis on individual seasons. Here are the pitchers (25 starts minimum) with the highest percentage of unique lines in a season, along with their stats as a starter that year:
Tot %Uni Avg Player Year IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA 25 72.00 3.80 Bobby Witt 1987 143 114 82 78 140 160 8 10 4.92 41 63.41 5.51 Nolan Ryan 1974 331 218 125 105 202 366 21 16 2.85 30 60.00 6.97 Nolan Ryan 1990 204 137 86 78 74 232 13 9 3.44 32 59.38 2.69 Nolan Ryan 1989 239.1 162 96 85 98 301 16 10 3.20 34 55.88 4.82 Randy Johnson 1998 244.1 203 102 89 86 329 19 11 3.28 34 55.88 5.29 Weldon Wyckoff 1915 243.2 211 122 95 146 134 9 21 3.51 40 55.00 3.88 Bobo Newsom 1938 325 328 202 184 188 223 20 16 5.10 31 54.84 3.55 Nolan Ryan 1978 234.2 183 106 97 148 260 10 13 3.72 35 54.29 10.54 Elmer Myers 1916 291 258 151 114 150 174 13 22 3.53 37 54.05 4.81 Nolan Ryan 1977 299 198 110 92 204 341 19 16 2.77
There's lots of Nolan Ryan on this list and lots of numbers, both good and bad. Collectively, the group was little better than average (with a combined won/loss record of 148-144), but they sure were interesting.
Here's the flip side. Since there were 59 qualifiers without a single unique game, the ten shown below were those with the highest average occurrence.
Tot %Uni Avg Player Year IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA 33 0.00 29.70 Bert Blyleven 1989 241 225 76 73 44 131 17 5 2.73 33 0.00 29.58 Rick Reuschel 1987 225 203 86 73 41 106 13 8 2.92 27 0.00 28.74 Milt Pappas 1959 199.1 166 80 74 69 115 14 9 3.34 32 0.00 28.53 Bryn Smith 1989 213.2 173 76 68 54 127 10 11 2.86 26 0.00 27.42 Ross Grimsley 1971 161.1 151 67 64 43 67 10 7 3.57 30 0.00 27.37 Kris Benson 2006 183 199 105 98 58 88 11 12 4.82 32 0.00 24.97 Eric Show 1988 234.2 201 86 85 53 144 16 11 3.26 33 0.00 24.79 Hank Aguirre 1963 218.1 211 89 84 65 129 14 13 3.46 26 0.00 24.65 Curt Schilling 1992 198 147 57 50 48 118 12 9 2.27 29 0.00 23.93 Masato Yoshii 1999 170 164 81 80 56 104 12 8 4.24
While this group has a better record (129-93) than the previous one, I don't think anyone would argue that the first has much more box office appeal (Weldon Wyckoff and Elmer Myers notwithstanding). Even Curt Schilling was not the 300+ strikeout pitcher we would eventually come to know and love/hate, but rather a promising young lad who pitched to contact.
Here are the longest streaks of starts without producing a unique pitching line:
Cnt Player Before After 94 Jeff Francis 9-13-2007 9- 2-2012 84 Rick Reuschel 8-13-1986 5- 2-1989 79 Masato Yoshii x 8- 7-2000 63 Kevin Gross 8-14-1985 7-16-1987 62 Curt Schilling 4-18-2005 9-16-2007 Where: Before - the unique start immediately before the streak began After - the start that broke the streak
Masato Yoshii's string was from the start of his major league career, while Curt Schilling broke his string in his next to last outing.
At the risk of beating this subject even further to death, I would like to look at the pitchers who produced the same pitching line the most times. Hint: it's not a lot.
Cnt Tot Player IP H R ER BB SO Dates 4 69 Tiny Bonham 9 5 1 1 0 4 8-25-1940(2) 5-16-1942(1) 9-23-1942 9-10-1945 4 34 Bert Blyleven 9 7 0 0 1 6 4-27-1977 5-31-1980 9-26-1984 9-28-1989 4 16 Eppa Rixey 9 9 3 3 2 0 5-21-1928(1) 5-12-1929 7-27-1929 7-29-1930 Where: Tot - the total number of occurrences from 1914 to 2014
Quite a few pitchers have had three identical pitching lines (98 not counting the ones above), but I wanted to look at a few special cases. First, two pitchers did all three in one season:
Player IP H R ER BB SO Dates Jim Turner 9 5 0 0 1 3 7- 9-1937 7-24-1937 8-24-1937 Todd Ritchie 6 7 3 3 1 4 6-17-2000 8-23-2000 9- 2-2000
Not only did Jim Turner produce three identical lines in a month and a half, he came very close to even more. During that period, he also had the following similar ones:
IP H R ER BB SO Date 9 5 1 1 1 2 7-14-1937 9 6 1 1 1 4 7-18-1937(2) 9 3 0 0 1 3 8-14-1937
And here are some relatively rare lines that a pitcher hit in triplicate:
Tot Player IP H R ER BB SO Dates 14 Greg Maddux 6 3 1 1 0 5 7- 7-1999 5-13-2000 8-27-2003 14 Jim Bunning 5 7 4 4 0 4 4-26-1959 5- 9-1964 5- 7-1971 16 Felix Hernandez 8 4 0 0 1 9 4-28-2009(2) 9- 5-2010 8-11-2013 17 Whitey Ford 9 3 0 0 4 8 4-17-1961 5-31-1963 5-22-1965 19 Red Lucas 9 10 3 3 1 1 6-12-1931 5-14-1933(1) 6-27-1937 19 Sandy Koufax 9 5 1 1 1 10 5-21-1962 8-12-1964 7- 3-1965 19 Randy Johnson 7 6 2 2 2 8 7-20-1995 6-19-2000 6-19-2001 Where: Tot - is still the total number of occurrences from 1914 to 2014
And finally, in addition to Felix Hernandez from the previous chart, here are the active pitchers on the list:
Player IP H R ER BB SO Dates Madison Bumgarner 6 5 1 1 1 7 4-27-2011 8- 4-2012 8-31-2014 Matt Cain 7 4 0 0 1 6 6-25-2011 6-30-2011 9-26-2012 Matt Cain 7 4 2 2 2 7 9-20-2005 8- 1-2006 5-21-2013 Danny Haren 7 4 2 2 0 4 5-26-2005 6- 5-2005 5-14-2013 Felix Hernandez 6 7 3 3 1 6 8-18-2006 6-10-2007 4-17-2009
On his first entry above, Matt Cain had the same line in back-to-back games. This has happened thirty times since 1914. The last time:
Player IP H R ER BB SO GS Dates Tommy Hanson 7 4 1 1 1 6 70 7- 4-2011 7- 9-2011
The rarest lines to be repeated:
Tot Player IP H R ER BB SO GS Dates 6 Tommy Thomas 7 10 6 6 4 3 32 6-11-1927 6-18-1927 8 Wes Ferrell 9 10 4 3 3 4 54 9-13-1935(1) 9-17-1935 Where: Tot - yep, still the total number of occurrences from 1914 to 2014
The highest and lowest game scores:
Player IP H R ER BB SO GS Dates Tim Hudson 8 3 0 0 1 6 81 8- 7-2010 8-13-2010 Dilson Torres 3.1 7 5 5 1 2 27 7-19-1995 9- 4-1995(2) Jim Faulkner 0 2 3 3 1 0 33 9- 8-1928(2) 4-23-1930
Those were the only two starts of Dilson Torres' career. I also added Jim Faulkner who, while his game score was higher than Torres', was even less effective. While these were not the only starts of Faulkner's career, they were his last.
Only one line has been repeated on two different occasions, and those came in back-to-back years:
Player IP H R ER BB SO GS Dates Paul Wilson 6 8 3 3 2 2 44 4- 4-2005 4- 9-2005 Jeff Suppan 6 8 3 3 2 2 44 5-31-2006 6- 5-2006
One more and then I promise to wrap this up. Here are the times that two opposing starters had the same line score:
Date IP H R ER BB SO GS Players 6-11-1933(1) 4.1 6 4 4 1 0 34 Fred Frankhouse Sloppy Thurston 6- 6-1964 7 5 2 2 2 4 61 Jack Sanford Dennis Bennett 4-20-1968 7 6 1 1 1 4 64 Pat Jarvis Gerry Arrigo 8-19-1995 3 4 4 4 2 3 36 John Smoltz Donovan Osborne 6-28-2011 7 6 2 2 2 0 55 Gavin Floyd Jason Hammel 8-31-2011 6 6 3 3 2 6 52 Rich Harden Ubaldo Jimenez 9- 3-2012 5 7 4 4 0 6 43 Patrick Corbin Barry Zito
The line that Frankhouse and Thurston produced that day in 1933 has not been seen since. And in case you were wondering, the same pitching line has not appeared more than twice on the same day since at least 1914.
I would like to wrap this up with a thought that occurred to me while looking at the long odds associated with any one pitching line. Actually it was more of a vision than a thought, inspired in part by New York's decision to join the rest of the civilized world by scattering casinos around the state. In short: people like to gamble. And while baseball (like many other sports) has had a rough history with the random science, I'm sure they would love to partner with a chance-based industry provided they were convinced that there would be no risk of it affecting the game on the field. In other words: they want it to be fix-proof.
Enter the pitching line lottery. Or rather, the one game pitching line fantasy sports game. Here's how it works: you go online, pick a game and enter a pitching line you want to bet for either or both of the starting pitchers. Once the line is entered, the website determines the odds of it occurring. This can be done by using the results of extensive game simulations or by referencing an existing database (which, gambling websites, I already have). Then the customer can decide if and how much he or she would like to wager. What could be simpler?
Like those one-day fantasy sport games springing up all around us, this one will be purely luck, but (and here's the good part) the players have the freedom to pretend otherwise, to think that some special insight of theirs was really responsible for the hefty payoff, not the goddess Fortuna. So in that way, I guess it's a lot like playing the stock market.
And it's virtually fix-proof. Since so much of the pitching line will be determined by when a starter is removed from the game, only a manager would really be in a position to ever so slightly improve the odds of a particular line occurring. And I think we can all agree that the odds of a manager being involved with gamblers is vanishingly small.
So bring on the one day pitching line fantasy sports game (patent pending)!
Notes:1Of course, there are even older batting line formats. The ones my grandfather grew up with contained at-bats, runs, hits, assists and putouts. His father was used to seeing those showing runs, hits, assists, putouts and errors. And his father played cricket so he doesn't count.
2As promised, here is the complete chart showing the breakdown of how far into the game starting pitchers went from 1914 to 2014:
Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 1914 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.5 2.2 0.7 0.5 3.5 0.6 0.3 3.0 0.8 0.5 4.0 1.0 0.4 5.8 1.0 0.5 9.8 0.9 0.5 13.3 1.3 0.7 38.8 5.8 9 1915 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 2.6 1.0 0.9 3.0 1.1 0.5 3.6 1.2 0.5 4.4 0.8 0.5 8.2 1.3 0.5 14.0 1.3 1.0 40.6 5.0 9 1916 0.4 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.5 2.5 1.2 0.3 2.6 1.0 0.6 4.6 1.0 0.5 5.2 1.4 0.7 9.0 1.3 0.7 13.0 1.4 0.8 37.4 6.3 9 1917 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 2.5 0.7 0.4 2.6 1.0 0.6 3.4 1.2 0.6 4.3 1.3 0.5 7.7 0.7 0.4 14.2 1.5 0.9 40.7 5.9 9 1918 0.5 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.7 0.5 0.6 2.3 1.0 0.4 3.1 0.8 0.4 3.9 0.6 0.3 7.2 0.8 0.7 16.5 1.3 1.3 42.1 7.8 9 1919 0.4 1.1 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 2.2 1.3 0.3 2.0 0.8 0.5 2.3 0.8 0.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 4.2 0.9 0.5 8.1 1.0 0.3 14.8 1.3 0.7 42.4 6.3 9 1920 0.2 1.1 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.9 1.1 0.5 2.6 0.7 0.4 2.3 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.8 0.8 4.9 0.9 0.9 7.8 0.9 0.6 14.0 1.2 1.0 41.7 6.0 9 1921 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.9 2.3 1.2 0.8 2.6 0.9 0.8 3.1 1.4 1.0 3.4 1.4 0.7 5.6 1.2 0.8 7.5 1.2 0.8 10.6 1.4 0.9 38.6 5.6 9 1922 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 2.1 1.4 0.8 2.6 1.5 1.3 2.9 0.9 0.9 3.8 1.3 0.8 5.7 1.3 0.9 7.6 1.1 0.5 12.0 1.2 1.1 37.7 4.6 9 1923 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 2.7 1.4 1.1 2.6 1.0 1.0 3.7 0.9 0.7 5.5 1.2 0.8 8.1 1.3 0.8 11.2 1.3 0.9 38.9 4.6 9 1924 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.9 2.3 1.3 1.3 2.8 1.0 1.2 2.6 1.6 0.8 4.2 1.4 1.1 5.0 1.4 0.5 8.0 1.1 0.6 10.8 1.7 1.5 36.7 4.4 9 1925 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.9 2.4 1.2 0.9 3.1 1.5 1.2 4.5 1.4 0.5 5.7 1.8 0.8 7.3 1.5 0.7 11.4 2.0 1.1 37.7 4.1 9 1926 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 2.1 1.5 0.9 3.2 1.3 1.0 2.9 1.5 0.9 4.4 2.2 1.1 5.4 1.3 0.6 8.0 1.1 0.9 12.6 1.5 1.1 36.4 2.8 9 1927 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.7 2.5 1.1 0.9 3.2 1.4 1.1 3.8 1.4 1.1 6.1 1.7 1.1 8.6 1.4 0.8 12.8 1.8 1.0 36.4 3.8 9 1928 0.6 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 2.2 1.2 0.8 2.9 1.5 1.0 3.9 1.5 0.9 5.4 1.7 1.2 9.0 1.3 1.3 11.5 1.7 1.1 36.4 4.0 9 1929 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 2.4 1.5 1.5 4.0 1.4 1.2 5.3 2.0 0.7 9.1 1.7 0.6 11.1 1.5 1.0 36.7 3.5 9 Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 1930 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.3 2.3 1.0 1.1 2.4 1.3 1.0 3.5 1.7 1.1 4.6 1.2 1.1 6.3 1.7 1.5 9.4 1.8 1.1 10.0 1.9 1.3 33.8 3.3 9 1931 0.8 1.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.3 0.9 2.1 1.4 1.1 3.2 1.7 1.1 7.3 1.3 1.0 8.8 1.4 0.8 12.9 1.5 1.2 36.7 3.7 9 1932 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.9 2.2 1.3 1.0 3.0 1.5 1.2 4.1 1.3 1.1 5.7 1.4 1.3 9.6 1.6 1.3 11.4 1.1 1.2 36.0 4.5 9 1933 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.8 2.4 1.5 1.3 4.0 2.0 1.0 6.2 1.6 1.1 9.1 1.8 1.1 11.1 1.5 1.4 34.5 5.0 9 1934 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 0.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 2.2 1.3 1.0 3.3 1.6 1.4 4.0 1.4 1.3 6.4 1.9 1.6 8.6 1.8 1.4 9.6 1.7 0.9 34.0 3.7 9 1935 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.9 2.3 1.5 1.3 2.9 1.0 1.5 3.8 1.5 1.2 7.3 1.7 1.3 8.4 1.4 1.3 9.7 1.5 1.0 34.6 4.2 9 1936 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.1 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.3 3.4 1.6 1.0 4.8 1.6 1.1 6.6 1.8 1.2 8.2 1.7 1.1 10.0 1.7 1.1 33.7 3.5 9 1937 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.3 3.3 1.8 1.1 3.7 0.9 1.1 6.3 1.9 1.7 8.7 1.9 1.5 10.9 1.4 1.2 34.4 3.6 9 1938 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 2.8 1.6 1.1 3.5 1.7 1.5 4.3 1.2 1.2 5.8 2.0 1.3 8.7 1.6 1.3 11.2 1.5 1.1 34.6 2.7 9 1939 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.0 3.1 1.7 1.3 4.4 1.8 1.1 6.4 1.7 1.1 8.3 2.1 1.3 10.2 1.5 1.3 33.6 2.8 9 1940 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 2.4 1.5 0.9 3.2 1.1 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.4 3.6 1.3 1.5 5.9 1.5 0.9 8.5 1.7 1.1 10.8 1.6 1.3 34.5 3.8 9 1941 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.3 2.7 1.0 1.0 2.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 1.7 1.2 5.7 1.7 1.0 8.9 1.5 1.6 10.2 1.8 1.0 34.0 4.2 9 1942 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.7 2.4 1.6 1.7 4.1 1.7 1.1 5.8 1.7 1.4 7.4 1.3 0.7 11.7 1.5 1.8 34.6 5.5 9 1943 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.0 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.7 2.6 1.3 1.4 3.5 1.8 1.1 6.7 1.3 1.4 9.3 1.6 1.8 10.5 2.1 2.2 32.8 6.2 9 1944 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.6 1.7 1.0 1.0 2.4 1.2 1.0 4.1 1.4 1.3 6.7 1.4 1.7 9.0 1.5 1.5 10.0 1.5 1.2 35.7 5.0 9 1945 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.0 1.3 1.1 3.2 2.2 1.1 4.2 1.1 1.0 5.5 1.5 1.6 8.5 1.9 1.2 11.1 1.6 1.5 35.5 4.0 9 1946 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.7 2.1 1.1 1.4 2.3 1.3 1.4 3.3 1.7 1.2 4.5 1.8 1.2 6.4 1.9 1.6 8.0 1.9 1.1 9.5 1.7 1.5 33.8 3.4 9 1947 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.0 2.1 1.2 1.4 2.4 1.4 1.5 3.1 2.3 1.6 4.4 2.2 1.5 6.1 1.9 1.9 8.8 2.0 1.5 9.9 1.5 1.1 31.2 3.0 9 1948 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.6 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.8 4.9 1.9 1.7 5.7 2.2 2.1 9.3 1.8 1.7 7.8 1.6 1.7 30.2 2.3 9 1949 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 2.5 1.8 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.4 4.3 1.8 1.4 6.9 2.1 1.3 9.5 1.5 1.2 9.0 1.9 1.3 31.1 3.5 9 Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 1950 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 2.0 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 3.1 2.1 1.6 3.6 1.6 1.4 5.9 2.0 2.0 8.9 2.0 1.4 9.6 1.5 1.6 32.4 3.0 9 1951 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.5 1.0 2.5 1.4 1.7 3.4 1.7 1.3 5.0 1.9 1.4 6.5 2.3 1.6 9.3 1.9 1.6 9.3 1.5 1.0 31.1 3.0 9 1952 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 2.8 1.7 1.7 4.9 1.4 1.3 6.9 1.7 1.5 9.9 2.3 1.8 10.6 2.1 1.3 30.2 3.2 9 1953 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.3 3.2 1.8 1.7 3.7 1.8 1.8 5.5 2.1 1.5 6.7 2.3 2.2 9.1 1.5 1.2 8.5 1.7 1.5 28.2 2.7 9 1954 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 2.8 1.3 1.4 2.5 1.1 1.4 3.8 1.7 1.2 5.0 2.0 1.7 6.9 2.4 2.2 10.0 1.8 2.0 8.1 1.6 1.4 28.0 3.3 9 1955 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 2.2 2.4 1.7 2.8 1.8 1.9 3.8 2.0 2.1 4.9 1.9 1.8 7.0 2.4 2.7 8.8 2.4 1.9 7.6 1.5 1.3 26.0 2.4 9 1956 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.1 2.7 1.2 1.4 3.9 1.9 1.3 5.7 2.1 1.8 8.3 2.5 2.5 9.4 2.5 1.5 6.9 2.0 1.6 26.6 2.4 9 1957 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.2 3.8 1.5 1.9 5.1 2.1 1.9 6.9 2.4 2.5 10.2 2.4 1.7 8.0 2.3 1.6 24.7 3.1 9 1958 0.5 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.9 1.7 1.5 3.0 2.0 2.1 5.0 2.2 2.2 7.6 2.6 1.9 9.4 2.4 1.9 7.7 2.0 1.8 25.5 1.9 9 1959 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.7 3.7 1.5 1.5 4.7 1.5 1.7 7.6 2.3 2.1 10.9 2.5 2.0 8.2 2.1 1.4 26.3 2.1 9 1960 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 2.5 1.5 1.4 3.9 2.1 1.5 5.5 2.6 1.6 7.8 3.0 2.5 11.4 2.1 1.9 8.3 1.7 1.7 23.2 2.1 9 1961 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 2.7 1.5 1.1 3.7 1.9 2.0 5.7 2.4 2.1 8.7 3.0 2.4 11.5 2.4 2.0 7.8 2.0 2.1 22.7 1.5 9 1962 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.8 3.2 1.6 1.6 3.8 1.8 1.8 5.7 2.8 1.9 8.1 2.6 2.8 10.5 3.0 2.2 7.5 2.0 1.8 22.7 2.0 9 1963 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.6 1.8 1.4 3.2 1.9 1.9 6.1 2.0 2.1 8.2 2.6 2.5 11.8 2.5 2.5 7.9 2.1 1.6 23.8 1.9 9 1964 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.9 1.3 1.4 4.0 2.1 2.3 5.2 2.7 1.8 8.3 3.3 2.9 10.7 2.6 2.2 7.5 2.2 1.3 22.1 2.0 9 1965 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.9 1.1 1.4 3.9 2.1 2.1 6.5 2.6 2.0 8.5 3.2 2.7 11.4 2.8 2.2 7.3 2.0 1.3 21.1 1.8 9 1966 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 2.5 1.9 1.5 3.8 2.3 2.2 7.2 2.7 1.9 9.0 3.7 2.9 10.8 3.2 1.6 7.1 1.8 1.2 21.3 1.3 9 1967 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 1.4 1.5 2.7 1.5 1.4 3.5 2.0 2.1 6.4 2.5 2.2 8.8 3.1 2.4 11.2 2.9 2.1 7.6 2.2 1.1 22.2 2.0 9 1968 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.3 1.5 3.1 2.1 1.6 5.6 2.5 2.0 8.6 3.2 2.1 12.8 3.2 2.2 7.7 2.2 1.6 25.0 2.0 9 1969 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.2 2.6 1.7 1.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 6.3 2.7 2.1 8.9 2.7 2.8 11.4 2.7 2.4 7.0 1.5 1.7 23.5 1.7 9 Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 1970 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.9 1.4 1.2 2.3 1.5 1.4 3.3 2.5 2.0 6.2 2.8 2.0 10.2 3.3 2.9 12.4 3.4 2.2 7.2 2.4 1.4 20.4 1.3 9 1971 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.7 0.8 1.5 3.3 1.9 1.9 6.2 2.3 2.4 8.8 3.6 2.6 11.0 2.7 2.0 8.8 1.9 1.8 25.2 1.7 9 1972 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 3.4 1.7 1.3 6.1 2.4 1.9 9.9 3.0 2.9 11.8 2.4 2.6 8.5 2.3 1.6 24.0 2.3 9 1973 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.7 4.8 2.8 2.8 8.5 3.4 3.2 9.5 3.4 2.4 9.0 2.2 1.9 23.2 2.0 9 1974 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.8 2.0 1.6 4.9 2.6 2.3 7.6 4.3 3.3 10.1 3.1 2.2 9.0 2.6 1.4 23.5 2.1 9 1975 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 5.9 3.0 2.6 8.5 3.9 3.4 9.2 3.4 2.4 8.1 2.2 1.7 23.1 1.8 9 1976 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 3.0 2.0 1.8 6.3 2.3 2.5 9.4 3.5 2.9 10.1 3.1 2.3 8.3 2.1 1.3 22.6 2.5 9 1977 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 3.2 2.6 2.0 6.2 3.2 3.1 10.0 3.9 3.2 10.1 3.3 2.8 7.2 2.1 1.4 19.2 1.3 9 1978 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 2.9 2.2 1.8 5.8 3.0 2.3 8.8 4.1 2.9 11.6 3.0 2.5 9.3 2.4 1.5 21.1 1.2 9 1979 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.6 3.4 2.7 2.0 6.1 3.2 3.0 9.4 3.9 3.3 10.2 4.0 3.2 8.5 2.2 1.2 18.9 1.0 9 1980 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.5 3.5 2.3 2.4 6.7 3.0 2.5 9.4 4.0 4.0 11.4 3.6 2.4 8.5 2.0 1.4 17.7 1.3 9 1981 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 2.3 1.8 2.0 3.1 2.3 1.8 7.1 3.2 3.5 10.2 4.5 3.7 12.1 3.4 2.7 8.5 1.5 1.1 16.0 1.0 9 1982 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.7 3.7 2.7 2.1 6.7 3.4 3.4 10.2 4.4 4.0 12.1 3.6 2.4 8.2 1.9 1.0 15.1 1.2 9 1983 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.4 2.1 2.9 2.9 2.6 7.4 3.4 2.9 10.9 4.1 3.0 12.1 3.9 2.8 8.6 1.8 1.3 15.1 1.0 9 1984 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.8 3.7 2.3 1.9 8.4 3.3 3.0 11.1 4.2 4.0 13.7 3.3 2.6 9.4 2.0 1.1 13.3 0.6 7 1985 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.5 1.9 3.5 2.5 2.3 8.4 3.6 2.8 11.4 3.7 3.7 14.0 3.4 2.9 8.3 1.5 1.0 13.7 0.6 7 1986 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.8 3.4 2.4 2.5 9.4 3.0 3.2 11.7 4.4 3.1 14.1 3.4 2.6 8.1 1.7 1.4 12.4 0.7 7 1987 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.2 2.2 1.8 2.1 3.8 2.6 2.2 9.0 4.0 3.1 12.3 4.4 4.0 13.2 3.5 2.5 7.3 1.2 1.0 11.8 0.4 7 1988 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 3.2 2.0 1.5 7.0 3.1 2.7 13.1 4.9 3.7 14.8 3.6 2.5 10.3 1.8 1.1 12.9 0.7 7 1989 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.6 3.8 2.2 2.2 9.0 3.6 3.6 12.3 4.2 3.7 15.6 3.1 2.4 9.5 1.6 1.0 10.0 0.4 7 Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 1990 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.3 2.4 1.7 1.8 3.6 2.2 2.1 9.3 3.3 3.1 13.1 5.1 4.3 15.2 3.2 2.7 8.6 1.4 0.8 8.7 0.2 7 1991 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.7 3.8 2.7 2.1 9.1 3.4 3.4 13.5 4.5 3.7 16.3 3.3 2.7 9.6 1.3 1.0 7.7 0.2 7 1992 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.9 3.4 2.3 2.2 9.1 3.6 3.4 13.7 4.3 3.7 17.1 2.7 2.4 10.6 1.4 0.8 8.6 0.3 7 1993 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 2.2 1.3 1.9 3.7 2.4 2.6 9.1 3.7 3.4 14.2 3.9 4.5 15.9 3.2 2.4 10.8 1.1 0.7 7.1 0.2 7 1994 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.2 1.3 1.5 3.5 2.2 2.7 8.3 4.2 3.9 14.8 4.0 4.4 16.0 3.0 2.4 10.9 0.7 0.6 7.1 0.1 7 1995 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.5 1.7 1.8 4.2 2.5 2.3 10.7 4.0 3.7 15.8 3.8 3.7 15.9 2.6 2.4 8.0 1.3 0.4 6.2 0.1 7 1996 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.3 1.6 1.8 4.2 2.6 2.3 10.9 4.1 4.0 14.1 4.2 4.5 16.7 2.7 2.2 8.5 0.9 0.7 5.8 0.0 7 1997 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 2.3 1.5 1.5 4.3 3.0 2.1 11.5 3.8 2.7 15.9 4.6 4.3 18.4 2.6 2.0 8.1 0.9 0.3 5.4 0.0 7 1998 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 4.1 2.2 2.5 10.2 3.7 4.2 16.3 4.7 4.7 18.3 2.6 2.1 8.7 0.7 0.4 5.3 0.0 7 1999 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.9 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.0 4.2 2.4 2.3 11.6 3.8 4.2 17.4 4.4 4.3 17.2 2.2 1.8 8.1 0.4 0.3 4.2 0.0 6 2000 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 2.3 1.7 1.7 4.0 2.5 1.9 11.1 3.6 4.1 17.2 4.0 4.6 18.8 2.7 2.0 7.4 0.5 0.4 4.1 0.0 7 2001 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.0 2.3 1.3 1.5 3.9 2.2 2.1 12.1 3.9 4.2 19.2 4.5 4.3 19.1 2.0 2.0 6.6 0.5 0.3 3.4 0.0 6 2002 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.6 4.3 2.1 2.0 12.6 3.9 3.8 19.4 4.1 3.6 19.3 2.6 1.4 7.0 0.4 0.1 3.8 0.0 6 2003 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.8 2.1 1.2 1.5 4.0 2.5 2.3 12.2 3.5 4.0 21.1 4.1 4.0 18.5 2.1 1.8 6.1 0.4 0.2 3.6 0.0 6 2004 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 2.3 1.0 1.6 4.8 2.3 2.1 12.7 3.8 4.6 19.4 4.5 4.7 18.8 1.9 1.6 6.2 0.4 0.3 2.6 0.0 6 2005 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.8 1.3 1.5 3.3 1.9 2.0 11.9 4.3 3.9 20.3 4.2 4.3 18.8 2.0 1.8 8.2 0.5 0.2 3.4 0.0 6 2006 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 2.0 1.2 1.9 4.0 2.2 2.0 13.7 4.6 4.2 20.7 3.4 4.2 18.5 1.6 1.4 6.3 0.4 0.4 2.4 0.0 6 2007 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.3 4.3 2.4 2.7 13.0 4.7 4.2 22.2 4.1 4.3 18.5 1.4 1.5 5.0 0.3 0.2 1.9 0.0 6 2008 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.2 1.5 4.5 2.3 2.4 13.6 4.6 4.3 22.8 4.2 3.5 17.9 1.6 1.5 5.2 0.3 0.2 2.3 0.0 6 2009 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 2.3 1.4 1.7 3.8 2.6 2.2 14.1 4.3 4.5 22.3 3.8 3.7 17.8 1.9 1.2 5.4 0.3 0.2 2.6 0.0 6 Year 0 .1 .2 1 1.1 1.2 2 2.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 4.1 4.2 5 5.1 5.2 6 6.1 6.2 7 7.1 7.2 8 8.1 8.2 9 9+ TOP 2010 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.1 1.1 3.8 2.2 2.1 11.6 4.4 4.4 22.0 4.5 4.2 19.5 2.0 1.7 7.3 0.3 0.1 2.6 0.0 6 2011 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 3.4 2.0 2.3 11.4 4.4 4.2 22.7 4.7 4.5 19.2 1.9 2.4 6.8 0.2 0.4 2.9 0.0 6 2012 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.8 1.3 1.6 4.1 2.6 2.4 12.6 4.4 4.5 21.4 4.5 4.9 18.0 2.3 1.6 5.7 0.3 0.2 2.3 0.0 6 2013 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 3.7 2.6 2.4 13.0 4.4 4.8 21.8 4.3 4.6 19.4 2.2 1.4 5.4 0.5 0.2 2.0 0.0 6 2014 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.0 1.2 3.6 2.6 2.1 12.4 4.5 5.0 22.2 5.0 4.9 19.6 1.9 1.6 5.6 0.4 0.3 2.0 0.0 6
3Actually, it's 32.9%. Each starting pitching has a 18.06% (62077/343782) chance of producing a unique line, and of course each game has two starting pitchers, so the probability of at least one of them having a unique line is (2 * 18.06%) - (18.06 * 18.06). Or the odds of either one doing it minus the odds of both of them doing it.
Full disclosure: I totally screwed this up in the original version of the article. Thanks to Kerry Whisnant for pointing out the error of my ways.
At the close of play on May 14, 2016, the Chicago Cubs had outscored their opponents by more runs (110) than the Atlanta Braves had scored (109), with both teams having played 35 games. So that got me to wondering what was the latest into a season (by the total number of games the teams had played) where one team had a run differential greater than another team's runs scored.
Well, it wasn't all that uncommon during the National Association. For example, here is the list for 1875:
G Date Team G W L RS RA DIF TEAM G W L RS RA 62 1875- 7- 3 HAR n 35 25 10 223 117 106 WAS n 27 4 23 95 333 72 1875- 7- 5 ATH n 36 27 7 395 167 228 HAR n 36 25 11 223 124 63 1875- 7- 5 ATH n 36 27 7 395 167 228 NH n 27 3 24 98 257 63 1875- 7- 5 HAR n 36 25 11 223 124 99 NH n 27 3 24 98 257 65 1875- 7- 7 ATH n 37 27 8 399 179 220 WAS n 28 5 23 107 338 78 1875- 7-19 ATH n 40 28 10 427 194 233 PHI n 38 20 18 229 199 61 1875- 7-20 STL n 33 26 7 223 140 83 ATL n 28 2 26 78 263 107 1875- 8-23 BOS n 58 50 6 582 218 364 STL n 49 31 18 284 237 106 1875- 8-28 ATH n 57 43 12 556 262 294 STL n 49 31 18 284 237 117 1875- 9-24 ATH n 63 46 15 595 297 298 CHI n 54 26 27 296 300 134 1875-10- 8 ATH n 68 49 17 638 323 315 MUT n 66 30 34 312 383 150 1875-10-13 BOS n 75 65 7 765 299 466 HAR n 75 47 25 465 280 149 1875-10-23 BOS n 79 69 7 806 323 483 MUT n70 30 38 323 420 149 1875-10-25 BOS n 79 69 7 806 323 483 PHI n 70 37 31 470 376
This list, like the ones below, only include teams that played roughly the same number of games (with a difference of less than ten). And only one entry is shown for each pairing (the one with the most combined number of games).
On October 13, 1875, only one other team in the National Association (the Athletics) had scored as many runs as Boston's run differential. And Boston would have had many more entries on the list above had more teams approached the number of games played by the Red Stockings.
And the talent in 1876 wasn't spread much more evenly:
G Date Team G W L RS RA DIF TEAM G W L RS RA 82 1876- 8- 1 CHI N 43 36 7 411 156 255 PHI N 39 11 27 251 326 112 1876- 9- 8 CHI N 57 45 12 538 202 336 STL N 55 38 17 335 199 127 1876- 9-30 CHI N 66 52 14 624 257 367 HAR N 61 39 21 364 248 135 1876-10- 5 CHI N 66 52 14 624 257 367 LOU N 69 30 36 280 344 131 1876-10- 9 CHI N 66 52 14 624 257 367 CIN N 65 9 56 238 579 123 1876-10-17 CHI N 66 52 14 624 257 367 NY N 57 21 35 260 412
Of the Chicago White Stockings opponents that year, only Boston managed to escape making this list. By September 8th, the St. Louis Brown Stockings had a .691 winning percentage and still had scored fewer runs than Chicago's run differential. By the way, Chicago finished its season on September 27th, but the season continued for other teams as late as October 21st.
The list for the rest of the 19th and the start of the 20th century:
G Date Team G W L RS RA DIF TEAM G W L RS RA 87 1880- 7-17 CHI N 44 38 5 301 138 163 BUF N 43 17 26 162 244 123 1880- 8-27 CHI N 63 51 11 405 202 203 CIN N 60 14 46 202 325 60 1884- 6-14 NY a 32 24 8 236 129 107 WAS a 28 5 23 104 201 70 1884- 6-18 STL U 34 31 3 338 116 222 PHI U 36 9 27 218 322 87 1884- 7- 3 STL U 44 40 4 418 157 261 WAS U 43 12 31 236 337 183 1884- 9-15 STL U 93 81 11 764 340 424 C-P U 90 39 49 423 474 66 1885- 6-18 CHI N 34 28 6 256 132 124 BOS N 32 10 22 123 167 212 1885-10- 1 CHI N 108 86 21 800 427 373 STL N 104 35 67 370 554 62 1902- 5-26 PIT N 33 28 5 211 87 124 STL N 29 10 19 115 183 68 1902- 5-28 PIT N 34 29 5 215 90 125 CHI N 34 20 11 122 104 66 1902- 5-29 PIT N 34 29 5 215 90 125 BRO N 32 13 19 124 141 65 1902- 5-29 PIT N 34 29 5 215 90 125 PHI N 31 11 20 121 174 167 1902- 7-31 PIT N 82 61 20 448 218 230 NY N 85 27 55 229 386 91 1905- 6- 7 NY N 45 35 10 254 109 145 BRO N 46 15 31 144 207 111 1905- 6-18 NY N 56 39 17 290 154 136 BOS N 55 17 37 132 292 66 1907- 5-25 NY N 33 26 7 139 73 66 BRO N 33 7 25 61 107
During the Pirates 29-5 start in 1902, here was their record against each team in the league:
Team W L RS RA DIF STL N 7 0 59 22 37 CIN N 7 0 52 15 37 CHI N 3 2 25 12 13 BRO N 3 1 25 12 13 PHI N 4 0 23 10 13 NY N 3 1 17 6 11 BOS N 2 1 14 13 1
Despite their poor showing against the Pirates, the Reds joined the Braves as the only other team in the league that year not to make the list above, thanks in large part to 14-4, 24-2 and 15-1 victories over the Cards, Phillies and Giants.
Typically these lists include great teams on one side and awful teams on the other, but on May 25th of that year, the Pirates' run differential exceeded or tied the runs scored by each of the next four teams in the standings.
The 1905 Giants opened their season with 10-1 and 15-0 victories over the Braves, on their way to a 19-3 mark against Boston that year, outscoring the last place club 145-40. It was the highest ratio of runs scored to runs allowed in a matchup between two teams from the end of the 19th century to the start of divisional play in 1969. The top ten:
Year Team Oppon W L RS RA RS/RA 1905 NY N BOS N 19 3 145 40 3.625 1965 PIT N NY N 14 4 105 33 3.182 1933 NY N CIN N 17 4 99 33 3.000 1955 CLE A BAL A 19 3 107 36 2.972 1918 NY N BOS N 15 1 84 29 2.897 1904 NY N BOS N 20 2 127 45 2.822 1904 CHI A WAS A 18 4 110 40 2.750 1903 PHI A WAS A 16 3 128 47 2.723 1909 PIT N BOS N 20 1 117 43 2.721 1904 NY N BRO N 19 3 111 41 2.707
I eliminated the years before and after this period, not because of a bias against the other eras, but because teams often played each other only a handful of times during those years, making a comparision of ratios somewhat less meaningful.
And the matchups with the largest run differential. First during the 19th century:
Year Team Oppon W L RS RA DIF 1884 CHI N PHI N 14 2 191 74 117 1887 STL a CLE a 18 1 215 98 117 1891 BOS a WAS a 18 2 176 61 115 1889 BRO a LOU a 19 1 185 71 114 1885 NY N BUF N 15 1 150 38 112 1890 PHI N PIT N 17 2 195 83 112 1886 CHI N KC N 17 1 174 63 111 1887 PHI N IND N 17 1 182 75 107 1890 BRO N PIT N 18 2 197 91 106 1887 BAL a CLE a 17 3 163 58 105 1899 CIN N CLE N 14 0 140 35 105
Unlike many other teams on this list, the White Stockings did not post a gaudy record in 1884 and, when they weren't walloping Philadelphia, played only .500 ball (48-48). And while certainly not a good team, the Quakers were probably the best team on the debit side of this list with a 39-73 record. Of course, that's not saying much when your competition are teams like the 1889 Louisville Colonels (27-111), the 1890 Pittsburgh Alleghenys (23-113) and the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20-134), the only teams in major league history other than the 1897 St. Louis Browns to lose more than hundred games while winning less than thirty.
And the largest run differential since 1900:
Year Team Oppon W L RS RA DIF 1939 NY A PHI A 18 4 179 68 111 1950 BOS A PHI A 19 3 190 84 106 1905 NY N BOS N 19 3 145 40 105 1935 DET A STL A 17 5 182 78 104 1950 BOS A STL A 19 3 216 115 101 1901 PIT N NY N 16 4 160 60 100 1936 WAS A STL A 19 3 185 91 94 1927 NY A BOS A 18 4 171 80 91 1936 NY A PHI A 16 6 180 89 91 1928 PIT N PHI N 18 4 184 94 90
All but three of the teams on the plus side of the ledger took their league's pennant. The exceptions: the 1950 Red Sox (on this list twice) finished third, and both the 1936 Senators and the 1928 Pirates ended up in fourth place, Here's how those teams did against the two worst teams in the league compared to everyone else:
-- Two Worst -- -- All Else ---
Year Team W L RS RA W L RS RA
1950 BOS A 38 6 406 199 56 54 621 605
1936 WAS A 35 9 338 179 47 62 551 620
1928 PIT N 34 9 340 189 51 58 497 515
None of the teams on the wrong side of the list above finished better than seventh.
But we digress.
Back to the issue at hand, here's the (much shorter) list of teams with larger run differentials than another team's runs scored since 1907:
78 1929- 6- 1 PHI A 39 30 9 270 144 126 BOS A 39 11 28 124 241 60 2003- 5- 4 NY A 31 23 8 188 110 78 DET A 29 4 25 74 151 60 2016- 5- 7 CHI N 29 23 6 180 79 101 PHI N 31 17 14 98 126 70 2016- 5-14 CHI N 35 27 8 213 103 110 ATL N 35 9 26 107 169
The 1929 Athletics clobbered the Red Sox in their first ten meetings that year, going 8-2 while outscoring Boston 87-28. Included in that record were wins by scores of 24-6 (a game which featured the first five-hit games in the careers of Jimmie Foxx and Al Simmons) and 16-2. The 2016 Cubs and Atlanta were the only other pair of teams to play each other during the stretches above, splitting two games.
Obviously, these lists contain a lot of very good teams on the left side and a lot of bad teams on the right. But that got me to wondering: what was the largest positive run differential for a team that was worse than the one it beat up on. Here is the list if by "worse" we mean a winning percentage at least 100 points lower:
Season Season Team vs Team
Year Team W L Team W L W L RS RA DIF
1969 HOU N ( 81- 81) NY N (100- 62) 10 2 78 36 42
1955 WAS A ( 53-101) CLE A ( 93- 61) 13 9 119 83 36
1933 BOS A ( 63- 86) PHI A ( 79- 72) 14 8 161 126 35
1985 SEA A ( 74- 88) KC A ( 91- 71) 10 3 65 31 34
2001 COL N ( 73- 89) STL N ( 93- 69) 6 3 64 33 31
1894 CHI N ( 57- 75) PHI N ( 71- 57) 7 5 144 114 30
1999 BAL A ( 78- 84) ATL N (103- 59) 3 0 33 3 30
1923 CLE A ( 82- 71) NY A ( 98- 54) 12 10 129 102 27
1927 BOS A ( 51-103) CLE A ( 66- 87) 15 7 122 95 27
1970 CHI N ( 84- 78) CIN N (102- 60) 7 5 75 48 27
Mets fans of a certain age will no doubt remember the double-header loss to the Astros on July, 30, 1969. It featured an eleven-run ninth inning in the opener (including two grand-slam home runs), and a ten-run third inning in the night-cap. That second game was also notable for the long walk out to left field taken by Gil Hodges to remove Cleon Jones from the game.
And while it's hard to make this list in just three games, the 1999 Orioles did it by sweeping the Braves in a three-game interleague series in June that culminated in a 22-1 rout highlighted by a combined ten straight hits (seven of them for extra-bases) by Will Clark and Cal Ripken.
It didn't quite make the list, but this entry caught my eye:
Season Season Team vs Team
Year Team W L Team W L W L RS RA DIF
1924 STL N ( 65- 89) BRO N ( 92- 62) 7 15 127 107 20
The way to lose more than two-thirds of your games while outscoring your opponent by twenty runs is to win big (but not often) and that's what the Cardinals did against the Dodgers that year. Their average score was 10.3 to 2.6 in their seven wins and 5.9 to 3.7 in the fifteen losses. Most of the damage was done in three games: routs of 12-0 on July 14th, 17-0 on August 24th, and 17-3 on September 16th. The last game was made famous by Jim Bottomley's six hits and twelve RBIs.
Finally, I thought it might be interesting to look at the largest run differential (good positive and negative) over a couple of arbitrary ranges. Let's start with ten games. First, the positive run differentials:
Good Not Good
Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE
CHI N 1876- 7-11 10 0 0 165 37 128 16.5- 3.7 ECK n 1872- 5- 9 0 10 0 49 228 -179 4.9-22.8
BOS n 1875- 4-26 10 0 0 145 25 120 14.5- 2.5 WAS n 1875- 4-29 0 10 0 28 179 -151 2.8-17.9
BOS n 1872- 6-12 10 0 0 163 50 113 16.3- 5.0 BAL n 1874- 5- 1 0 10 0 44 172 -128 4.4-17.2
BOS n 1874- 5- 2 10 0 0 152 45 107 15.2- 4.5 KEK n 1871- 6-21 1 9 0 52 176 -124 5.2-17.6
ATH n 1875- 6- 5 9 1 0 139 33 106 13.9- 3.3 PHI a 1890- 9-20(1) 0 10 0 32 144 -112 3.2-14.4
ATH n 1872- 5- 1 8 1 1 180 74 106 18.0- 7.4
The date is the start of the stretch. And again, overlapping stretches have been removed from the lists.
The 1871 Ft. Wayne Kekiongas have the distinction of winning the first game in National Association history (appropriately, the 1875 Red Stockings won the last), but their 2-0 win that day was not typical of their season. They started the year winning four or five and finished with two straight victories, but in between suffered a rash of one-side defeats, including ones by scores of 21-0 13-0 20-3 32-12 30-9 and 26-7.
For the 1872 Brooklyn Eckfords, the stretch above ended with their first National Association victory a 10-1 trouncing of the (tied for) second-place Baltimore Canaries (back then, a team's position in the standings was determined by games won, not winning percentage). The losing Baltimore pitcher that day, Bobby Mathews had pitched every inning the year before for the Kekiongas and would finish his career in 1887 with 297 wins.
All the teams on the lists above are from 1871 to 1876, when high scores (and blowouts) were common. Here are the average scores of games, as well as the percentage of games decided by ten or more runs (B-O% stands for blow-out percentage) in each five-year period from 1871 to 2015:
Years SCORE B-O% Years SCORE B-O% Years SCORE B-O% 1871-1875 11.3- 4.7 23.0 1921-1925 6.6- 3.1 4.5 1971-1975 5.6- 2.4 2.6 1876-1880 7.5- 3.0 9.6 1926-1930 6.7- 3.2 4.4 1976-1980 5.8- 2.7 2.6 1881-1885 7.6- 3.2 9.1 1931-1935 6.6- 3.0 4.8 1981-1985 5.9- 2.7 2.3 1886-1890 7.9- 3.6 9.2 1936-1940 6.7- 3.1 4.9 1986-1990 6.0- 2.7 3.0 1891-1895 8.4- 4.0 9.0 1941-1945 5.8- 2.5 3.1 1991-1995 6.2- 2.9 3.3 1896-1900 7.5- 3.4 7.2 1946-1950 6.2- 2.8 3.5 1996-2000 6.7- 3.2 4.2 1901-1905 6.0- 2.5 4.4 1951-1955 6.1- 2.7 3.6 2001-2005 6.5- 2.9 3.6 1906-1910 5.1- 2.0 2.6 1956-1960 6.0- 2.7 3.0 2006-2010 6.4- 2.9 3.6 1911-1915 5.7- 2.5 2.6 1961-1965 5.8- 2.6 2.3 2011-2015 5.9- 2.6 2.9 1916-1920 5.3- 2.3 1.9 1966-1970 5.5- 2.4 2.4
If we eliminate the National Association from these and the lists below, this is what we get for ten-game stretches:
Good Not Good
Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE
CHI N 1876- 7-11 10 0 0 165 37 128 16.5- 3.7 PHI a 1890- 9-20(1) 0 10 0 32 144 -112 3.2-14.4
STL U 1884- 4-24 10 0 0 126 25 101 12.6- 2.5 KC U 1884- 7- 4(2) 0 10 0 41 146 -105 4.1-14.6
BOS N 1879- 8-15 10 0 0 117 21 96 11.7- 2.1 CIN N 1876- 7-22 0 10 0 20 124 -104 2.0-12.4
PHI N 1894- 8-15 10 0 0 138 43 95 13.8- 4.3 PIT N 1890- 7- 8 1 9 0 41 139 -98 4.1-13.9
STL a 1886- 7-31 10 0 0 119 29 90 11.9- 2.9 PHI a 1890- 9-30 0 10 0 23 120 -97 2.3-12.0
BAL N 1894- 9- 3(1) 10 0 0 124 34 90 12.4- 3.4 NY a 1887- 8-25 0 10 0 55 150 -95 5.5-15.0
CHI N 1883- 8-22 10 0 0 123 34 89 12.3- 3.4 PIT N 1890- 8-15 0 10 0 24 118 -94 2.4-11.8
BOS N 1883- 6- 6 9 1 0 133 46 87 13.3- 4.6 LOU N 1894- 8-15 0 9 1 46 140 -94 4.6-14.0
The 1876 Chicago White Stockings and Cincinnati Red Stockings played each other six times during their overlapping streaks above, Chicago winning all of them by a combined score of 73-11. In 1879, Boston played only Troy or Syracuse from July 26th to August 30th, going 20-4 against the leagues two worst teams.
The run by the 1883 White Stockings was part of an eleven-game winning streak that ended when they went into Boston and were swept in a crucial four-game series that helped decide the pennant race. Boston's run that year included winning two of three from Chicago, but they owed their spot on the list above primarily to 13-2, 30-8 and 20-9 wins over Detroit and 12-1 and 29-4 victories over Philadelphia.
The second entries on both lists hail from the Union Association. One of the weird things about that league's schedule was two teams tended to play each other several games in a row. For example, the first eight games of the St. Louis Maroons' stretch above were played against Altoona, a team that disbanded at the end of May. They were replaced by Kansas City, whose streak above was part of a 4-48 run.
The 1894 Phillies and Louisville Colonels started their entries above with the last three games of their series in Philadelphia. It's perhaps not too surprising that the games were not particularly close, with the home team taking them all by a combined score of 60-11. The other entry from that year was part of an eighteen-game winning streak and a month-long 24-1 hot spell for the pennant-winning Orioles.
Despite the fact that overlapping stretches have been eliminated, both the 1890 Philadelphia Athletics and Pittsburgh Alleghenys make two appearances on the "Not Good" side of the ledger. (I did extend the list past the first five places to include the second Allegheny entry.) For the Athletics, the streaks were back-to-back, coming after the owners disbanded the team and the league decided to finish the season with a thrown together band of largely amateur and semi-pro players. The result was a season-ending 22-game losing streak, one that left a team that was in first place by six games on July 4th (with a 40-20 record) ahead of only the defunct Brooklyn Gladiators by the end.
The Alleghenys, on the other hand, were horrible all season long. Both of their entries above came entirely on the road, where they went 2-58 from July onward. They had five losing streaks of at least ten games, including one of 23 games. Here are the losing streaks longer than twenty games from 1871-2015:
# Team Start End 31 BRO n 1875- 5-29 1875-10- 9 26 LOU a 1889- 5-22 1889- 6-22(2) 24 CLE N 1899- 8-26 1899- 9-16 23 PIT N 1890- 8-12 1890- 9- 2 23 PHI N 1961- 7-29 1961- 8-20(1) 22 PHI a 1890- 9-16 1890-10-12 21 BAL A 1988- 4- 4 1988- 4-28
Here are the best and worst ten-game stretches only looking at those games played since 1901:
Good Not Good
Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE
NY A 1939- 8-20(2) 10 0 0 109 25 84 10.9- 2.5 CIN N 1901- 6-16 1 9 0 20 92 -72 2.0- 9.2
PIT N 1911- 7-22 10 0 0 91 16 75 9.1- 1.6 PHI A 1936- 6-24(2) 0 10 0 29 98 -69 2.9- 9.8
NY A 1938- 6-25 9 0 1 92 22 70 9.2- 2.2 PHI A 1954- 7-10 0 10 0 15 83 -68 1.5- 8.3
PIT N 1901- 8-31(2) 10 0 0 98 30 68 9.8- 3.0 ATL N 2015- 8-28 0 10 0 24 92 -68 2.4- 9.2
PIT N 1922- 7-30 10 0 0 103 36 67 10.3- 3.6 BOS N 1911- 5-30(2) 2 8 0 36 103 -67 3.6-10.3
NY A 1937- 7- 3 9 0 1 95 28 67 9.5- 2.8 MIN A 1993- 4-21 1 9 0 32 99 -67 3.2- 9.9
WAS A 1933- 6-17 9 1 0 89 24 65 8.9- 2.4 PHI A 1921- 9- 9 0 10 0 37 103 -66 3.7-10.3
CAL A 1979- 4-11 10 0 0 88 23 65 8.8- 2.3 STL A 1936- 4-29 0 10 0 43 109 -66 4.3-10.9
NY A 1998- 8- 3 9 1 0 90 25 65 9.0- 2.5 ATL N 1977- 4-24 0 10 0 31 96 -65 3.1- 9.6
Only two franchises occupy the top six "Good" slots and, for the Yankees, they appear in three consecutive years. The Detroit Tigers had three ten-game stretches with run differentials greater than sixty in 1934 (63 runs, starting on August 1st), 1935 (64 runs, starting on July 30th) and 1936 (61 runs, starting on June 25th). And the 1937 Yankees had another as well (62 runs, starting on May 21st).
The 1901 Pirates hot stretch includes a six-game sweep of the Giants in which Pittsburgh scored ten or more runs in all six games and fifteen in three straight. Here are the teams that hit double-digit runs totals in five or more consecutive games since 1900:
# Team Start End 6 PIT N 1901- 9- 4(1) 1901- 9- 6(2) 5 CLE A 1925- 7-23 1925- 7-29 5 PIT N 1925- 8-28 1925- 9- 1 6 NY N 1929- 6-19(1) 1929- 6-22(2) 5 CHI N 1930- 6- 1 1930- 6- 6 5 NY A 1930- 6-12 1930- 6-17 5 ATL N 2006- 7-14 2006- 7-18
Both the 1925 Pirates and 1929 Giants had their offensive explosions against a single team, the Phillies, and at a single park, Philadelphia's Baker Bowl. And the day after Pittsburgh left town in 1925, the Phillies gave up 24 runs in the second game of their double-header with the Giants, highlighted by Irish Meusel's nine RBIs.
The all-time record is eleven straight games scoring ten or more runs, set from June 19th to July 30 by the 1873 Philadelphia White Stockings. And the post-National Association mark is seven, held by three teams:
Team Start End CLE N 1894- 7- 7 1894- 7-14 BOS N 1894- 8- 4 1894- 8-11 WAS N 1896- 6- 4 1896- 6-12
To give you some idea of the level of offense in the National League in 1894, Boston also had two streaks of six straight double-digit games earlier that season (and another of five straight), lost two of the seven games in the entry above, and the average score of their games that year was 9.2-7.5. Their best pitcher, Kid Nichols went 32-13 while giving up 308 runs in 407 innings.
Without (much) further ado, here are the best and worst twenty and thirty game stretches. First twenty games:
Good Not Good
Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE
BOS n 1875- 4-19 20 0 0 258 59 199 12.9- 3.0 PHI a 1890- 9-20(1) 0 20 0 55 264 -209 2.8-13.2
BOS n 1872- 4-30 19 1 0 254 62 192 12.7- 3.1 ECK n 1872- 5- 7 2 18 0 106 313 -207 5.3-15.6
CHI N 1876- 6-24 16 4 0 266 87 179 13.3- 4.3 WAS n 1875- 4-29 4 16 0 85 273 -188 4.2-13.6
ATH n 1875- 5-18 17 2 1 241 73 168 12.1- 3.7 RES n 1873- 5-26 2 18 0 87 262 -175 4.3-13.1
STL U 1884- 4-20 20 0 0 234 67 167 11.7- 3.3 ATL n 1875- 6- 3 0 20 0 50 220 -170 2.5-11.0
BOS N 1879- 7-30 18 2 0 194 48 146 9.7- 2.4 PIT N 1890- 7- 8 2 18 0 83 249 -166 4.2-12.4
BOS n 1873- 9-10 18 1 1 284 141 143 14.2- 7.1 ATL n 1873- 8-28 3 16 1 92 255 -163 4.6-12.8
BOS N 1897- 5-31 19 1 0 215 74 141 10.8- 3.7 BAL n 1874- 4-22 4 16 0 92 252 -160 4.6-12.6
BOS n 1874- 5- 2 18 2 0 225 91 134 11.2- 4.6 CIN N 1876- 7-22 1 19 0 47 204 -157 2.3-10.2
BAL N 1894- 8-30 19 1 0 202 69 133 10.1- 3.5 KC U 1884- 7- 4(2) 1 18 1 76 231 -155 3.8-11.6
And now thirty:
Good Not Good
Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE
BOS n 1872- 4-30 27 3 0 379 135 244 12.6- 4.5 ATL n 1875- 6- 3 0 30 0 94 342 -248 3.1-11.4
CHI N 1876- 6-29 23 7 0 353 112 241 11.8- 3.7 PHI a 1890- 9- 3 2 28 0 90 337 -247 3.0-11.2
BOS n 1875- 4-29 27 2 1 340 101 239 11.3- 3.4 PIT N 1890- 7- 4(2) 2 28 0 141 367 -226 4.7-12.2
BOS n 1873- 7-16 25 4 1 438 234 204 14.6- 7.8 WAS n 1873- 4-18 4 26 0 168 386 -218 5.6-12.9
STL U 1884- 4-20 27 3 0 304 100 204 10.1- 3.3 ATL n 1872- 5- 2 6 24 0 184 386 -202 6.1-12.9
ATH n 1875- 5-18 23 5 2 331 128 203 11.0- 4.3 CIN N 1876- 6- 3 2 28 0 111 313 -202 3.7-10.4
BOS N 1879- 7-28 26 4 0 280 77 203 9.3- 2.6 CLE N 1899- 9- 5(1) 1 29 0 83 285 -202 2.8- 9.5
BOS N 1897- 5-19 27 3 0 298 116 182 9.9- 3.9 KC U 1884- 6-15 3 26 1 116 315 -199 3.9-10.5
ATH n 1872- 5- 1 22 7 1 402 226 176 13.4- 7.5 BAL n 1874- 4-22 6 24 0 161 350 -189 5.4-11.7
BAL N 1894- 8-11 25 5 0 290 119 171 9.7- 4.0 PIT N 1890- 8-13 1 29 0 91 276 -185 3.0- 9.2
We've seen most of these teams, both good and not so good, before. In case you had any doubts about Boston's domination over their National Association opponents, each of their teams from 1872 to 1875 show up on the "Good" lists at least once. And while usually an appearance on the "Not Good" side does not bode well for a franchise's survival (for example, the 1872 Brooklyn Eckfords, 1873 Elizabeth Resolutes, 1874 Baltimore Canaries, 1875 Washington Nationals and the 1899 Cleveland Spiders would be done following the seasons represented above), the Brooklyn Atlantics would stick around long enough to register a historically awful stretch in three different years.
And in case you were wondering, the Pittsburgh Alleghenys played two games between their thirty-game entries above, beating the Chicago Colts 6-4 on August 11th (which ended a ten-game losing streak) before losing to them 13-12 in 12 innings the next day (which started the 23-game losing streak mentioned above).
The same lists since 1900, starting with twenty games:
Good Not Good
Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE
NY A 1939- 8-11 17 3 0 197 68 129 9.9- 3.4 PHI A 1939- 8- 6(1) 4 16 0 71 172 -101 3.5- 8.6
NY N 1904- 6-17 19 1 0 150 45 105 7.5- 2.2 ATL N 2015- 8-17 1 19 0 52 153 -101 2.6- 7.7
WAS A 1933- 6- 8(2) 17 3 0 169 64 105 8.4- 3.2 BOS N 1935- 6-30(2) 1 19 0 73 172 -99 3.7- 8.6
NY A 1938- 6-25 17 2 1 178 75 103 8.9- 3.8 NY A 1912- 6-15 2 18 0 61 157 -96 3.0- 7.8
PIT N 1911- 7-20(2) 18 2 0 149 50 99 7.4- 2.5 CIN N 1901- 6- 4 3 15 2 67 162 -95 3.3- 8.1
ANA A 2002- 4-23 17 3 0 151 55 96 7.6- 2.8 BOS N 1940- 7-14(1) 2 18 0 70 165 -95 3.5- 8.2
PIT N 1901- 9- 3 17 3 0 160 65 95 8.0- 3.2 DET A 1996- 5-14 1 19 0 68 162 -94 3.4- 8.1
NY A 1930- 6-12 16 4 0 201 107 94 10.1- 5.3 BOS N 1911- 7-18 2 18 0 55 147 -92 2.8- 7.3
PIT N 1902- 4-26 18 2 0 145 54 91 7.2- 2.7 SEA A 1977- 8- 9 4 16 0 57 149 -92 2.8- 7.4
NY A 1953- 7-29 15 5 0 140 49 91 7.0- 2.5 STL A 1935- 6-23(2) 4 16 0 76 167 -91 3.8- 8.4
OAK A 2000- 9-10 16 4 0 154 63 91 7.7- 3.2
And the thirty:
Good Not Good
Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE Team Date G W L T RS RA DIF SCORE
NY A 1939- 8- 3 22 8 0 261 122 139 8.7- 4.1 DET A 1996- 5- 3 3 27 0 102 233 -131 3.4- 7.8
NY N 1904- 6- 6 25 5 0 191 65 126 6.4- 2.2 PHI A 1936- 6-24(1) 5 25 0 120 249 -129 4.0- 8.3
NY A 1939- 5- 2 26 4 0 238 113 125 7.9- 3.8 ATL N 2015- 8-17 4 26 0 85 205 -120 2.8- 6.8
NY A 1938- 8- 4 24 6 0 241 120 121 8.0- 4.0 BOS N 1924- 8-21(2) 5 25 0 68 187 -119 2.3- 6.2
PIT N 1901- 8-31(2) 26 4 0 228 108 120 7.6- 3.6 NY A 1912- 6-19 5 25 0 95 213 -118 3.2- 7.1
NY A 1931- 8-30 22 7 1 217 97 120 7.2- 3.2 COL N 1993- 5- 6 6 24 0 110 228 -118 3.7- 7.6
NY A 1938- 6-25 24 5 1 236 117 119 7.9- 3.9 PHI A 1939- 7-29 6 24 0 118 234 -116 3.9- 7.8
PIT N 1902- 4-19 25 5 0 202 85 117 6.7- 2.8 PHI A 1915- 9- 3 4 25 1 106 220 -114 3.5- 7.3
PIT N 1911- 7-20(1) 24 6 0 204 87 117 6.8- 2.9 PHI A 1921- 8-13(1) 6 24 0 127 241 -114 4.2- 8.0
PIT N 1928- 8- 2 22 8 0 239 122 117 8.0- 4.1 BRO N 1944- 6-28(1) 3 27 0 102 216 -114 3.4- 7.2
We mentioned earlier how the Yankees and Pirates dominated the list of best ten-game stretches, but it is even more pronounced on the thirty-game list. And four of the top seven were produced by the Yankees in one 222-game stretch between June 25, 1938 and September 1, 1939. One unusual thing about their top entry was their relatively mediocre 22-8 record, a span that even included a three-game losing streak.
Well I could go on and on, but I suspect this is more than enough for now.
Cy Morong recently posted a blog showing instances where a team lost a game despite having a much greater OPS than their victorious opponent. So you should probably read his post here before going much further into this one.
And before I start, I would like to say that the data in this article covers all the games played from 1912 to 2015 (this will save me from adding "since 1912" to all the tables and lists below).
Just so it's handy, here's an expanded table showing the largest positive disparity between a losing and winning team's OPS:
DIFF Date Team AB R H 2B 3B HR BB ER OPS Team AB R H 2B 3B HR BB ER OPS .659 2015- 9-30 ANA A 37 7 13 1 0 5 6 4 1.226 OAK A 35 8 6 1 1 0 7 2 .567 .643 1998- 5-10 OAK A 37 3 12 4 0 0 7 5 .877 CHI A 33 4 3 0 0 0 2 1 .234 .583 1999- 4-19 MON N 43 10 20 6 1 3 2 4 1.360 COL N 37 11 11 1 0 1 5 0 .777 .573 1918- 6-18 PIT N 30 0 9 2 0 0 3 1 .730 PHI N 25 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 .157 .526 1930- 8-11 BRO N 30 6 11 4 0 2 5 3 1.157 STL N 36 7 9 2 1 0 1 0 .631 .523 1917- 5- 6 PIT N 34 2 11 2 0 0 7 3 .821 CHI N 25 3 2 1 0 0 3 4 .299 .522 1979- 4-30 KC A 37 7 13 3 3 2 5 3 1.175 TEX A 29 8 7 2 0 0 5 0 .653 .505 2005- 8-31 MIN A 33 0 13 2 0 0 2 1 .899 KC A 30 1 5 1 0 0 1 1 .394 .492 1950- 8-11(2) DET A 33 1 13 0 0 1 4 1 .944 STL A 27 2 5 0 0 0 3 1 .452 .491 1989- 8-15 TEX A 39 0 13 1 0 0 2 1 .725 SEA A 25 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 .234
Hopefully, all of the abbreviations are obvious (ER = errors). Even though hit-by-pitch and sacrifice flies are part of the OPS calculations, I didn't show them to save space.
A few random observations on the games above.
The Dodgers probably would have won their 1930 game had it not been for the baserunning of Babe Herman, who helped turn a one-out bases-loaded single in the top of the first into an inning-ending double-play. He had second thoughts about attempting to score from second on the hit, returning to third only to find it occupied by the trailing runner. Instead of conceding one out, both runners left third (in opposite directions) and were tagged out. It wasn't quite the famous "three Dodgers on third" situation he caused four years earlier, but it was close.
Charlie Hough pitched two complete-game one-hitters during his career and lost them both. The 1989 Texas game was the second. One run scored after a balk and wild pitch, while the other scored on an error. In his other loss, he had a no-hitter with one out in the bottom of the ninth and no one on when George Wright, who had entered the game as a defensive replacement, turned what should have been out number two into a three-base error. A single broke up the no-hitter and tied the score before a passed ball, strike out, intentional walk and another passed ball (this one on the third strike out of the inning) brought around the deciding run.
Apart from the fact that the losing teams above made more errors (26-10) than the victors, it would seem that a poorer performance with runners in scoring position had a lot to do with dooming the better-hitting teams in these games. To test this rather obvious theory, I looked at all the games in which the losing team outperformed the winning by 400 or more OPS points (.400 to you and me) and computed their statistics both with and without runners in scoring position:
---------- No RISP ----------- ------------- RISP -----------
AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS
Losers 1826 685 131 20 86 157 1.038 677 139 27 7 12 99 .626
Winners 1752 249 34 6 12 146 .400 483 148 17 2 6 98 .794
I did say that this was pretty obvious and so it is.
Another thing we can see from the list above is that all these games were close. Only one of them was not a one-run loss and that was decided by two runs. So I figured I'd look at the biggest differences among teams that lost by one, two (okay, those are already in the chart above), three, four and so on. Here's what I found:
SD DIFF Date Team AB R H 2B 3B HR BB ER OPS Team AB R H 2B 3B HR BB ER OPS 1 .659 2015- 9-30 ANA A 37 7 13 1 0 5 6 4 1.226 OAK A 35 8 6 1 1 0 7 2 .567 2 .491 1989- 8-15 TEX A 39 0 13 1 0 0 2 1 .725 SEA A 25 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 .234 3 .395 1980- 7- 1 LA N 33 1 10 1 0 1 7 2 .849 SD N 31 4 4 0 0 1 4 0 .454 4 .391 1960- 9- 5(1) LA N 41 8 15 4 0 4 4 4 1.178 SF N 40 12 11 2 0 1 6 0 .788 5 .405 1944- 7- 4(2) NY A 38 2 12 1 1 2 1 2 .886 CLE A 34 7 5 2 1 0 3 0 .481 6 .287 1961- 5-22 BAL A 32 2 9 5 0 0 4 2 .789 NY A 30 8 5 0 0 1 3 2 .502 7 .275 1913- 7-12 DET A 35 9 14 1 2 0 16 7 1.131 PHI A 45 16 15 2 1 0 7 0 .856 8 .193 1979- 7-21 BOS A 34 5 13 5 0 1 4 2 1.065 SEA A 41 13 16 3 0 0 1 0 .873 9 .102 1934- 5-22 PHI N 30 4 9 3 1 2 0 2 .967 PIT N 33 13 10 2 0 1 5 0 .865 10 .019 1937- 8-12 CHI N 37 6 12 3 0 1 6 6 .905 PIT N 44 16 15 2 0 1 7 0 .886 11 .146 1951- 8-18 DET A 38 9 12 4 0 5 6 5 1.225 STL A 42 20 18 1 0 1 11 1 1.079
No team in our study has ever lost by a dozen runs or more with a higher OPS than the winning team.
Detroit's OPS in their 1913 loss was aided by sixteen walks, with an AL-record fifteen issued by Boardwalk Brown. His mark was broken by Bruno Hass in 1915 (in his major league debut), and Tommy Byrne in 1951 (although Byrne had "only" eleven walks at the end of nine innings). Brown's performance was not typical for him; his second highest walk total that year was five.
The St. Louis Browns' margin of victory in their 1951 win came courtesy of an 11-run seventh inning. Hank Borowy, coming close to the end of his major league career, entered with two on and one out and proceded to allow five straight hits followed by four consecutive walks (the last three with the bases loaded). All nine of the batters he faced came around to score, making him the only pitcher since at least 1912 to allow as many as nine runs without recording an out. Pitchers over that span have been charged with eight runs without retiring a batter on seven occasions and one pitcher, the Reds Paul Wilson appears twice on that list, having done it in 2003 and 2005, both times as a starter.
Next, I thought we could move away from who won or lost the game and simply look at the teams with the highest and lowest OPS for each number of runs scored. Once I started looking into this, I realized that many of the high OPS/low run scored games ended early while many low OPS/high runs scored games went long into extra-innings. So I restricted my study to games of regulation length and here's part one of the list:
----------------- Highest ----------------- ----------------- Lowest ------------------
RUNS Date Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS Date Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS
0 2005- 8-31 MIN A 33 13 2 0 0 2 .899 1976- 8- 9 LA N 29 0 0 0 0 1 .033 *
1 1922- 7-21 BOS N 31 14 0 0 0 6 .992 2011- 7-27 CLE A 28 0 0 0 0 1 .034
2 1983- 5-25 TOR A 34 10 1 2 2 6 1.018 2000- 5-21 CHI A 28 1 0 0 0 2 .132
3 1929- 5- 6 NY N 31 11 2 0 3 4 1.154 1917- 9-11 BOS A 32 2 0 0 0 2 .180
4 1975- 8-16 KC A 31 12 1 4 1 3 1.203 1990- 7- 1 CHI A 26 0 0 0 0 5 .161
5 2001- 6-19 BAL A 29 11 0 0 5 2 1.334 1949- 6- 6 PHI A 31 3 0 0 0 4 .297
6 1972- 6-11(1) CHI A 32 12 1 0 5 5 1.334 1985- 5-17 NY A 33 3 0 0 0 5 .301
7 2000- 5-17 CLE A 36 16 4 1 4 3 1.432 1914- 6-20 NY N 29 2 1 0 0 4 .285
* - obviously this is incorrect. Any team victimized by a perfect game (or a near-perfecto marred by a error, passed ball or wild pitch) would have an OPS of .000. So instead, the game that appears here is the one in our data closest (but not equal) to zero. In this case, two back-to-back Pittsburgh errors following a walk in the third inning of this 1976 game forced John Candelaria to get two additional outs, lowering the Dodgers' OPS ever so slightly below a group of other near-perfect games.
The games on the "Highest" side of these lists, especially in the lower scoring games are marked by a mixture of solo home runs (18 of the 20 homers hit in the games above came with the bases empty) and often feature some bad base-running. Since regulation games require teams to record either 24 or 27 offensive outs, the fewer hitless at-bats required to do that, the higher a team's OPS can be. In the 1922 Braves game, for example, the team recorded 27 offensive outs in only 17 hitless at-bats. They did this by sacrificing three times, hitting into one double-play, and having six runners thrown out on the bases. One of the headlines in the Boston Globe the next day was "Dumb Base Running Kills Off Braves' Chances".
And the teams on the "Lowest" side are usually given the benefit of some poor defense by their opponents. Of the 28 runs scored in the eight games listed on the right side of the table above, only four were earned. The 1914 Giants only needed two hits and four walks to score seven times in their game because of seven errors committed by the Reds, including four in the five-run/no-hit first inning alone.
In addition to Candelaria's gem, the list above includes Ervin Santana's one-run/one-walk no-hitter in 2011, Andy Hawkins' four-run eight-inning no-hitter in 1990, and Walter Johnson's 1917 game in which he outhit the Red Sox 3-2 all by himself.
And part two:
----------------- Highest ----------------- ----------------- Lowest ------------------
RUNS Date Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS Date Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS
8 2009- 5-20 BOS A 36 15 4 1 5 4 1.475 1935- 9- 8(1) BRO N 38 7 2 0 0 3 .481
9 1927- 4-14 PHI N 34 16 6 0 3 7 1.483 1914- 9-23 NY A 37 9 0 0 0 2 .525
10 1956- 5- 2 CIN N 33 13 2 1 5 4 1.429 1936- 9-17 CIN N 37 8 1 0 0 4 .536
11 1997- 4-25 CLE A 37 14 4 0 8 7 1.612 1925- 5-17 STL A 28 4 2 0 0 8 .566
12 1947- 8-16 PIT N 34 16 2 0 7 8 1.728 2012- 9- 7 CHI N 44 12 2 0 0 4 .652
13 1996- 4-16 DET A 38 18 4 0 5 9 1.548 1915- 9-22 DET A 38 10 0 1 0 11 .744
14 1925- 5- 5 DET A 37 17 8 1 4 10 1.629 1987- 7- 3 CHI A 39 11 2 0 0 7 .716
15 1922- 4-29 NY N 39 20 3 3 4 4 1.609 1945- 6- 6(1) BOS N 45 15 2 1 0 5 .822
16+ 1950- 6- 8 BOS A 53 28 9 1 7 11 1.741 1927- 5- 7 WAS A 34 9 2 0 0 10 .768
The runs scored by the teams on the >15 line were 29 for Boston and 16 for Washington.
The 1927 Phillies game is notable because of the hitting of pitcher Jack Scott who went 4-4 with a double and homer in his first appearance for his new team following an off-season trade. In his previous outing (which closed out his 1926 season with the Giants) Scott had also gone 4-4 with a double and a homer, giving him eight consecutive hits, good for nine RBIs. And in the start before that, he had hit two singles and a triple.
Ty Cobb (1925 Tigers), Ralph Kiner (1947 Pirates) and Matt Williams (1997 Indians) hit three home runs in their games above, but what is most notable is that each of those were part of a record-tying five homers in two consecutive games. And Kiner would do it again less than a month later. By the late 1990s, such a feat was almost commonplace (it occurred eleven times from 1995 to 2004), but Cobb was only the second major league player to do it (and the first, Cap Anson, probably deserves an asterick because he did it at Lake Front Park, a notoriously easy park for home runs during 1884), while Ralph Kiner was both the fourth and fifth.
The 1950 Red Sox outburst was the highest scoring game since the Chicago Colts set a post-National Association record by scoring 36 runs on June 29, 1897, and while Boston's total was tied by the Chicago White Sox on April 23, 1955, it would not be topped until the Texas Rangers scored 30 on August 22, 2007. In Boston's game, Bobby Doerr, Walt Dropo and Ted Williams combined for seven home runs and twenty RBIs, while Johnny Pesky and Al Zarilla's combined ten hits included six doubles.
The most runs scored in a game with a team OPS lower than the .899 posted by Minnesota in that 2005 shutout was 17:
RUNS Date Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS 17 1940- 5- 9 NY N 45 15 2 0 0 10 .861
If we include extra-inning games, two teams scored 18 runs in a game with a lower OPS:
RUNS Date Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS 18 1972- 6- 3 NY A 59 18 2 0 3 10 .897 18 1932- 7-10 PHI A 80 25 4 1 3 7 .868
I added the last mini-table mostly as an excuse to link to that 1932 Athletics' game, one that featured a record nine hits off the bat of Johnny Burnett (whose team lost), Jimmie Foxx's six hits (including three homers and a double), and taught Connie Mack to always take at least three pitchers on a road trip, even if it's only going to last a single game. Eddie Rommel, who, depending upon your point of view, was either the recipient or victim of Mack's lack of foresight, set several records for relief pitching that day while picking up the last win of his major league career.
No team in our study scored twenty or more runs in a game with a team OPS less than 1.000. The closest:
RUNS Date Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS 20 1937- 7-24 STL N 46 18 2 1 1 7 1.015
Okay. I'll stop now.
Maybe it's just the people I hang out with, but I'm hearing more and more of them complain lately about how batters are working the count these days, resulting in a slower and more boring game. So I figured I'd look at how the percentage of pitches put in play has changed over those years for which we have reasonably good pitch information (1988 to 2016). While I was at it, I also figured I'd break the pitch results down into four categories:
1 - pitches resulting in a ball 2 - pitches resulting in a strike 3 - pitches not affecting the count (two-strike foul balls) 4 - pitches put into play
So without further ado, here is the data for each year:
Year Total Ball Pct Strike Pct Foul Pct InPlay Pct 1988 562909 212501 37.75 199711 35.48 30726 5.46 119971 21.31 1989 561432 213845 38.09 198475 35.35 30820 5.49 118292 21.07 1990 533718 204674 38.35 188082 35.24 28998 5.43 111964 20.98 1991 592115 228437 38.58 209883 35.45 32329 5.46 121466 20.51 1992 587147 225224 38.36 207756 35.38 31866 5.43 122301 20.83 1993 617324 238034 38.56 218198 35.35 33458 5.42 127634 20.68 1994 440800 170758 38.74 156753 35.56 24678 5.60 88611 20.10 1995 542120 210168 38.77 193998 35.79 29910 5.52 108044 19.93 1996 590372 227818 38.59 212388 35.98 33339 5.65 116827 19.79 1997 607165 233456 38.45 220216 36.27 34185 5.63 119308 19.65 1998 653760 250151 38.26 237819 36.38 36223 5.54 129567 19.82 1999 698189 271377 38.87 250553 35.89 39179 5.61 137080 19.63 2000 715482 278223 38.89 257179 35.94 40985 5.73 139095 19.44 2001 696611 260461 37.39 257898 37.02 41376 5.94 136876 19.65 2002 697398 262323 37.61 255962 36.70 41884 6.01 137229 19.68 2003 701724 262705 37.44 257653 36.72 42456 6.05 138910 19.80 2004 710094 266805 37.57 261167 36.78 43483 6.12 138639 19.52 2005 696164 257764 37.03 256771 36.88 42985 6.17 138644 19.92 2006 707468 264057 37.32 260948 36.88 43711 6.18 138752 19.61 2007 711984 266107 37.38 263761 37.05 43516 6.11 138600 19.47 2008 714054 267449 37.46 265193 37.14 44674 6.26 136738 19.15 2009 717033 269468 37.58 267476 37.30 44811 6.25 135278 18.87 2010 710391 264440 37.22 267480 37.65 44551 6.27 133920 18.85 2011 707844 260383 36.79 267861 37.84 45415 6.42 134185 18.96 2012 705316 257775 36.55 271217 38.45 44774 6.35 131550 18.65 2013 709933 258666 36.44 272937 38.45 46343 6.53 131987 18.59 2014 704987 254137 36.05 273765 38.83 46270 6.56 130815 18.56 2015 702331 253121 36.04 272685 38.83 46018 6.55 130507 18.58 2016 715861 260905 36.45 278152 38.86 47945 6.70 128859 18.00
So the first year represents the high-water mark (21.31) while the last year, the lowest (18.00). The overall difference might not seem like a lot, but it means that in 2016 there were about 23 more pitches thrown in an average game (295-272) with about five fewer of them (53-58) put into play.
A slight digression: we also have some pitch data in earlier years, most notably for the Brooklyn and Los Angeles Dodgers during the Allan Roth years (1947 to 1964). For what it's worth, here is a similar table for those years.
Year Total Ball Pct Strike Pct Foul Pct InPlay Pct 1947 41289 16798 40.68 13505 32.71 1591 3.85 9395 22.75 1948 41825 16471 39.38 14118 33.75 1823 4.36 9413 22.51 1949 41517 16288 39.23 14029 33.79 1663 4.01 9537 22.97 1950 37910 14809 39.06 12860 33.92 1606 4.24 8635 22.78 1951 36104 14072 38.98 12068 33.43 1627 4.51 8337 23.09 1952 42017 16571 39.44 14427 34.34 1791 4.26 9228 21.96 1953 42343 16758 39.58 14610 34.50 1667 3.94 9308 21.98 1954 42353 16576 39.14 14501 34.24 1786 4.22 9490 22.41 1955 41095 15966 38.85 14297 34.79 1701 4.14 9131 22.22 1956 40189 15394 38.30 14189 35.31 1674 4.17 8932 22.22 1957 41593 15649 37.62 15226 36.61 1731 4.16 8987 21.61 1958 41386 15924 38.48 14803 35.77 1793 4.33 8866 21.42 1959 43004 16592 38.58 15635 36.36 1878 4.37 8899 20.69 1960 42390 16066 37.90 15525 36.62 2087 4.92 8712 20.55 1961 42686 16390 38.40 15503 36.32 2015 4.72 8778 20.56 1962 47930 18392 38.37 17201 35.89 2318 4.84 10019 20.90 1963 64162 23397 36.47 24005 37.41 3008 4.69 13752 21.43 1964 33430 11803 35.31 12566 37.59 1807 5.41 7254 21.70
Given that the Dodgers were an excellent hitting team playing in an unusual ballpark (Ebbets Field) for many of those years, I don't want to make too much of this (perhaps atypical) sample size only to point out that these years don't look much different than the data from the late 1980s, at least until the strike zone expanded in 1963 (and the Dodgers moved into a pitcher-friendly park).
End of digression.
So what about the first pitch? Well, obviously our third category (two-strike fouls) will be empty, but how have the other three changed over time?
Year Total Ball Pct Strike Pct InPlay Pct 1988 157058 67264 42.83 66640 42.43 23154 14.74 1989 155586 67249 43.22 65845 42.32 22492 14.46 1990 147791 64594 43.71 61595 41.68 21602 14.62 1991 161253 71576 44.39 67984 42.16 21693 13.45 1992 161001 70438 43.75 68485 42.54 22078 13.71 1993 169308 73835 43.61 72021 42.54 23452 13.85 1994 119326 52314 43.84 50802 42.57 16210 13.58 1995 146636 63967 43.62 62572 42.67 20097 13.71 1996 159171 68798 43.22 69000 43.35 21373 13.43 1997 163466 70741 43.28 71054 43.47 21671 13.26 1998 176819 76080 43.03 76677 43.36 24062 13.61 1999 187160 82476 44.07 80149 42.82 24535 13.11 2000 190715 83674 43.87 82704 43.37 24337 12.76 2001 187479 77390 41.28 85624 45.67 24465 13.05 2002 187023 78160 41.79 84789 45.34 24074 12.87 2003 187893 77973 41.50 86666 46.13 23254 12.38 2004 188929 78859 41.74 87186 46.15 22884 12.11 2005 186658 76530 41.00 87208 46.72 22920 12.28 2006 188463 77879 41.32 87910 46.65 22674 12.03 2007 188986 78196 41.38 88667 46.92 22123 11.71 2008 187985 78012 41.50 88251 46.95 21722 11.56 2009 187503 78509 41.87 88389 47.14 20605 10.99 2010 185943 76866 41.34 88858 47.79 20219 10.87 2011 185710 75721 40.77 89560 48.23 20429 11.00 2012 184608 74377 40.29 90267 48.90 19964 10.81 2013 185235 73849 39.87 91165 49.22 20221 10.92 2014 184321 72726 39.46 91394 49.58 20201 10.96 2015 184080 72270 39.26 91136 49.51 20674 11.23 2016 184978 73713 39.85 91357 49.39 19908 10.76
This shows an even more dramatic drop in the percentage of balls put in play, which is in line with the general perception that batters are attempting to work the count these days. And this patience has come at a cost, since after seeing roughly the same number of first-pitch balls and strikes up through 2000, batters are now seeing about ten percent more strikes.
Since 1988 and 2016 are not only the end-points in my study, but also the two extremes, I thought it might be interesting to look at the first dozen pitches each batter faced in those years. First, 1988:
Pitch Total Ball Pct Strike Pct Foul Pct InPlay Pct 1 157058 67264 42.83 66640 42.43 0 0.00 23154 14.74 2 133588 52839 39.55 53582 40.11 0 0.00 27167 20.34 3 106083 41072 38.72 37643 35.48 3999 3.77 23369 22.03 4 78509 27395 34.89 24170 30.79 7971 10.15 18973 24.17 5 48303 14169 29.33 11631 24.08 8342 17.27 14161 29.32 6 24195 6153 25.43 3832 15.84 6240 25.79 7970 32.94 7 9612 2309 24.02 1456 15.15 2604 27.09 3243 33.74 8 3561 860 24.15 501 14.07 998 28.03 1202 33.75 9 1311 273 20.82 182 13.88 376 28.68 480 36.61 10 452 107 23.67 48 10.62 133 29.42 164 36.28 11 161 43 26.71 17 10.56 36 22.36 65 40.37 12 47 11 23.40 5 10.64 15 31.91 16 34.04
And 2016:
Pitch Total Ball Pct Strike Pct Foul Pct InPlay Pct +Diff 1 184978 73713 39.85 91357 49.39 0 0.00 19908 10.76 17.8 2 164668 63445 38.53 72897 44.27 0 0.00 28326 17.20 23.3 3 135856 51109 37.62 51736 38.08 6848 5.04 26163 19.26 28.1 4 102336 36484 35.65 33393 32.63 11837 11.57 20622 20.15 30.3 5 67184 20888 31.09 17593 26.19 12386 18.44 16317 24.29 39.1 6 36347 9440 25.97 6840 18.82 9823 27.03 10244 28.18 50.2 7 15081 3759 24.93 2713 17.99 4223 28.00 4386 29.08 56.9 8 5852 1306 22.32 1040 17.77 1737 29.68 1769 30.23 64.3 9 2258 498 22.05 367 16.25 684 30.29 709 31.40 72.2 10 831 161 19.37 146 17.57 252 30.32 272 32.73 83.4 11 291 68 23.37 47 16.15 92 31.62 84 28.87 80.7 12 109 22 20.18 15 13.76 41 37.61 31 28.44 131.9
The last column in the 2016 table is the percentage difference between the number of batters in 2016 and 1988 that saw at least that number of pitches in an at-bat. Since the first row reflects the total number of batters coming to the plate, the 17.8 increase reflects the additional games played in 2016 as well as any changes due to differences between the levels of offense. So while 17.8% more batters came to the plate in 2016, there were 50.2% more batters still around to see the sixth pitch of their at-bat and 131.9% more batters who saw at least a dozen pitches.
One technical note: I was confused at first that the number of batters who saw at least two pitches (164,668 in the 2016 table) did not exactly match the number of batters coming to the plate (184,978, again from 2016) minus the number of batters putting the ball into play (19908). How could a batter see only a single pitch if he didn't put the ball in play? There are two reasons for this: batters who are at the plate when an inning ends due to a baserunner getting thrown out, and batters hit by a pitch, which for the purposes of this study, I treated as a ball not put into play.
Again, focusing on 1988 and 2016, I thought I'd look at how often each count was reached during an at-bat. First, 1988:
Strikes
----- 0 ----- ----- 1 ----- ----- 2 -----
Balls Cnt Pct Cnt Pct Cnt Pct
0 157058 100.00 66606 42.41 24697 15.72
1 66982 42.65 57024 36.31 36891 23.49
2 24362 15.51 31046 19.77 29422 18.73
3 8610 5.48 13175 8.39 16315 10.39
And next, 2016:
Strikes
----- 0 ----- ----- 1 ----- ----- 2 -----
Balls Cnt Pct Cnt Pct Cnt Pct
0 184978 100.00 91316 49.37 37373 20.20
1 73352 39.65 72931 39.43 52729 28.51
2 25552 13.81 37874 20.47 43151 23.33
3 8457 4.57 15718 8.50 24495 13.24
Given the higher strikeout rather today, it's not too surprising that all two-strike counts are more common now than they were in the late 1980s, while all the no-strike counts were more common then. Oh, and the differences between first-pitch balls and strikes in the previous set of tables and 1-0 and 0-1 counts reached here are also caused by at-bats ending after a single ball or strike due to the batter being hit by a pitch or a runner being thrown out on the bases.
One final note: at the 2017 meeting of the Statistical Analysis Committee held in New York, we spent some time talking about how nice it would be if a researcher could easily determine what work had previously been done on a subject. Given the obvious nature of what I've done here, I suspect that I am far from the first to go down this path. My apologies to any researcher whose work I simply echoed. Be assured that this was not in any way a criticism of your work.
A few weeks ago someone, perhaps on SABR-L, remarked on a team scoring a small amount of runs with what seemed like a large number of hits and was wondering if it was a record. (Full disclosure: it might have been the reverse: a large amount of runs with a small number of hits.) That got me to wondering how I might present information showing the end points for every combination of offensive innings and runs scored. I didn't simply look at runs scored because it seemed clear that it's much easier to score a small number of runs with a lot of hits in a very long game, and a large number of runs with hardly any hits in a very short one.
Anyway, here's what I came up with looking at games played from 1907 to 2017:
8 Offensive Innings, 83820 game(s) (83260-432-128)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 64 0 1937- 8-27 CIN 1 8 1952- 8- 3 CHA 3
1 1962 0 2008- 6-28 LAN 1 12 1993- 5-25 NYA 2
2 5466 0 1992- 4-12(1) CLE 1 13 2013- 8-31 LAN 10
3 9014 1 2016- 4- 4 TEX 8 17 1954- 7- 6 PHI 1
4 11292 0 1990- 7- 1 CHA 1 17 1937- 6-22 PIT 1
5 11994 2 2004- 9- 4 SLN 5 17 1959- 8-27 SLN 2
6 10878 1 1909- 8-28(1) CHA 1 18 2003- 7-29 ATL 5
7 9216 2 1914- 6-20 NY1 1 21 1918- 9- 2(2) DET 1
8 7037 2 1994- 4-12 OAK 1 21 1930- 7- 5 DET 1
9 5201 5 2005- 4-24 SEA 6 21 1920- 5- 3 PHI 1
10 3761 4 1996- 4- 9 DET 1 21 1924- 6-15 DET 3
11 2762 4 1925- 5-17 SLA 1 21 2015- 5-12 LAN 6
12 1880 7 1955- 6-12 PHI 5 23 1931- 9- 5(1) PHI 1
13 1247 7 1989- 9- 5 OAK 1 26 1980- 8-28 BAL 1
14 769 8 1908- 7- 1(2) BSN 1 23 1936- 6- 5 PIT 6
15 479 9 1973- 9- 8 NYA 2 24 1996- 7-15 FLO 1
16 311 11 1989- 6-27 BAL 3 25 2006- 5-19 LAN 2
17 202 12 1973- 6- 8 MON 2 26 1936- 9-11 CHA 1
18 110 13 1974- 4-17 CHN 2 26 2015- 8-16 BAL 5
19 56 12 1962- 4-16 SFN 1 27 1928- 9-29 DET 2
20 53 13 1949- 6-12 BRO 1 28 2017- 6-13 MIN 1
21 27 14 1950- 6-18(2) CLE 1 25 2007- 7-22 NYA 6
22 14 17 1931- 7-26(2) NYA 1 27 1924- 9-10(1) NY1 1
23 12 16 1974- 4- 6 KCA 1 27 1953- 6-18 BOS 3
24 4 22 1940- 9-27 BOS 1 27 1928- 7-29 CLE 1
25 2 25 1930- 5-11 CLE 1 28 2003- 6-27 BOS 1
26 5 18 1944- 4-30(1) NY1 1 27 1985- 6-11 PHI 1
27 1 24 1923- 7- 7(1) CLE 1
29 1 28 1950- 6- 8 BOS 1
9 Offensive Innings, 254214 game(s) (85521-168433-260)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 23279 0 2017- 6- 3 ARI 219 14 1928- 7-10(2) CLE 2
1 35250 0 2011- 7-27 CLE 15 16 1910- 9-30 SLA 1
2 39777 0 1967- 4-30(1) DET 2 15 2015- 7-17 TEX 15
3 37652 1 2014- 5-21 OAK 9 16 2015- 9- 2 SLN 9
4 31403 1 2013- 7-20 SEA 2 18 2011- 6-17 BAL 3
5 24807 2 1976- 7- 4(2) CAL 3 19 1965- 5-13 MLN 2
6 18876 3 1985- 5-17 NYA 3 19 1984- 6- 7 MIL 3
7 13776 3 1965- 8- 7 CHN 1 22 1981- 9-20 NYN 1
8 9662 5 2010- 5- 7 ANA 19 22 1996- 7-30 PHI 1
9 6740 4 1918- 7- 6 PHI 1 22 1970- 9-17 SLN 1
10 4588 4 1962- 6-29 NYN 1 23 1930- 6- 3 PHI 2
11 3033 5 1949- 9-30 BOS 1 23 2013- 7- 9 CHA 3
12 1932 7 1987- 8- 1 NYN 2 23 1978- 7- 7 DET 4
13 1235 9 2008- 8-17 CHA 2 24 1977- 5-25(1) MIN 1
14 830 10 2015- 9- 1 PHI 1 25 1923- 6-29 BRO 1
15 540 9 1958- 4-24 CHN 1 27 1931- 9-21 NY1 1
16 334 8 1955- 9- 9(2) BRO 1 26 2013- 9- 6 DET 2
17 179 12 1922- 8-18 NY1 1 27 2005- 5-28 BOS 2
18 119 13 1971- 6-20 CHA 1 26 2010- 8- 2 MIL 4
19 97 15 1947- 7- 3 NY1 1 28 1978- 7-30 MON 3
20 36 16 1959- 4-22 CHA 1 26 1980- 6-20 CAL 1
21 27 19 2015-10- 2 HOU 5 27 1908- 7-17 DET 1
22 18 15 1994- 4-12 BOS 1 31 1992- 8-28 MIL 1
23 8 18 1977- 4-25 CIN 1 28 1931- 7-11(1) NY1 1
24 9 19 1996- 4-24 MIN 1 30 1925- 9- 2(2) NY1 2
25 1 19 1936- 5-24 NYA 1
26 3 26 2004- 9- 9(1) KCA 1 29 1948- 8-12(2) CLE 1
28 1 28 1929- 7- 6(2) SLN 1
29 1 29 1955- 4-23 CHA 1
30 1 29 2007- 8-22(1) TEX 1
Hopefully the meaning of each line is clear. For each entry above, I have linked to the last game in which it occurred. So looking at the nine-innings/no-runs line, it shows that there were 23,279 nine-inning shutouts and on 219 occasions the team being shutout went hitless, the last being the Diamondbacks on June 3, 2017 (when the Marlins' Edinson Volquez tossed a no-hitter). And twice teams collected fourteen hits without a score (the two pitchers who held those teams scoreless were Larry Cheney in 1913 and Milt Gaston in 1928). Oh, and if a particular innings/runs scored combination was unique (like the nine-innings/25 runs one above, the game in which Tony Lazzeri hit two grand-slams and knocked in eleven runs), I only displayed the "Least" side, since the "Most" side would be the same.
In each "Offensive Innings" header line I also included the number of times it occurred as well as the cumulative record of the teams having that many offensive innings. I did that because of something that might seem obvious to everyone else: teams generally win when they only come to bat in eight innings. I was initially surprised that there were only four eight-inning no-hitters and, by clicking on the associated game links, noticed that only one of those resulted in a victory for the pitcher holding the other team hitless: Fred Frankhouse who held the Reds without a safety until the game was rained out with two outs in the top of the eighth inning. The three losing efforts were Jered Weaver's 1-0 loss to the Dodgers in 2008, Matt Young's 2-1 loss to the Indians in 1992, and Andy Hawkins' famous 4-0 loss to the White Sox in 1990.
But of course almost every team that bats in only eight innings comes away with a victory. The only way a team can lose such a game is if it is stopped prior to the bottom of the ninth. For similar reasons, teams batting in nine innings win only roughly a third of their games (33.6%). And for a reason that also ought to be obvious, we'll see below that the winning percentage of all teams that have ten or more offensive innings is .500 (since a home team can not be leading heading into the bottom of an extra inning).
In addition to Hawkins' lost no-hitter, the lists above references several other well-known (or at least interesting) games. For example, the 1909 Senators' Dolly Gray lost a 6-4 one-hitter to the White Sox. All of Chicago's runs were scored in the second inning when Gray walked seven straight batters, the last six with the bases loaded. The eight walks he allowed overall in that inning are a record. I'm not sure if Washington manager Joe Cantillon fell asleep on the bench during that record-setting half-inning or if he simply had a lot of confidence in Gray's ability to work through his difficulties, regardless of the mounting evidence to the contrary.
And while errors played no part in the White Sox scoring six runs on a single hit above, they were the principle culprit when the 1925 Browns were able to rack up eleven runs on only four hits in their 11-6 win over the Red Sox in May, 1925. Six errors led to ten unearned runs, but Buster Ross' eight walks certainly didn't help matters. Errors also were responsible for the Reds' Phil Douglas' odd pitching line on June 20, 1914, when he left after a hitless first inning down 5-0. While his two walks both came round to score, four errors on the part of his teammates were mostly to blame for his early departure. The Giants ended up with only two hits in their eventual win.
The A's got their only two hits of the game with no one out in the bottom of the first, the last a Ruben Sierra homer that gave them a 3-1 lead in their win on April 12, 1994, over the Bluejays. While Oakland would go hitless over their last 24 outs, walks and errors added another five runs to their total. Rickey Henderson had an eventful day, walking four times, stealing two bases, and while he was picked off once and caught stealing twice, errors negated two of those, allowing him to turn his four walks into three runs scored.
The San Francisco Giants managed to turn twelve hits into nineteen runs on April 16,1962, allowing Billy O'Dell to win the game, despite allowing a career high fifteen hits to the Dodgers. Willard Hunter had an inauspicious debut in the game, allowing ten runs in the two innings he pitched. It would be his only game for Los Angeles, as he would head to the expansion Mets a month later. It was the first time a pitcher had allowed ten or more runs in a debut since Bob Adams in 1931, and the closest a pitcher has come to allowing ten or more runs in a debut lasting only two innings from 1907 to 2017 has been Doug Davis in 1999.
Other games above include a rout by the 1931 Yankees where they scored 22 runs in the first four innings with only a single extra-base hit (a double by pitcher Red Ruffing), a 1949 Dodgers slugfest featuring a combined four homers and fourteen RBIs by Gil Hodges and Billy Cox, and an even more impressive offensive explosion by the 1950 Red Sox in which Bobby Doerr, Walt Dropo, and Ted Williams, combined for seven home runs and twenty RBIs. And ten days after that Red Sox game, the Indians scored fourteen first-inning runs on only six hits on their way to a 21-2 victory over Lou Brissie and the Athletics.
And those games are just a sample from the left-hand side of the eight-inning chart above. In general, the unique entries are going to be more interesting. While no-hitters are a thrill to see in person (thanks SABR!) or watch on TV, I would argue that the one game in the last 111 years in which a team scored a single run despite their sixteen hits is far more interesting than the fifteen one-run no-hit games. For much the same reason, games at the top of these charts (where the number of runs scored is relatively modest) are more distinctive than the high-scoring games simply because far more teams score, for example, two runs in game than twenty and that these vast number of games afford more of an opportunity for outliers to pop up.
I started with eight and nine innings because those are the number of offensive innings in a regulation game. But what about the shorter games? Here are those tables:
3 Offensive Innings, 1 game(s) (0-1-0)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
1 1 3 1913- 7- 6(2) CHN 1
4 Offensive Innings, 37 game(s) (34-1-2)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 1 2 1907-10- 5(1) SLN 1
1 5 1 1971- 7-30 BAL 1 5 1937- 9-29(2) CHA 1
2 8 3 1918- 7-19 PHA 2 8 1942- 8- 9(2) CIN 1
3 2 3 1912- 9-17(2) CLE 1 4 1914- 9- 7(2) DET 1
4 11 2 1939- 9-24(2) CHA 2 8 1923-10- 6(2) BSN 1
5 2 8 1913- 7- 6(2) SLN 1 9 1923- 9- 6 PIT 1
6 6 5 1908- 9-27(2) CIN 1 9 2006- 4-16 CHA 2
7 1 9 1911- 6-22 NYA 1
9 1 10 1999-10- 3 SLN 1
5 Offensive Innings, 675 game(s) (293-289-93)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 127 0 2006-10- 1 BAL 8 7 1990- 9- 6 DET 2
1 145 0 1907- 5-26 NYA 1 8 1939- 9- 8(2) PHI 1
2 102 2 2007- 6-27 NYN 6 8 1953- 7-19(2) MLN 4
3 87 1 1949-10- 2(2) CHA 1 10 1948- 5- 4 WS1 2
4 68 2 1938-10- 1(2) SLA 1 9 1998- 6-18 MIN 6
5 57 2 1971- 4- 9 OAK 1 11 1958- 8-20(2) CHN 2
6 28 5 1990- 9- 6 CLE 3 11 1945- 7-15 BOS 2
7 24 5 1924- 6- 8 NY1 1 12 1915- 8-28 BUF 1
8 13 6 1983- 6- 6 BAL 1 12 1947- 9-11(2) BOS 2
9 12 6 1976- 5-23 TEX 1 13 1939- 9-24(2) DET 1
10 2 9 1935- 8- 5 NYA 1 12 1929- 9- 9(2) NY1 1
11 4 12 1938- 9- 7 BOS 2 14 1966- 8-13 CIN 1
12 1 13 1983- 9-24 KCA 1
14 3 12 1963- 5- 4 KC1 1 15 1983- 9-20 DET 2
15 1 14 1934- 8- 9 BOS 1
16 1 17 1951- 7- 4(2) PIT 1
6 Offensive Innings, 884 game(s) (424-372-88)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 117 0 1990- 7-12 NYA 4 7 2011- 5-14 CHN 3
1 152 1 1968- 7-25 WS2 4 8 2016- 7-21 CHA 6
2 131 2 2005- 4-30 FLO 4 10 2008- 9-27 BAL 2
3 105 2 1962- 6-20(2) MLN 2 11 1909- 7-19(2) NY1 1
4 117 3 1956- 7-16 BRO 3 12 1990- 4-20 CHN 1
5 61 3 1911- 8-18 BSN 1 12 2005- 7- 3 ANA 2
6 60 5 2010-10- 2 CHA 4 16 1943- 8-24 BRO 1
7 44 3 1943- 5- 9(2) SLA 1 15 2006- 6- 2 SDN 1
8 26 7 1952- 8- 3(2) NY1 2 14 1936- 9-23(2) CHA 1
9 23 5 1938- 5-28 DET 1 16 1972- 8- 1 MIL 1
10 14 8 1931- 9-20(2) NYA 1 17 1972- 8- 2 SLN 1
11 12 7 1914-10- 4(2) PIT 1 17 1912- 6-30(2) DET 1
12 13 9 1911- 9-20(2) CIN 1 16 1957- 6-22 CHN 1
13 4 11 1914- 9-28(2) NY1 1 17 1930- 9-25 PHA 1
15 2 15 1952- 8-16 BRO 2
18 1 21 1912- 4-11 NY1 1
19 2 15 1940- 8-13(2) NYA 1 17 1936- 8-28(2) NYA 1
7 Offensive Innings, 1076 game(s) (485-489-102)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 109 0 1959- 9-26 SLN 4 8 1959- 6-24 SLN 2
1 151 1 2010- 7-23 TBA 5 11 2009- 8-29 PHI 2
2 155 2 2013- 4-19 SLN 2 10 1930- 8-17(2) CLE 3
3 142 2 1994- 7- 5 PIT 1 13 1910- 9- 4(2) CIN 1
4 117 3 1959- 8-15 CHN 3 14 1934- 9-30(2) PHI 1
5 105 4 1912- 9-28(2) SLA 1 13 1945- 9-10 PHI 2
6 81 2 1910- 9-23 SLN 1 13 1907- 7- 6(2) BRO 1
7 64 5 1914- 9-20(2) BOS 1 15 1950- 7- 5 BOS 2
8 47 7 1949- 9-10(2) NYA 4 16 1912- 9-19(2) PIT 1
9 23 7 1915- 4-26 BOS 1 14 1997- 6- 3 SFN 2
10 25 8 1945- 6-10 BRO 2 21 1933- 9-10(2) SLN 1
11 16 10 1979- 6- 8 LAN 2 18 1947- 6-27 DET 1
12 7 9 1999- 4- 9 NYA 2 17 1993- 7-18 CHN 2
13 15 8 1913- 7- 4(1) BOS 1 20 1925- 7-10(2) SLA 1
14 7 13 1956- 5-13(2) SLN 2 18 1944- 5-21(2) CHN 1
15 6 15 1911- 8-17(2) NY1 1 19 1924- 9- 5(2) NY1 1
16 2 16 1947- 8-24(2) NYA 2
17 3 15 1947- 7-11(2) NY1 2 18 1954- 7- 7 NYA 1
20 1 16 1912- 4-16 SLN 1
The first chart on the list contains a single oddity: a game stopped in the top of the fourth inning and forfeited to the Cardinals. The two teams had agreed to stop the game at five PM so the visitors could catch a train, but when St. Louis jumped out to an early lead, Johnny Evers, the manager of the home Chicago Cubs, decided to stall so the prerequisite five innings couldn't be completed. Eventually, the umpires had enough and declared St. Louis victors. One odd thing about the game was that the home fans seemed as upset over Evers' conduct as the umpires, storming the field and hurling insults at him as he left the field. It wasn't the only time that the statistics were counted for a game shorter than five innings, but it was the last.
The four-inning chart reflects the fact that, like the eight-inning chart above, teams almost always win games in which they only bat in four innings. The sole exception is another Deadball Era forfeit involving the Cubs and the Cardinals that was given to St. Louis before the fifth inning. Once again, Johnny Evers was in the middle of the action, getting thrown out protesting a call in the top of the fourth. After the first batter in the bottom half beat out an infield hit, Frank Chance, Joe Tinker, and Harry Steinfeldt were all ejected and, after manager Chance failed to provide substitute players quickly enough to suit umpire Cy Rigler, St. Louis was declared the victor, despite being on the short end of a 2-0 score.
One of the four-inning wins was a curious game noticed by Bill James in one of his Baseball Abstracts. He pointed out that the theoretical minimum number of batters a pitcher could pitch in a complete game (absent, of course, a forfeited game like the ones mentioned above) was thirteen, and that such a game had actually happened in 1971, when Dick Drago of the Kansas City Royals retired twelve of the thirteen batters to face him, the only exception to his near-perfect (albeit rain-shortened) perfect game being a home run hit by Frank Robinson, which proved to be the difference in a 1-0 loss to Jim Palmer and the Baltimore Orioles.
A brief digression here: Drago and Palmer both finished that game with identical 12-6 records. And that got me to wondering what two starting pitchers had matching records (with the most decisions) both before and after a game. Without further ado, the lists (from 1907-2017):
Same Record Before The Game Same Record After The Game Cnt W- L Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Date Teams Cnt W- L Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Date Teams 32 17-15 Bullet Joe Bush Eddie Rommel 1924- 9-27 NYA PHA 34 23-11 Catfish Hunter Fergie Jenkins 1974- 9-13 OAK TEX 29 16-13 Lew Moren Art Fromme 1909- 9-22 PHI CIN 32 21-11 Babe Ruth Harry Coveleski 1916- 9-21 BOS DET 29 12-17 Dutch Leonard Russ Ford 1913- 9-30(1) BOS NYA 32 17-15 Willis Hudlin General Crowder 1929-10- 3 CLE SLA 29 18-11 Bill Doak Fred Toney 1920- 9-13 SLN NY1 30 16-14 Nolan Ryan Fergie Jenkins 1979- 9-28 CAL TEX 29 14-15 Jon Matlack Rick Reuschel 1973- 9-30(1) NYN CHN 29 16-13 Lew Moren Art Fromme 1909- 9-22 PHI CIN 28 15-13 Jesse Barnes Jimmy Ring 1920- 8-29 NY1 CIN 29 16-13 Chief Johnson Doc Crandall 1915- 8-29(2) KCF SLF 27 12-15 Jack Powell Casey Patten 1907- 9-26 SLA WS1 29 13-16 Dutch Leonard Johnny Rigney 1940- 9-11 WS1 CHA 27 12-15 Gary Bell Ken McBride 1961- 9-30 CLE LAA 29 19-10 Don Newcombe Robin Roberts 1950- 9-23 BRO PHI 27 16-11 Jim O'Toole Bob Friend 1963- 8-31 CIN PIT 28 14-14 Harry Howell Bob Rhoads 1907- 9-19 SLA CLE 27 14-13 Mel Stottlemyre Jim Kaat 1967- 9-22 NYA MIN 28 14-14 Nick Cullop Ed Lafitte 1914- 9-19(1) KCF BRF
Two things before we wrap up this digression and get back to the matter at hand. You'll notice that the Moren/Fromme game shows up on both the Before and After lists. That's because their matchup ended after fourteen innings in a 2-2 tie (neither Moren or Fromme was in the game at the end). And you might be confused by the Cullop/Lafitte game since the box score shows Cullop with a 14-13 record following his loss that day, not the 14-14 record shown on the chart. That's because, while he did have a 14-13 in the Federal League that year, he dropped an earlier decision while pitching for the Indians that April.
A few more notes about the shortened games: the 1959 Cardinals tied for both the fewest and the most hits in a seven-inning shutout, getting no-hit by Sam Jones that September, and collecting eight hits without a run at the hands of Joey Jay in June. And two different teams set marks for the most hits in nine and ten run six-inning games on back-to-back days in 1972.
On to the longer games:
10 Offensive Innings, 15399 game(s) (7602-7602-195)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 311 0 1997- 7-12 HOU 4 13 1937- 4-20 CIN 1
1 1189 1 2017- 8-23 PIT 4 14 1988- 5-12 SDN 1
2 2135 1 1934- 9-18 BOS 1 15 1972- 9-19 SLN 1
3 2707 2 2016- 4- 8 SFN 9 16 2010- 7- 1 CIN 4
4 2559 2 1920- 9- 6(2) DET 1 18 1963- 6-25 PIT 1
5 2141 4 2017- 6-16 SDN 7 19 1958- 6- 8(1) CHA 1
6 1608 5 1999- 9-17 ATL 9 19 1917- 6-13 CHA 1
7 1046 5 2007- 9-25 TBA 3 19 1990- 4-21 PHI 1
8 732 5 1999- 8-20 LAN 2 21 2007- 9-20 FLO 1
9 439 7 1996- 9- 2 BOS 2 22 1921- 6-12 CHN 1
10 237 8 1985- 8-21 CAL 1 21 2006- 9-25 SEA 2
11 131 10 1999- 7-25 OAK 4 23 1930- 5- 3 BRO 1
12 78 9 1970- 6-23 NYN 2 22 1943- 9- 1 CHN 1
13 43 12 1925- 4-18 BSN 1 21 1933- 9-16 BRO 1
14 26 13 2003- 4-17 ATL 1 25 1922- 6-21 PIT 1
15 9 14 1938- 7-13 NYA 1 23 1956- 7- 1(1) SLN 1
16 3 16 2004- 5- 8 TEX 1 19 1976- 4-17 CHN 1
18 2 22 1937- 7-16(2) SLN 1 24 1976- 4-17 PHI 1
19 1 20 1956- 7- 1(1) CIN 1
22 1 26 1979- 5-17 CHN 1
23 1 24 1979- 5-17 PHI 1
11 Offensive Innings, 8674 game(s) (4270-4270-134)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 195 1 2010- 7-22 SLN 1 11 1972- 6-16 PHI 1
1 687 2 1995- 7-26(1) PIT 8 15 1974- 4-14(1) NYN 1
2 1183 2 2011- 5-24 SDN 3 15 1986- 6-23 SLN 1
3 1454 2 1958- 5-20 MLN 2 17 1917- 8-11 BRO 1
4 1463 4 2011- 5-11 KCA 4 18 1980- 7-18 HOU 2
5 1238 4 2012- 4- 7 SDN 4 18 2007- 6-22 ANA 3
6 892 5 1979- 7-20 LAN 3 21 1992- 9- 7 CHN 1
7 599 5 1954- 5- 6 BRO 1 19 2014- 4- 5 MIL 4
8 423 6 1965- 5- 8 SLN 1 21 1912- 7-18(1) CHN 1
9 237 8 2007- 4-29 COL 2 23 1978- 7- 8 MIN 2
10 142 9 1946- 6-23 NYA 1 24 1989- 9-29 MIN 1
11 84 10 1955- 7- 8 DET 2 22 1983- 5-14 TEX 1
12 43 9 1993- 4-18 ATL 1 24 1948- 7-18(1) CHA 1
13 17 13 1991- 4-21 PIT 2 22 1947- 8-20 DET 1
14 9 16 1954- 5- 4 PHI 1 22 1935- 7-22 BRO 1
15 6 17 2006- 7-14 ATL 1 24 1990- 5-19 PHI 1
16 2 15 2002- 9- 8 SEA 1 17 1935- 6-14 WS1 1
12 Offensive Innings, 4829 game(s) (2367-2367-95)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 117 2 2015- 8- 4 ANA 5 12 1907- 7-19 CLE 1
1 408 1 1962- 5-22 LAA 1 16 1910- 4-28 BOS 1
2 603 3 1979- 8-14 BAL 3 16 1910- 7-18 PHI 1
3 792 3 1990- 4-25 BAL 3 17 1937- 8- 3 WS1 1
4 788 3 2009- 8-11 PHI 1 17 2004- 6-26 CLE 2
5 670 4 1988- 8-12 MON 1 19 1991-10- 5 NYA 2
6 549 3 1982- 4-16 CHN 1 19 1943- 8-21 DET 2
7 372 6 1996- 5-10 MIL 1 20 1968- 7-23 CIN 1
8 222 7 1985- 9- 9 SEA 1 23 1942- 9-27(1) PIT 1
9 131 7 1981- 9-12 CLE 1 22 2007- 6-10 MIL 1
10 87 9 2005- 8-29 OAK 1 22 1976- 8-21 BAL 2
11 45 10 1960- 8-17 WS1 1 27 1933- 5-16 WS1 1
12 28 10 1965- 7-14 CHA 1 23 1926- 6- 2(2) BSN 1
13 7 9 1920- 9-17 BOS 1 24 1991-10- 3(2) CHA 1
14 4 19 1955- 8-20 NY1 1 21 1949- 5- 8(1) CIN 1
15 3 19 2004- 5-11 PIT 2 22 1953- 7-25 NYA 1
16 2 21 1923- 5-14 NYA 1 22 1998- 9-14 DET 1
17 1 19 1998- 9-14 CHA 1
13 Offensive Innings, 2714 game(s) (1324-1324-66)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 84 3 2015- 9-13 TBA 5 12 1989- 8-30 SLN 3
1 234 1 1959- 5-26 MLN 1 16 1945- 7-22(1) NY1 1
2 382 3 2017- 5-23 LAN 3 15 1973- 9-25 NYA 4
3 460 4 1995- 5-17 PHI 2 17 2000- 7- 5 KCA 3
4 437 4 1965- 4-18 DET 1 21 2003- 9- 5 BAL 1
5 349 6 1961- 6- 3 NYA 4 21 1916- 8- 2 BRO 1
6 286 6 2009- 7- 5 SDN 1 21 1950- 5- 3 SLN 1
7 178 7 1983- 5- 6 NYN 2 22 1920- 9-18(1) SLN 1
8 114 8 2008- 4-26 SDN 3 21 1935- 6-14(2) SLN 1
9 79 7 1952- 8-13(2) WS1 1 22 1987- 8-11 PHI 1
10 47 9 2010- 7-20 TBA 1 21 1913- 5- 4 SLN 1
11 28 12 1967- 8-15 BAL 1 21 2010- 9-25 DET 3
12 17 13 1969- 4-25 SFN 1 22 1962- 7- 8(2) CIN 1
13 4 15 2004- 5-15 SEA 1 20 2017- 5-16 BAL 1
14 5 13 1966- 8-12 PIT 1 22 2008- 7-30 DET 1
15 6 17 2003- 4- 8 SLN 1 27 1930- 7-23(2) PHI 1
16 2 23 1930- 7-23(2) PIT 1 24 1977- 7-28 CHN 1
17 1 23 2009- 8-16 ANA 1
18 1 18 1972- 6- 3 NYA 1
14 Offensive Innings, 1589 game(s) (757-757-75)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 39 2 1972- 7- 6 NYN 2 13 1991- 8- 8 TOR 1
1 135 4 2013- 9-29 HOU 9 16 1921- 7-21 PHA 1
2 229 3 1989- 8-24 HOU 2 16 1978- 9-21 CHN 1
3 267 4 1929- 6-22(2) PHA 1 18 1995- 8-30 TOR 1
4 241 4 1960- 5-28 CHN 1 19 2006- 6- 2 SLN 2
5 219 7 1981- 5-10 ATL 8 21 1970- 7-11 HOU 1
6 166 6 2014- 4-16 BOS 1 22 1963- 7-21(2) PIT 1
7 120 6 2015- 9-14 OAK 1 21 1975- 6-21 CIN 1
8 74 8 1962- 5-30 HOU 1 22 2011- 8-16 CHA 1
9 42 9 1987- 9-20 PIT 1 26 1956- 7-27 KC1 1
10 23 12 1978-10- 1 CIN 2 25 1976- 7- 2(1) HOU 1
11 9 11 2006- 9-30 COL 1 22 2007- 8- 2 ATL 1
12 13 11 2007- 8- 2 HOU 1 24 1924- 6-28 CHA 1
13 7 17 1932- 9- 9(1) NYA 1 23 1937- 7- 5(1) CHN 1
14 1 16 1932- 9- 9(1) DET 1
15 3 13 1991- 5-27 DET 1 24 1929- 6-15 PIT 1
20 1 28 1929- 6-15 NY1 1
I initially thought I'd stop at this point, because the number of these games starts to drop off after fourteen innings, telling us less about the number of hits each team got and more about how rare really long games are. But then I figured I'd just take a break and talk about the ten to fourteen inning charts before continuing, since there's something to be said for obsessively beating a subject into the dirt.
One thing that struck me as odd was that while there were four ten-inning no-hitters, there weren't any ones longer than that. Those four were thrown by Hooks Wiltse in 1908, Fred Toney in 1917, Jim Maloney in 1965, and a combined effort by the Pirates' Francisco Cordova and Ricardo Rincon in 1997. Fred Toney's opponent in his game, Hippo Vaughn, didn't allow a hit until the tenth inning, when singles by Larry Kopf and Jim Thorpe brought in the game's only run. And only a hit batter prevented Wiltse's gem from being an extra-inning perfect game, while Maloney's effort featured ten walks (to go with twelve strikeouts).
I also thought it odd that, while there have been two fourteen-hit nine-inning shutouts, there were no shutouts with more hits in the extra-inning charts above. It seemed to me that the longer a game goes on, the easier it is to produce a large number of hits without scoring a run (since the hits can be spread among a greater number of innings), but then I realized that this was due to the huge disparity in sample sizes. While between 1907 and 2017 there were 23,279 nine-inning shutouts, there were only 746 extra-inning shutouts between ten and fourteen innings, and so there were many fewer opportunites for unusual games to occur.
The longest one-hitter was a famous one, the Pirates' Harvey Haddix's thirteen-inning loss to the Braves in 1959. The longest two-hitter lasted fourteen innings, done twice, by the Indians' Al Milnar in 1942, and by Steve Arlin and Gary Ross of the Padres in 1972.
As threatened earlier, here are the results for those games fifteen innings or longer:
15 Offensive Innings, 776 game(s) (367-367-42)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 25 3 1963- 4-13 CHA 1 15 1913- 7- 3 BOS 1
1 60 3 2003- 7-25 LAN 1 14 1963- 8-25(2) BOS 2
2 97 4 1993- 8-10 CHN 1 16 1980- 8- 7 MIN 2
3 126 4 1975- 5-14 MIL 1 19 1968- 9-27 SFN 1
4 148 6 2002- 9-23 BAL 6 18 2007- 7-18 ATL 4
5 103 6 2014- 5-24 BOS 2 21 1974- 4-26 OAK 1
6 72 9 1970- 5-17(2) ATL 4 19 1981- 5-22 SFN 3
7 58 9 2016- 6-28 CHN 4 21 2013- 9-19 COL 4
8 35 10 1911- 5-10 CIN 1 21 1979- 8-31 SLN 1
9 24 8 2004- 4-22 MIL 1 21 1991- 7-17 KCA 2
10 10 10 1928- 9-28 SLN 1 21 1980- 5-24 SFN 2
11 8 15 1967- 4-29 BOS 1 21 1962- 7-13 BOS 1
12 3 11 1925- 7-19 PHA 1 21 1979- 7- 1 TEX 1
13 4 16 1923- 8- 9 SLN 1 29 1979- 7- 1 OAK 1
16 2 21 1983- 7- 3 TEX 1 23 1970- 5-23 SFN 1
17 1 21 1970- 5-23 SDN 1
16 Offensive Innings, 474 game(s) (221-221-32)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 17 3 2011- 7-17 TBA 3 13 1916- 6-13 CIN 1
1 40 4 1968- 5-17 NYN 1 15 1914-10- 9(1) BUF 1
2 69 5 1988- 9-28 SDN 1 19 1924- 7- 8(2) CIN 1
3 75 5 1910- 6-15 PHI 1 19 1944- 9-24(1) PHI 1
4 86 6 2010- 9- 8 ANA 2 20 1964- 9-19 LAN 1
5 67 6 1912- 7- 5 NYA 1 22 1995- 7-29 KCA 1
6 41 7 1999- 8-20 HOU 2 18 1996- 6-15 BAL 2
7 26 10 2012- 4- 5 TOR 1 21 1999- 4-13 ARI 2
8 29 10 1914- 6-12 SLN 1 19 2003- 4- 1 TBA 2
9 16 10 1984- 5- 2 CLE 1 26 1972- 8-27(2) NYA 1
10 3 17 2013- 4- 3 ARI 2 19 1921- 7- 9 CHA 1
11 4 15 1957- 5-15 CLE 1 22 1939- 9-20 SLA 1
13 1 17 1920- 5-20 CHA 1
17 Offensive Innings, 228 game(s) (106-106-16)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 11 4 2004- 6- 8 ANA 1 14 1916- 7-14 BOS 1
1 23 5 1908- 6- 4 CHN 1 15 1971- 8- 5 NYN 1
2 26 7 1968- 5- 2 LAN 1 18 1973- 5-15 MIL 1
3 41 7 1970- 6-19 CHN 2 20 1929- 8-14 CLE 1
4 34 9 2013- 5-31 SDN 2 18 1976- 4-19 NYN 1
5 33 9 2016- 5-22 SDN 1 22 1934- 5-12(1) WS1 1
6 22 9 1986- 4-19 MON 1 22 1980-10- 4(1) BOS 1
7 18 11 1978- 8- 2 BOS 2 19 1975- 6- 8(2) TEX 2
8 6 15 1913- 5-28 CHN 1 19 1998- 7-30 SEA 1
9 10 14 2003- 6- 1 DET 1 22 1980- 8-21 PHI 1
10 3 14 2003- 6- 1 NYA 1 26 1995- 5- 7 CLE 1
12 1 19 1941- 7-20 NYA 1
18 Offensive Innings, 138 game(s) (64-64-10)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 9 6 1972- 6- 7(2) SDN 5 10 1918- 5-15 CHA 1
1 15 7 1970- 4-22 NYA 3 13 2015- 7-19 SLN 2
2 16 9 2005- 7-28 TOR 3 15 1979- 6-18 NYN 1
3 22 7 1982- 6- 9(2) CLE 2 16 2015- 7-19 NYN 3
4 17 8 1985- 6-11 ATL 1 22 1914- 7-29 BRF 1
5 11 6 1985- 4-28 NYN 1 17 1985- 6-11 SFN 1
6 9 9 2009- 6- 7 SDN 1 20 1967- 4-16 BOS 1
7 11 10 1974- 6-28(1) MON 1 20 1969- 7-19 SE1 1
8 12 13 2001- 8-25 TEX 2 22 1922- 7- 7 PIT 1
9 7 17 1969- 8-24(2) OAK 1 23 2004- 6-24 TEX 1
10 2 19 1942- 8- 9(1) CHN 1 23 1919- 6- 1 PHI 1
11 2 16 1969- 7-19 MIN 1 21 1927- 9- 5(1) NYA 1
12 3 18 2008- 5-25 SDN 1 22 2013- 8-24 ARI 1
17 1 33 1932- 7-10 CLE 1
18 1 25 1932- 7-10 PHA 1
19 Offensive Innings, 82 game(s) (37-37-8)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 2 8 1946- 9-11 BRO 1 10 1946- 9-11 CIN 1
1 3 9 1972- 8- 8 LAN 1 12 1920- 5- 3 BRO 1
2 7 8 1972- 8- 8 CIN 1 15 2016- 7- 1 CLE 2
3 15 10 1972- 8-10 CHA 2 19 1973- 5-24 LAN 1
4 13 6 2014- 8- 9 BOS 1 24 1912- 9-27 PHA 1
5 15 11 2006- 7- 9 BOS 1 22 2014- 8-10 DET 1
6 8 12 1912- 7-31 BSN 1 21 1967- 6-17(2) KC1 1
7 6 13 1988- 5-14 ATL 1 22 1973- 5-24 NYN 1
8 6 11 1984- 4-27 CLE 1 23 1950- 9-15(2) PHI 2
9 3 10 1939- 5-17 CHN 1 19 1991- 5- 1 CHA 1
10 2 15 2013- 4-29 OAK 1 18 1991- 5- 1 MIL 1
13 1 18 1985- 7- 4 ATL 1
16 1 28 1985- 7- 4 NYN 1
20 Offensive Innings, 34 game(s) (16-16-2)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 1 11 1971- 7- 9 CAL 1
1 4 7 1971- 7- 9 OAK 1 17 1980- 8-15 SDN 1
2 3 9 2010- 4-17 NYN 1 15 2013- 6- 8 MIA 1
3 4 12 1967- 8-29(2) BOS 1 15 1982- 4-13 SEA 1
4 4 15 1982- 4-13 CAL 1 17 1980- 7- 6 CHN 3
5 3 9 1973- 5- 4 PHI 1 15 1969- 7-27 BOS 1
6 4 12 1940- 7- 5 BRO 1 17 1993- 7- 7 LAN 1
7 5 12 1993- 7- 7 PHI 1 23 1981- 9- 3 BOS 1
8 3 14 1971- 9-14(2) WS2 1 24 1981- 9- 3 SEA 1
9 3 14 1967- 8- 9 WS2 1 24 1919- 4-30 BRO 1
21 Offensive Innings, 20 game(s) (10-10-0)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 2 12 1967- 9- 1 CIN 1 15 1918- 8- 1 BSN 1
1 5 13 1971- 9-24(1) SDN 2 16 1982- 8-17 CHN 1
2 4 11 1971- 9-24(1) HOU 1 19 1918- 7-17 CHN 1
3 3 12 1914- 7-17 NY1 1 16 1971- 6- 4 WS2 1
5 2 16 1971- 6- 4 OAK 1 18 1929- 5-24 CHA 1
6 2 17 1973- 5-26 CHA 1 24 1929- 5-24 DET 1
8 1 25 1977- 5-21 MON 1
11 1 13 1977- 5-21 SDN 1
22 Offensive Innings, 18 game(s) (9-9-0)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 1 13 1989- 8-23 MON 1
1 2 11 2008- 4-17 SDN 1 20 1989- 8-23 LAN 1
2 1 14 2008- 4-17 COL 1
3 2 15 1927- 5-17 BSN 1 17 1972- 5-12 MIN 1
4 4 13 1972- 5-12 MIL 1 20 1927- 5-17 CHN 1
5 4 15 1967- 6-12 CHA 1 19 1917- 8-22 PIT 1
6 2 13 1967- 6-12 WS2 1 28 1917- 8-22 BRO 1
7 1 19 1962- 6-24 DET 1
9 1 20 1962- 6-24 NYA 1
23 Offensive Innings, 4 game(s) (1-1-2)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
2 2 16 1939- 6-27 BRO 1 17 1939- 6-27 BSN 1
6 1 20 1964- 5-31(2) NYN 1
8 1 17 1964- 5-31(2) SFN 1
24 Offensive Innings, 4 game(s) (1-1-2)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
0 1 11 1968- 4-15 NYN 1
1 3 11 1968- 4-15 HOU 2 16 1945- 7-21 PHA 1
25 Offensive Innings, 4 game(s) (2-2-0)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
3 1 16 1974- 9-11 NYN 1
4 1 18 1974- 9-11 SLN 1
6 1 20 1984- 5- 8 MIL 1
7 1 23 1984- 5- 8 CHA 1
26 Offensive Innings, 2 game(s) (0-0-2)
Least Most
Runs Tot H Date Team Cnt H Date Team Cnt
1 2 9 1920- 5- 1 BRO 1 15 1920- 5- 1 BSN 1
The longest three-hitter was a sixteen-inning masterpiece by committee thrown by six Red Sox pitchers in 2011. The first eight Rays pitchers did almost as well, holding the Boston hitters to three hits in the first fifteen innings.
I said at the beginning that it was much easier to score a lot of runs with a small number of hits in shorter games, and this is shown by this last batch of charts. There are no games longer than fifteen innings where a team had more runs scored than hits. To be sure, there are a host of interesting games in these charts, but for the most part they are interesting because they were long, not because there was anything unusual about the relationship between their hits and runs.
I mentioned above that there were no games from ten to fourteen inning in which a team was held scoreless with more than fourteen hits (the nine-inning record). If you look past the fourteenth inning, however, you'll see two such games. One lasted fifteen innings and saw Walter Johnson beat Ray Collins and the Red Sox in 1913. It was one of Johnson's career high eleven shutouts (and 36 wins) that year and part of a scoreless inning streak of 37. Two months earlier, he had put together a streak that reached 55 2/3 innings. An even longer fifteen-hit shutout occurred a little more than four years later when two Pirate pitchers, Erskine Mayer and Wilbur Cooper beat Art Nehf and the Braves 2-0 in 21-innings.
Finally, although it can be determined from the charts above, I thought I'd present the most common number of runs scored for each number of innings.
Innings 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Runs 1 4 1 1 2 5 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3/5 7 1 4/5 2 1 3/4/6/7 1
And so as the saying goes, thanks for your patience.
Earlier this year, sports-reference.com published a blog by Alex Bonilla about the biggest comeback wins in baseball history, primarily to introduce baseball-reference's new page that tracks these kinds of things. They used win expectancy and a ton of play-by-play data to populate their list.
For those not familiar with win expectancy, the method calculates the likelihood of a team winning from nearly every game situation. By game situation, I mean it factors in where we are in the game (the top or bottom of each inning), the current situation on the field (all twenty-four possible combinations of runners on base and outs), and how far the team is ahead or behind. It looks like they collapse some of the data (the difference in the current score is capped at eleven runs), and (I'm assuming) all extra-innings are treated the same.
As the post points out, the need for play-by-play data limits the scope of the article to all the games since 1974 and most of those before that back to 1925. This got me to wondering if I could take the basic idea (looking for the most unlikely wins based upon win expectancy) but only considering the odds of winning at the start of each half-inning. Such an approach would allow us to calculate a similar list, but complete back to 1901.
The first step was to gather the data. So for each half-inning, I determined the won-loss record of the home based upon the run differential, again capping the difference at eleven.1
And here it is (best viewed in a really wide window):
--------------------------------------------- Home Team's Record When Behind ------------------------------------------- --- Tied --- ------------------------------------------------------ And Ahead -----------------------------------------------------
SIDE INN <=-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >=11
TOP 1 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 106213-90015 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0-0 0-0 0-0
BOT 1 0- 8 1- 13 1- 29 1- 48 5- 118 35- 353 167- 953 574- 2436 2014- 4841 5554- 8972 14527-15405 83334-56839 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0-0 0-0 0-0
TOP 2 0- 6 0- 11 0- 24 2- 34 4- 84 17- 269 102- 757 323- 1902 1204- 4072 3530- 7719 9711-13565 54392-47279 17023- 9212 10094-3459 5399-1131 2671-360 1055-102 384-22 181- 6 62- 0 28-1 15-0 16-0
BOT 2 0- 38 0- 61 4- 135 14- 251 31- 524 95-1115 346-1829 799- 3645 2364- 6860 6271-11938 15865-19071 47584-34296 15602- 6749 8887-2429 4673- 787 2222-213 891- 62 314- 7 142- 4 56- 0 28-1 12-0 13-0
TOP 3 0- 32 0- 47 3- 117 6- 208 15- 407 54- 954 224-1573 478- 3206 1625- 6027 4514-10705 11811-17693 35904-31535 21313-10977 13388-4184 7697-1548 4272-525 2352-184 1282-62 657-19 334- 10 148-2 74-0 62-0
BOT 3 2- 127 3- 127 8- 249 11- 520 51-1012 156-1976 505-3490 1192- 6051 3012- 9268 6837-13286 14829-17710 33218-23861 19603- 7914 12017-2912 6856-1036 3723-315 2023-116 1110-33 551- 9 260- 3 134-0 57-0 55-0
TOP 4 2- 109 0- 111 4- 206 7- 435 32- 830 90-1706 292-2981 721- 5260 1996- 8347 4809-12357 10951-16882 25682-23003 19936-10232 15102-4500 10565-1896 6972-732 4172-290 2334-99 1246-28 621- 7 327-2 152-0 200-2
BOT 4 3- 273 1- 288 11- 525 22- 926 63-1601 198-2726 487-4553 1210- 7298 3065-10842 6721-14593 13627-17185 24820-17212 18914- 7218 13905-2980 9492-1156 6039-433 3579-133 1977-53 1006-12 513- 5 272-1 129-1 159-1
TOP 5 0- 220 1- 229 5- 445 14- 738 33-1360 96-2295 264-3935 681- 6396 1887- 9907 4614-13696 9848-16791 19599-17563 19407- 9138 16599-4381 12191-1842 8066-690 5126-243 3234-98 1968-30 1127- 12 672-3 357-1 424-2
BOT 5 2- 555 2- 412 8- 732 25-1363 69-2243 174-3687 494-5945 1122- 8480 2702-11409 5895-14472 11538-15787 19797-13770 19193- 6575 15641-2860 11071-1126 7259-398 4512-133 2837-48 1672-11 979- 5 566-3 311-1 344-0
TOP 6 1- 468 1- 322 2- 621 10-1140 31-1878 91-3177 271-5278 635- 7630 1654-10733 3968-13829 8500-16013 16021-14547 18188- 7914 16292-3789 13003-1657 9617-627 6695-260 4421-82 2821-30 1673- 10 959-7 577-3 782-0
BOT 6 3- 919 0- 650 3-1039 22-1740 48-2741 143-4416 415-6837 967- 9410 2291-12477 5272-14752 10188-14915 16907-11280 18257- 5251 15659-2251 12037- 860 8623-311 5848-125 3765-22 2380-14 1413- 3 850-1 476-1 646-0
TOP 7 2- 760 1- 530 0- 877 7-1482 22-2302 52-3810 188-5956 463- 8508 1207-11708 3212-14429 6900-15712 13705-12573 17527- 6399 16687-2974 13954-1255 10523-460 7540-192 5093-56 3332-21 2248- 8 1399-1 887-2 1264-0
BOT 7 2-1309 1- 834 1-1330 11-2198 39-3383 86-5159 290-7406 641- 9989 1662-12743 4056-14910 8183-14698 15102- 9643 18258- 3948 16299-1585 12945- 582 9621-208 6682- 59 4452-23 2915- 5 1934- 2 1201-0 776-1 1056-0
TOP 8 1-1107 0- 698 1-1128 2-1889 13-2972 31-4467 111-6491 291- 9148 787-12172 2219-14929 5088-15787 12184-11051 17190- 4903 16705-2028 14200- 796 11385-306 8468- 95 5916-35 4023- 6 2791- 4 1831-2 1187-1 1789-0
BOT 8 1-1818 1-1033 1-1630 5-2552 22-3971 46-5633 151-7904 420-10631 1138-13399 2783-15184 6095-14847 13832- 8063 18501- 2233 16456- 779 13441- 226 10433- 81 7579- 20 5222-10 3546- 0 2429- 1 1583-0 1015-0 1513-0
TOP 9 0-1476 0- 906 1-1454 0-2191 2-3411 14-4984 41-7018 118- 9816 363-12718 1110-15311 2920-16693 10646- 9782 17638- 2717 17054-1039 14740- 332 11995-119 9089- 30 6549-15 4491- 1 3214- 2 2233-0 1505-0 2490-0
BOT 9 0-2262 0-1281 1-1987 1-3015 5-4428 22-6062 70-8344 152-11027 494-13476 1381-15568 3547-15918 12701- 6622 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0-0 0-0 0-0
TOP >=10 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 21099-19173 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0-0 0-0 0-0
BOT >=10 0- 3 0- 1 0- 7 0- 23 1- 41 0- 110 2- 251 10- 513 48- 1183 208- 2415 1054- 4471 19776-10154 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0-0 0-0 0-0
So for example, all of the rows other than the score-tied cell contain 0-0 for the beginning of the top of the first (since no one has a lead at the start of the game), with the score-tied cell containing the home team's record for all the games I looked at, which was 106213-90015. And similarly, all of the second to last row (the last two columns cover all the extra-innings) have no games in any of the score-not-tied cell, meaning that the score was always tied at the top of each extra inning.
To take an example from a non-trivial cell, the home team's record when heading into the bottom of the eighth inning down by eleven runs or more is 1-1818, meaning that all of those games produced only a single highly-improbable comeback. It came on June 15, 1925, when the Athletics turned a 15-4 deficit into a 17-15 victory courtesy of a 13-run outburst in that inning, a rally that in addition to defying some pretty incredible odds, turned right-hander Tom Glass into a winning pitcher for the first and only time in his career. Here is the line-score fror the game:
CLE A 0 4 2 2 4 2 1 0 0 - 15 24 0 PHI A 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 13 x - 17 19 2
But what are the odds of such a comeback? My first inclination (and one that will be used exclusively in the chart below) is to simply divide 1 by 1819 and say that such a turn of events could be expected to happen 0.0550% of the time. But before we take a claim like that too seriously, we should look at the cell immediately above that, the one that shows that a home team trailing by the same amount entering the TOP of the eighth went 1-1107. (And those of you who carefully examined the line-score above already know the game we're talking about.) But the point is not that we seem to be double-counting one extremely unlikely comeback, it's that the chance of a home team winning when entering the top of that inning down by eleven (1/1108 or 0.0903%) would appear to be nearly double that (1/1108 or 0.0903%) of the earlier case.
But this doesn't make sense: the only difference between the two is that in the top of the 8th, the visiting team has an extra half-inning to increase their lead. The problem is that the likelihood of very improbable comebacks is determined, not necessarily by how extraordinarily difficult they are, but by how common the situation is. So here are two very improbable comebacks by the home team in our data when they trailed by eleven or more runs at the start of the top or bottom of the 8th inning. We would judge the bottom of the inning comeback to be more probable simply because that situation was more common.
To take another example, there have been fourteen games in which a team scored ten runs in the top of the first inning. The first came in 1924, when the Yankees nearly saw their huge lead disappear (the tying run was thrown out trying to go from first to third on a single to end the bottom of the eighth). And the last occurred last May when Dylan Bundy gave up four homers, a walk and single without retiring a batter to help power the Royals to a romp over the hapless Orioles. But on June 8, 1989, the Pirates took a ten run lead into the bottom of the first only to see it gradually disappear in a game made famous by Pirates announcer Jim Rooker's promise to walk all the way home to Pittsburgh if his team managed to lose the game, which they did in a Phillies comeback capped by a five-run rally in the bottom of the eighth.
It was by all accounts an amazing game. Steve Jeltz, who came into the game having hit two career home runs (in 581 games), matched that total (hitting one from each side of the plate) in the consecutive at-bats in the span of three innings. Manager Nick Leyva said it was the most amazing game he'd ever been associated with, while Philadelphia Inquirer writer Peter Pascarelli wrote that it was a "miracle comeback that will go down as one of the Phillies' proudest and most implausible moments ever." But according to win expectancy, it had a 7.14% chance of happening (one in fourteen). This was only slightly less probable than the 7.26% chance a visiting team has of winning a game when trailing by five runs heading into the top of the third.
So how do we fix this? Beats me.2 The way I worked around it was to add the word "Perhaps" to the article's title. But I do think it's a problem with this methodology even when dealing with very large datasets (and I hope we can agree that 194,651 games qualifies as very large).
I referred above to a chart I would be showing, but one more point before we get there. In my original version of the chart, the comebacks in 4th, 11th and 17th place all came in a game not mentioned in the Alex Bonilla's piece (because it came in 1901). It occurred in the first game ever played by the Detroit Tigers (or the Milwaukee Brewers, soon to be the St. Louis Browns) and here is that game's line score:
MIL A 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 3 0 - 13 DET A 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 10 - 14
Just for fun, here are chances of the Tigers winning at the start of each of the last seven half-innings:
SIDE INN W L Pct BOT 6 967- 9419 9.3311 TOP 7 463- 8508 5.1611 BOT 7 39- 3383 1.1397 TOP 8 13- 2972 0.4355 BOT 8 1- 1033 0.0967 17th place TOP 9 1- 1454 0.0687 11th place BOT 9 1- 1987 0.0503 4th place
I mention this primarily because in the list below, I have eliminated duplicate games, keeping only the one when their odds were the longest.
So without further ado, the chart:
Rank Date Won HV Lost Inning RD Pct BRR 1 1922- 7- 7(2) DET V WS1 TOP 9 7 0.0223 NC 2 1901- 5-23 CLE H WS1 BOT 9 -8 0.0332 NC 3 1990- 8-21 PHI V LAN BOT 8 8 0.0412 2 4 1901- 4-25 DET H MLA BOT 9 -9 0.0503 NC 5 1925- 6-15 PHA H CLE BOT 8 -11 0.0550 6 6 1986- 8-29 CAL H DET TOP 9 -7 0.0586 17 6 1994- 5-10 ATL H PHI TOP 9 -7 0.0586 20 8 2001- 8- 5 CLE H SEA BOT 8 -9 0.0613 5 9 1934- 8-21 CLE V PHA TOP 9 8 0.0622 11 10 1976- 4-17 PHI V CHN TOP 7 9 0.0714 26 11 2009- 6-30 BAL H BOS BOT 7 -9 0.0751 85 12 1931- 7-28 CHA V NYA BOT 7 8 0.1033 9 12 1989- 6- 4 TOR V BOS BOT 7 8 0.1033 14 14 1950- 5-18 BRO H SLN TOP 8 -8 0.1058 44 14 2009- 5-25 CLE H TBA TOP 8 -8 0.1058 47 16 1961- 6-23 PHI V PIT TOP 8 9 0.1091 10 17 1961- 6-18(1) BOS H WS2 BOT 9 -7 0.1128 4 17 1994- 4-15 CAL H TOR BOT 9 -7 0.1128 37 17 2000- 5-22(1) MIL H HOU BOT 9 -7 0.1128 28 20 1936- 6-17 SLA H PHA BOT 7 -10 0.1198 - 21 1947- 8-20 NYA V DET TOP 8 8 0.1431 27 21 1947- 9- 8 NY1 V PIT TOP 8 8 0.1431 43 21 1972- 9- 2 NYN V HOU TOP 8 8 0.1431 18 24 1919- 8-30(2) DET V SLA TOP 8 7 0.1489 NC 24 1946- 6-10 PHI V CHN TOP 8 7 0.1489 60 24 1951- 6- 4 CIN V BSN TOP 8 7 0.1489 77 24 1953- 8-18 WS1 V NYA TOP 8 7 0.1489 41 24 1995- 7- 2 BAL V TOR TOP 8 7 0.1489 - 24 2003- 6-28 FLO V BOS TOP 8 7 0.1489 - 30 1911- 5-13 BOS V DET BOT 8 6 0.1911 NC 30 1918- 5- 8 CIN V SLN BOT 8 6 0.1911 NC 30 1918- 8-16 DET V WS1 BOT 8 6 0.1911 NC 30 1919- 5- 5 CHN V CIN BOT 8 6 0.1911 NC 30 1921- 9- 8(1) PHI V BSN BOT 8 6 0.1911 NC 30 1925- 5- 7 NY1 V PHI BOT 8 6 0.1911 24 30 1937- 7-13 NY1 V PHI BOT 8 6 0.1911 68 30 1958- 5- 8 CIN V CHN BOT 8 6 0.1911 50 30 1973- 7-17 NYN V ATL BOT 8 6 0.1911 53 39 1933- 5-27 NYA H CHA BOT 8 -8 0.1955 23 39 1974- 6-10 SDN H PIT BOT 8 -8 0.1955 19 39 1999- 8-31 CLE H ANA BOT 8 -8 0.1955 67 42 1923- 7- 3 DET V CLE BOT 6 8 0.2119 NC 42 2012- 4-21 NYA V BOS BOT 6 8 0.2119 58 44 1933- 6-11(1) PIT V SLN TOP 9 6 0.2285 59 44 1937- 6- 8 BOS V CLE TOP 9 6 0.2285 72 44 1952- 6-29(1) CHN V CIN TOP 9 6 0.2285 1 44 1975- 7-27(2) BAL V MIL TOP 9 6 0.2285 25 44 1998- 8-26 FLO V SLN TOP 9 6 0.2285 45 44 2005- 5- 2 SLN V CIN TOP 9 6 0.2285 46
The only things here that might need explanation are:
HV - whether the winning team was home or visiting.
RD - the run differential of the home team. So all the V's will have positive numbers
in this field and all the home teams, negative (or else they wouldn't be comebacks).
Pct - the number of times such a comeback would be expected in 100 occurances of the situation.
BRR - baseball-reference's ranking for the same game.
- means it didn't make the list but was included in their study
NC means it wasn't included in the study
It's probably not that much of a surprise, but all of the top ten entries in baseball-reference list that don't appear in ours involved a situation where the bases were empty and two were out. The odds of a comeback weren't quite as long when the inning started.
One last word and then I'll shut up: you wouldn't know it from the list above, but I did include post-season games (although not All-Star games, since those are exhibitions where winning is usually an afterthought). The post-season games that managed to crack the top 631:
Date Won HV Lost Inning RD Pct BRR OUR 1929-10-12 PHA H CHN BOT 7 -8 0.4980 1 118 1992-10-11 TOR V OAK BOT 7 5 0.8752 4 346 1993-10-20 TOR V PHI TOP 8 5 1.1094 3 483 2008-10-16 BOS H TBA BOT 7 -7 1.1397 2 518
On this chart:
BRR - baseball-reference's ranking on their post-season list. OUR - the ranking on our list.
I good blather on about some of the games on the lists above, mentioning (for example) that the Tigers comeback in 1918 (tied for 30th on the first list) required seven extra-innings to complete once they had rallied for six in the top of the ninth to tie, or that Walter Johnson pitched all of those innings for the Senators, part of a record-setting 54 1/3 extra-innings he pitched that season (no one else is even close), but I'm guessing that's more than enough for now.
Notes:1A minor technical point: I ignored any forfeit wins or losses as well as any abbreviated games.
2You might be tempted here to forego real game data and opt instead for the results from millions of simulated games. This isn't necessarily a bad idea, but it does mean trusting upon the ability of your similator to accurately capture the sense of dread and panic on the part of the collapsing team as they see their once insurmountable lead slip away while their fifth best reliever staggers in from the bullpen to try to put a end to the carnage.